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Australia’s resource boom might be cooling, but in the port townof Gladstone on Queensland’s central coast it does not feel thatway. On the surface at least it appears to be a boom town, withworkers in luminous high-visibility vests clogging streetsscattered with billboards recruiting for jobs such as “advancedrigger” and “outdoor technician”.
澳大利亚的资源热潮或许已经开始降温，但走在位于昆士兰州(Queensland)中央海岸的港口城市格拉德斯通(Gladstone)，给人的感觉却并非如此。至少从表面上看，格拉德斯通是一座繁荣的城市。街道上挤满了身穿会发光的极其显眼的马甲的工人，不时可见招聘“熟练装配工”以及“户外技工”等岗位的告示牌。
The contrast with recent headlines, and government ministers, declaring the end of Australia’sresource boom could not be more stark in this town, where cleaners can earn as much asA$2,000 ($2,080) a week with overtime. “Gladstone was a small town,” says Les, a 56-year-oldcrane driver who has spent most of his working life there. “Now it’s a madhouse. People are makinglots of money [and] there’s not enough housing.”
而近期媒体报道以及澳大利亚政府的部长们则宣称澳大利亚的资源热潮即将终结，这种论调与格拉德斯通的实际情况形成了鲜明对比。在这里，清洁工算上加班每周最多可以挣得2000澳元（合2080美元）。今年56岁的吊车司机莱斯(Les)在格拉德斯通工作了大半辈子，他说：“格拉德斯通原来是一座小城市，现在变得跟疯人院一样闹哄哄的，人们赚了大把钞票，在城里甚至找不到足够的住房。”
Australia’s exposure to the commodity demand of China, India and other rising Asian economieshas driven expansion in towns such as Gladstone and given the country an annual growth rate ofabout 3 per cent and an unemployment rate of just 5.4 per cent. But falls in the prices of keyexports, rising labour costs and a high Australian dollar have seen several multibillion-dollar projectsaxed or postponed.
中国、印度以及其他新兴亚洲经济体对澳大利亚大宗商品的需求，推动了格拉德斯通等城市的经济扩张，使澳大利亚年经济增长率达到3%左右，而失业率仅为5.4%。但受关键出口商品价格下跌、劳动力成本上升以及澳元汇率走强影响，目前已有数个规模高达数十亿美元的项目被取消或延期。
The Reserve Bank of Australia last month scaled down its forecasts for the peak of the investmentboom. It now expects big resource projects to stop contributing to the country’s growth sometime next year, after peaking at an unprecedented 8 per cent of gross domestic product, andraised questions about where the economy will find new growth.
澳大利亚央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)上月下调了对于投资热潮顶部的预期。该行目前预计，到明年某个时候，大型资源类项目将不能再为澳大利亚的经济增长贡献力量，在这之前该领域在澳大利亚国内生产总值(GDP)中的比重达到前所未有的8%。该行对澳大利亚能否找到新的经济增长点发出了疑问。
The main source of activity in Gladstone is the construction of three big gas liquefaction plants onan island 3.5km from the mainland. Once completed, these projects will generate billions of dollarsof export revenues and royalties for decades to come.
格拉德斯通的主要经济活动是由正在距离陆地3.5公里的一座岛上修建的三座大型天然气液化工厂带动的。这些项目一旦建成，将在未来数十年里为当地带来几十亿美元的出口收入以及土地使用费收入。
Gladstone, population 32,000 – where a fifth of the working population is employed in resourceindustries – is one reason why many Australians are not ready to write off the resources boom justyet. But at some stage in the near future other parts of the Australian economy, such as retail andconstruction, will need to pick up the slack and provide the jobs that will inevitably be lost inmining.
格拉德斯通有3.2万人口，其中在资源行业就业的劳动力占比高达五分之一，这也是为什么澳大利亚人还没有对资源热潮降温做好准备的原因。但在不远的将来，澳大利亚经济的其他板块——如零售、建筑等——将必须接过接力棒，为矿产行业不可避免将会出现的失业人潮提供工作岗位。
Not everybody is convinced the transition will be a smooth one.
不是每个人都认为这一转型过程将是一帆风顺的
“We are a little sceptical of this idea and we think it will require more stimulus from the RBA,” saysSaul Eslake, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who says annual GDP growth will slowfrom 3.5 per cent this year, to 2.3 per cent in 2013. “There will be a loss of momentum and wedon’t think some of these workers will find new jobs. That’s why we’ve got the unemployment raterising to 5.9 per cent next year.”
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的经济学家索尔 埃斯雷克(Saul Eslake)表示：“我们对于澳大利亚经济转型持怀疑态度，我们认为澳大利亚央行有必要出台更多的经济刺激措施。”埃斯雷克预计，澳大利亚今年GDP增速将放缓至3.5%，并将于2013年进一步放缓至2.3%。他指出：“澳大利亚的经济增长将失去动力，我们认为矿产领域的一部分失业工人将找不到新的工作。这也是我们认为明年澳大利亚的失业率将升至5.9%的原因。”
For Australia’s minority Labor government the stakes are high. An election will be held next yearand it has staked its reputation on returning the budget to a slim surplus, something that will bedifficult to achieve unless commodity prices pick up.
对澳大利亚的少数派工党政府来说，这个问题关系重大。明年澳大利亚将举行大选，工党已经承诺将使财政预算恢复到少量盈余状态，但除非大宗商品价格走势好转，这个目标很难实现。 |
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发表于 2016-7-11 09:55:49