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What was the 'future' electronic development that Leon Bagrit wasn't able
to foresee?
Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. Who could have imagined, in
the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would
be as common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s, computers were common
enough, but only in big business, government departments, and large
organizations. These were the so-called mainframe machines. Mainframe computers
were very large indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing
full-time technicians and run on specially-written software. Though these large
machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small
powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.
In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA. It
can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to
the future. This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an
Apple. In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first
Personal Computer. This ran on an "operating system" called DOS, produced by a
then small company named Microsoft. The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied.
From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly
home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.
Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable
that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict
some of the uses of computers which we know today. Bagrit dismissed the idea
that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would "rule the world",
which people liked to believe in those days. Bagrit foresaw a time when
computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable
of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes,
when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when
they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical
work. All these computer uses have become commonplace. Of course, Leon Bagrit
could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide
system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the
world by using computers linked to telephone networks. Nor could he have
foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known
subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if
we want to. Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful
and cheaper and cheaper. This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions
particularly remarkable. If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might
be able to tell us what to expect in the next 50 years.
New words and expressions 生词与短语
notoriously
adv. (尤指因坏事)众所周知地
full-time
adj. 专职的
technician
n. 技师
software
n. 软件
IBM
(美国)国际商用机器公司(International Business Machines)
DOS
磁盘操作系统(Disk Operating System)
Microsoft
n. (美国)微软公司
user-friendly
adj. 容易操作的，好用的
mainframe
n. 主机，中央处理机
multimedia
adj. 多媒体的
alternative
adj. 选择的
diagnose
v. 诊断
relieve
v. 减轻
accountant
n. 会计
repetitive
adj. 重复的
clerical
adj. 办公室工作的
Internet
n. 国际交互网
network
n. 网络
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发表于 2016-7-11 23:04:33