双语新闻：选后美国再临“财政悬崖”

英语自学网

　　A decade ago, economists sometimes like to say, the west wasexperiencing an era of “Great Moderation”; at least, in the sensethat inflation was tame, central bankers looked wise andeconomic growth assured. Then, when the financial crisiserupted, moderation was replaced by an Age of Turbulence (touse the ironically apt title of Alan Greenspan’s memoir).
        　　十年前，经济学家有时候喜欢说西方正在经历“大缓和”(Great Moderation)时代，至少从以下特征来看确实如此：通胀被驯服，央行行长们看起来很高明，并且经济增长也得到了保障。接着，金融危机爆发了，“大缓和”时代让位给了“动荡年代”(Age of Turbulence)（具有讽刺意味的是，在这里用艾伦 格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)回忆录的书名非常贴切）。
        　　But now, a third phrase has taken hold: an era of political brinkmanship. In the aftermath ofPresident Barack Obama’s victory on Tuesday, there is intense speculation among investors aboutwhether America will fall off a fiscal cliff at the end of the year, as it hits the trifecta of a debt ceiling, the expiry of Bush-era tax cuts and pre-planned spending cuts.
        　　但如今，第三个短语又开始大行其道：政治边缘政策时代。本周二巴拉克 奥巴马(Barack Obama)竞选连任成功之后，投资者们纷纷猜测今年底美国是否会跌落财政悬崖，这是因为美国目前正面临三大难题——撞上债务上限、小布什时代减税政策到期以及事先计划好的削减开支计划。
        　　But what probably looms now is not a simple, binary “fall” – or a grandiose bargain to avert thatblow – but a series of rolling showdowns. In the coming months, politicians may tiptoe to the brinkof the cliff; they may even spark some mini-crises, by failing to cut a deal before, say, the debtceiling expires, or tax rises loom. But I suspect they will then tiptoe back from disaster, withdelaying mechanisms, before embarking on yet more brinkmanship. This game of cliff- dancingcould last a long time.
        　　但目前隐现的危机不是那种简单的二元选择——要么“跌落”，要么通过声势浩大的讨价还价“避免跌落”，而是一系列接踵而来的摊牌。在接下来的几个月，政治人物们可能会踮脚走到“悬崖”边缘，甚至可能在债务上限问题解决之前，或者减税政策到期之前仍不能达成协议，从而引发一些小型危机。但我怀疑，他们到时会通过拖延战术踮脚后退以防止触发灾难，然后再采取更多的边缘政策手法。这种“悬崖边起舞”的游戏会持续很长时间。
        　　Some senior Obama officials strongly reject this scenario. After all, they argue, the results fromTuesday’s election should give the president confidence to force a grand fiscal deal, particularlysince he has less incentive to appease voters in his second (final) term. And as politicians have beenarguing about fiscal issues for more than two years, the terms have at least been laid out.
        　　奥巴马政府的一些高级官员强烈反对这种假设。他们辩称，毕竟，周二的大选结果会给奥巴马带来足够信心，帮他强力促成一项重大的财政协议，特别是他在第二任期（也是最后任期）内取悦选民的动机已没那么强烈。此外，由于政治人物们就财政问题已争论了两年多，起码各种意见都已摆上了台面
        　　Thus there is no need to fret about the President’s failure to back the 2010 Bowles-Simpsonbipartisan plan for tax rises and spending cuts, optimists insist; what matters is that this schemeexists as a starting point for debate, and that will accelerate the negotiation process.
            
            

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        　　乐观主义者坚持认为，没必要担心奥巴马不支持2010年鲍尔斯-辛普森(Bowles-Simpson)两党委员会提出的增税及减支提案。重要的是，该提案可以作为辩论的出发点，这样做将会加快谈判进程
        　　There is a third issue too: American business leaders are now – belatedly – speaking up, along withthe Federal Reserve, and pushing for a grand fiscal deal, be that via the Bowles-Simpson plan orsomething similar. That should also raise the chance that Mr Obama will deliver a grand bargain. Orso the argument goes
        　　还有第三个问题：美国商界领袖与美联储(Federal Reserve)一起发出了迟来的呼声，督促尽快达成重大财政协议——不管这一协议是基于鲍尔斯-辛普森提案还是别的类似方案。他们的呼声应会增加奥巴马促过重大协议的可能性。观点大抵如此
        　　But the problem is that for almost every factor on that “optimist” list, there is something thatoffsets it. For example, the president might now have more incentive to push for a grand bargain, but it is unclear whether the Republican parts of Congress are willing to do this too
        　　但问题是，几乎每一项积极因素都受到相应了制约。例如，现在总统或许更有动力促成“大妥协”，但国会的共和党势力是否愿意配合仍未可知
        　　Similarly, while business leaders are now pushing for a grand fiscal deal, there is still no dramaticexternal event that could shock both political camps into compromise. This matters. After all, Congress only agreed to back the financial rescue programme in 2008 after the markets crashed. But now the markets are extraordinarily quiet, partly due to the Federal Reserve’s policies; indeed, the 10-year Treasury yield has actually dropped this week. And dire warnings from rating agencies – or even the International Monetary Fund – have lost some of their ability to shock. UnlessAmerica does fall off that “cliff”, the sense of drama may stay distinctly muted.
        　　同样道理，尽管商界领袖在努力推动促成一项重大财政协议，但尚无戏剧性的外部事件能够震慑两大阵营，促使它们达成妥协。这一点非常重要。在2008年，当市场发生崩溃后，国会毕竟同意了支持财政救助计划。然而，在美联储(Federal Reserve)政策的部分影响下，市场眼下出奇地安静；事实上，10年期美国债券的收益率本周出现了下滑。同样，评级机构乃至国际货币基金组织(IMF)的严重警告也没能掀起多大波澜。除非美国真的摔下“悬崖”，否则可能产生不了戏剧性效果。