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Asia's economic resilience amid the global slowdown masks adisturbing trend -- a swift rise in debt levels across the region ascompanies and households load up on cheap credit.
在全球经济减速之际，亚洲的经济恢复力掩盖了一股令人不安的趋势：该地区债务水平迅速高涨，公司和家庭背负了太多低息贷款。
Asia has been able to withstand some of the economic and financial distress felt elsewhere, largelydue to the sound balance sheets with which local businesses entered the crisis. That has madecountries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand rare oases of increasing consumer demand.
亚洲之所以一直有能力抵御曾令世界其它地区深陷其中的经济和金融困境，主要在于发生危机时该地企业有着稳健的资产负债表。这也让印尼、马来西亚和泰国等亚洲国家成为消费需求不断增长的罕见绿洲。
But in a region traditionally characterized by abundant household savings, leverage levels are onthe rise -- rapidly in many areas -- as companies and consumers become more comfortableborrowing at historically low rates.
但在亚洲这样一个传统上家庭存款充足的地区，杠杆水平正不断上升(很多地方上升地还很快)，因为企业和消费者越来越习惯使用低息贷款。亚洲国家的利率目前处于历史低点。
While bodies like the World Bank have encouraged Asian countries to rely more on domesticdemand, some economists warn that the credit growth fueling the region's prosperity could besetting it up for another crisis.
虽然世界银行(World Bank)等机构一直鼓励亚洲国家更多地依赖内需，但也有经济学家警告说，带动亚洲地区繁荣的信贷增长可能会让亚洲面临另一场危机。
'I believe we are at the beginning of a major debt cycle in Asia,' said Frederic Neumann, co-head ofAsian economic research at HSBC. 'We are certainly seeing the early symptoms of a debt bubbleemerging, and I think it's worth keeping a close eye on.'
汇丰银行(HSBC)亚洲经济研究联席主管范力民(Frederic Neumann)说，我认为亚洲现在处于一个债务大循环的开始，我们现在确实看到了出现债务泡沫的初期症状，我认为应对此密切关注。
Bank credit as a proportion of gross domestic product in Asia excluding Japan -- a measure oflending that is largely destined for households and companies -- fell to around 80% in the earlyyears of this century, but has since picked up, with the pace of gain over the past two years beingparticularly marked, according to HSBC data.
汇丰数据显示，银行贷款占亚洲(日本除外)本地生产总值(GDP)的比例在本世纪头几年降到了80%左右，但之后便有所上升，过去两年的增长步伐尤其明显。这个比率是衡量贷款水平的一个标准，该贷款主要面向家庭和企业。
The measure gauges 'exuberance' in an economy and is used by economists as an early-warningsignal of a potentially dangerous buildup in credit. The International Monetary Fund has said that arise in the credit-to-GDP ratio of above five percentage points a year, accompanied by an increasein equities prices of at least 15%, indicates a 20% chance of a crisis within the next two years.
用这个标准可衡量一个经济体的繁荣程度，经济学家把它当作信贷增长可能存在危险的一个预警信号。国际货币基金组织(IMF)说，一个经济体其信贷与GDP之比的上升速率若每年超过五个百分点，同时若还伴有股票价格至少上涨15%的现象，那么就表明未来两年该经济体发生经济危机的可能性为20%。
By June, Asia's credit-to-GDP ratio had climbed to 104% -- surpassing levels seen at the time ofthe region's financial crisis of the late '90s -- from 82% in December 2007. By contrast, the eurozone's ratio had risen more slowly to 131% from 123%, while the U.S. ratio had ticked down to 62% from 63%.
到今年6月，亚洲的信贷总额与GDP之比从2007年12月的82%攀升至104%，超过上世纪90年代末亚洲金融危机时的水平。相比之下，同期欧元区的信贷总额与GDP之比的上升步伐则比较缓慢，仅从123%升至131%，而美国的比率则从63%微降至62%。 |
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发表于 2016-7-11 09:56:14