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Abe warns over Japan inflation target
Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe has for the first time raised the possibility that the world’s third-largest economy could struggle to achieve the target of 2 per cent inflation within two years that he has made a pillar of his economic policy.
日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)首次承认，全球第三大经济体可能难以在两年内实现2%通胀的目标。安倍将这一目标列为其经济政策的支柱之一。
“The economy is a living thing and we don’t know what will happen around the world. What is important is to aim steadily for the target,” Mr Abe told parliament on the eve of Haruhiko Kuroda’s first board meeting as Bank of Japan governor.
“经济是一个活的东西，我们不知道世界各地将会发生什么事。重要的是牢牢盯住目标，”安倍在日本国会表示。与此同时，黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)即将首次作为日本央行(BOJ)行长召集理事会会议。
In an exchange with Seiji Maehara, an opposition politician and former economy minister, Mr Abe said the BoJ should not pursue the inflation target “at all costs”.
安倍在回应反对党政界人士、前外务大臣前原诚司(Seiji Maehara)的发言时表示，日本央行不应当“不惜一切代价”达到通胀目标。
Since Mr Abe swept to victory in December on a platform of aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus to overturn more than a decade of deflation, the yen has fallen steeply against leading currencies, sending the stock market higher.
安倍在去年12月高票当选首相，他的竞选纲领就是出台激进的货币与财政刺激，扭转持续逾10年的通缩。自他当选以来，日元对其他主要货币大幅走低，推动日本股市上涨。
But amid recent mostly weak economic data, expectations of inflation have yet to pick up significantly, suggesting the target may be more difficult to reach than Mr Abe has imagined. Last month, Taro Aso, his deputy who also serves as finance minister, cast doubt on the target, saying a “considerable period of time” was needed to reach it.
但在近期经济数据大多趋于疲弱的背景下，日本的通胀预期仍未显著抬高。这似乎表明，达到通胀目标的难度可能超出安倍的想象。上月，日本副首相兼财务大臣麻生太郎(Taro Aso)对通胀目标表示怀疑，称“需要相当长时间”才能达到这个目标。
“Having achieved what he set out to do, which was to install Mr Kuroda at the BoJ, he may be positioning himself to take a less aggressive, more reasonable position,” said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at BNP Paribas.
“在做到了自己当初要做的事、即任命黑田东彦执掌日本央行之后，安倍可能在将自己定位于一个不那么激进、比较合理的立场，”法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)经济学家白石洋(Hiroshi Shiraishi)表示。
However, Mr Shirashi added that Mr Abe would “continue to expect the BoJ to act aggressively and to implement policy to achieve that 2 per cent target”.
不过，白石补充说，安倍将“继续期待日本央行为实现2%的通胀目标采取大刀阔斧的行动、落实相关政策。”
Japanese media cited Mr Abe as saying that the central bank’s “first goal” was to “display a strong commitment to create so-called inflationary expectations”, which he said would ultimately lead to the 2 per cent target being reached.
日本媒体援引安倍的话称，日本央行的“第一个目标”是“展现出营造通胀预期的坚定承诺”——安倍表示，这最终将推动通胀达到2%。
“If the target can’t be met, it will be the BoJ’s responsibility to explain,” Mr Abe said, alluding to his longstanding threat to review the 1998 law enshrining the central bank’s independence from government.
“如果达不到这个目标，日本央行将有责任作出解释，”安倍表示。他此处暗指的是自己长期以来的一个主张，即威胁要重审1998年通过的保障日本央行独立于政府的法律。
On Wednesday, Mr Kuroda takes charge of his first two-day meeting of the BoJ’s policy board, with investors expecting a shift in tone and direction from the Shirakawa era.
周三，黑田将首次主持为期两天的日本央行政策委员会会议。投资者预期，该委员会将制定有别于前任央行行长白川方明(Masaaki Shirakawa)时代的基调和指引方向。
Mr Kuroda last week said the BoJ would consider combining its monthly bond purchases and asset-purchase fund, as well as buying more debt with longer maturities.
黑田上周表示，日本央行将考虑把月度债券购买与资产购买基金结合起来，同时买入更多期限较长的债务。
“BoJ Governor Kuroda’s real journey to raise the inflation expectation among the general public and domestic investors will start from this Thursday, but it appears a challenging and long one,” said Masamichi Adachi, an economist at JPMorgan and a former BoJ official.
“日本央行行长黑田东彦抬高公众和国内投资者通胀预期的真正征程，将从本周四开始，但这似乎是一条充满挑战和漫长的道路，”摩根大通(JPMorgan)经济学家、前日本央行官员正道安达(Masamichi Adachi)表示。
A quarterly BoJ survey released on Monday showed that the public’s expectations of inflation over the next five years had not changed much since the last time the survey was carried out, between November and December.
日本央行周一发布的季度调查显示，自去年11月至12月间的上次调查以来，公众对未来5年通胀的预期基本没有什么变化。 |
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发表于 2016-7-11 09:57:22