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Global issues simmer as prospects brighten
In the years before the financial crisis, boundless optimism was the default setting for Davos man. The World Economic Forum was a celebration of globalisation and its possibilities. But the financial crisis put a stop to all that. The last four Davos forums have been gloomy affairs, dominated by a sense that global capitalism is in crisis. Delegates worried about everything – the euro, the banks, inequality, unempIoyment.
在金融危机爆发之前，参加达沃斯(Davos)论坛的人士心中总是抱着无尽的乐观。达沃斯世界经济论坛曾是赞美全球化及其带来的可能性的盛会。但这一切因金融危机戛然而止。前四届达沃斯论坛笼罩着一股全球资本主义穷途末路之感。代表们对一切都忧心忡忡——欧元、银行业、不平等问题、失业等等。
It is possible, however, that – this year – the sense of crisis will lift. The fear that the euro could crash and burn within weeks – which was voiced openly at last year’s forum – has dissipated, and with it so has the biggest threat hovering over the world economy. There will still be earnest, even urgent, calls for reform in Europe. But the panic has gone.
然而，今年这种危机感可能消除。对欧元可能在几周之内彻底崩溃瓦解的担心已经消散——而去年的论坛还在公开讨论欧元崩溃的可能性，因此，萦绕全球经济的最大威胁解除了。人们仍然会认真、甚至迫切地呼吁欧洲实施改革。但恐慌已经消退。
The gloom clouds have also drifted away from the two largest economies in the world – the US and China. The US economy is growing at well over 2 per cent a year and unemployment is falling. Above all, there is great excitement at the prospect that the shale-gas boom could lead to energy independence for the US and a big boost to the competitiveness of American industry. The heads of big oil and chemical firms – such as Shell, BP and Dow – are always well represented at Davos, and they will be listened to with particular attention this year.
笼罩在美国和中国两个全球最大的经济体头上的乌云也消散了。今年美国经济增长率将超过2%，失业率也在下降。毕竟，页岩气繁荣可能引领美国走向能源独立，并大幅提升美国工业的竞争力，这样的前景大大地振奋人心。壳牌(Shell)、英国石油(BP)和陶氏化学(Dow Chemical)等石化企业的首脑在达沃斯论坛上一向备受瞩目，今年人们会尤为专注地倾听他们的言论。
Opinion about India has gone through a similar cycle. In the middle of last year, slowing growth and political paralysis fed a mood of growing cynicism about the country’s prospects. But, in recent months, the reform process has restarted and it has become clear that growth this year will exceed 5 per cent. The gloom was overdone.
关于印度的看法也经历了类似的周期。去年年中，印度经济增长放缓，政治瘫痪，因此人们越来越质疑印度的前景。但最近几个月，印度重启改革进程，2012年的增长率肯定会超过5%。悲观态度有点杞人忧天了。
Even the prospects for Japan – a nation that has disappointed its boosters for 20 years – are exciting a bit more interest, with a new reformist government, led by Shinzo Abe, taking power in Tokyo.
甚至连日本这个过去20年来任何刺激措施都不见成效的国家，也激起了人们更浓厚的兴趣，原因是以安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)为首的新一届改革派政府上台。
The balance between optimism and pessimism is also always affected by personal circumstances, as much as rational analysis. So the mood of Davos man will be lifted by the fact that the last year has seen a bull run for stocks. This month the S and P 500 hit a five-year high, and the FTSE All-World index is at its highest level for 18 months. Even the bankers are liable to arrive in Davos with some of their old swagger restored. After all, there have been no major scandals, collapses or arrests for months.
乐观与悲观之间的天平总是既受到个人环境的影响，也受到理性分析的影响。因此，去年股市历经牛市，这将振奋达沃斯论坛与会者的情绪。这个月，标准普尔500指数(S and P 500)创下5年来的新高，富时环球指数(FTSE All-World)也达到18个月来的最高水平。甚至连银行家参加这次达沃斯论坛时，都有可能恢复几丝昔日神气活现的派头。毕竟，银行业已经数月没有发生丑闻、破产或者被捕事件了。
All these factors are likely to mean that this year’s Davos will see the forum once again focusing as much on opportunities as on threats. (The ostensible theme for the forum is “Resilient Dynamism” which – in the way of Davos slogans – is earnest, but uninformative.)
所有这些因素都可能意味着，今年的达沃斯论坛将再次专注于如何抓住机遇，迎接挑战。(这次论坛的表面主题是“弹性与动力”(Resilient Dynamism)，这是典型的达沃斯式口号，虽然诚挚，但没有传递什么信息。) |
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发表于 2016-7-11 09:56:40