双语新闻：美国制造业即将复兴？

英语自学网

Don’t believe the hype – the US is still in a sorrystate
        　　In a waning presidential first term nothing compares to theimportance of securing another one. In Barack Obama’s case, there is an added spur to his drive for re-election. The presidentbelieves the American economy will spring back to life over thenext four years and cannot abide the thought of Mitt Romneyreaping the credit.
        　　在首个总统任期即将结束之时，没有什么事情比确保连任更重要。对于巴拉克 奥巴马(BarackObama)来说，驱使他争取连任的还有一个因素。这位美国总统认为，未来四年美国经济将重新焕发活力，因此他无法容忍米特 罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)坐享其成。
        　　Mr Obama’s impulse is more than understandable. However unearned, an economic revival thatcoincided with a Romney first term would easily be marketed as a “Romney boom”. But even if – as many expect – Mr Obama wins on 6 November, he should be wary of the growing belief inAmerica’s impending manufacturing renaissance.
        　　奥巴马的动机完全可以理解：如果罗姆尼当选，那么碰巧会在他首个任期内出现的经济回暖就很可能会被宣扬为“罗姆尼繁荣”，即使他对此毫无贡献。但是，即使奥巴马像很多人预期的那样在11月6日赢得选战，他也应当对所谓美国制造业即将复兴的观点保持警惕——现在有越来越多的人相信这一观点。
        　　Too much of it is based on hope. America’s pallid – and again waning – economic recovery isalready into its fourth year. The typical length of the business cycle is about seven years. Itrequires optimism at this stage to believe the patient is about to arise and go for a jog.
        　　这一观点的主观愿望成分过重。美国苍白无力且势头再次减弱的经济复苏已走入第四个年头。通常来说，一个完整的经济周期大约要七年时间。在现阶段就相信这位“病人”马上能下床慢跑的人，确实需要点乐观主义精神。
        　　Here is the case for America’s coming manufacturing boom. First, the US is in the early stages of anenergy windfall that will transform its attractiveness as a location to do business. In addition to theunfolding energy supply shock, which will lower the cost of electricity and the feed-in stock formany kinds of production, the cost of American labour looks increasingly attractive next to wageinflation in China and other emerging market economies.
        　　支持美国制造业即将复兴的理由如下。首先，美国正处于一场意外的能源繁荣的早期阶段，这场繁荣将大大提升在美国从事制造业的吸引力。除了日益显现的能源供给冲击（它将拉低电力以及多种生产所需中间原料的成本）之外，美国的劳动力成本也因中国和其他新兴市场经济体工资水平上涨而显得愈发具有吸引力。
        　　According to the Boston Consulting Group the US could create between 2m and 5m newmanufacturing jobs between now and 2020. That would make up for between one-third andthree-quarters of what it has lost in the past decade.
        　　波士顿咨询集团(Boston Consulting Group)指出，从现在到2020年，美国在制造业领域可以创造200万至500万个新就业岗位。这相当于美国制造业在过去十年所损失掉的就业岗位的三分之一至四分之三。
        　　On top of that, the US housing market has finally bottomed out and is likely once again to becomea net plus to US growth. Finally, as Roger Altman recently argued in the FT, Washington couldsurprise us all by skirting the cliff and striking a fiscal deal that would rekindle America’s animal spirits.
        　　另外，美国住房市场终于已经见底，并很可能再度对美国经济增长起到净推动作用。最后，正如罗杰 奥尔特曼(Roger Altman)近期在英国《金融时报》撰文所称的，华盛顿方面也许能给我们大家一个惊喜，绕过“财政悬崖”，达成一项能重振美国“动物精神”的财政协议。
        　　Much of this is indisputable; the US is well on the way to a new era of energy abundance. Estimates of its impact range from mildly positive to something far bigger. Much of it is alsoprobable: it would take a huge shock to push the US housing market back into free fall.
        　　以上这些理由大部分是无可争议的；美国正稳步走向一个能源充足的新时代。对于这件事产生的潜在影响，有人认为是温和利好，也有人认为是重大利好。以上预测的许多情形也有较大可能出现：只有规模巨大的外部冲击才可能使美国住房市场重新回到自由落体状态。
        　　Some of it is less so: it would be a surprise if Congress struck an intelligent fiscal bargain in thecoming months. Should the Republican “fever break” – as some Democrats describe theanticipated Republican change of heart – it would certainly qualify as a positive shock to theeconomy. Both Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s, the two biggest credit rating agencies, citepolitical risk as America’s chief vulnerability.
        　　不过以上观点中有一部分我不敢苟同：如果未来几个月美国国会达成一项明智的财政妥协方案，那将出乎人们的意料。如果共和党人届时能够“退烧”（一些民主党人用这个词来形容预期中的、共和党人立场的转变），那当然算得上是对美国经济的一次正面激励。两大信用评级机构穆迪(Moody's)和标准普尔(Standard and Poor's)都认为，政治风险是美国现在的主要“软肋”。
        　　Yet it is hard to get excited about a revival based on so many ifs and buts. Even if the rosiestforecasts prove correct, they are based on sobering assumptions. First, the boom would be basedon the continued decline in US unit labour costs. By 2016, according to Boston Consulting Group, the gap with China would have narrowed to just seven cents an hour. These would be neither thehigh-tech jobs of the future nor the golden middle class jobs of the past.
        　　但是，一个基于如此之多“如果”和“但是”的复兴很难让人感到振奋。即使最乐观的预测被证明是正确的，它们也是建立在一系列严峻的条件之上。首先，这场复兴要求美国单位劳动成本要持续下降。波士顿咨询集团指出，到2016年，美国与中国的单位劳动成本之差将收窄至7美分每小时。不过，与之对应的工作岗位既不会是新兴的高科技工作岗位，也不会是传统的中产阶级金领岗位。