|
|
The deal reached in Washington on New Year’s day preventedthe US economy from falling off the so-called fiscal cliff. However, given the dysfunctional nature of the Americanpolitical system, it won’t be long before there is another crisis.
华盛顿在元旦当天达成的协议阻止了美国经济跌落所谓的财政悬崖。然而，鉴于美国政治体系从本质上来说已经失灵，另一场危机将为期不远。
Two months, in fact. If no action is taken by March 1, $110bn of spending cuts will commence. Atabout the same time, the US will hit its statutory debt limit, known colloquially as the debt ceiling.
实际上，美国距离下一场危机只有两个月时间。如果到3月1日还没有采取任何举措，1100亿美元的支出削减措施将自动生效。大约同一时间，美国将触及法定债务限制，也就是通常所说的“债务上限”。
That is only the beginning. Later in 2013, and not before time, a bigger debate on medium-termfiscal consolidation will begin. This will lead to another dispute between Republicans, who want toshrink the size of the federal government, and Democrats, who want to maintain it but are unsurehow to pay for it.
这仅仅是开始。在2013年晚些时候，美国将展开一场更大规模的关于中期财政整固的辩论（早该如此）。这将导致共和党和民主党再次爆发冲突，前者希望缩减联邦政府的规模，而后者则希望保持联邦政府当前规模，但对政府支出的来源很迷茫。
So expect a big fight about entitlements, and a series of little fights over tax reform: should the USintroduce a value added tax? A flat tax? Higher (or lower) income taxes? A carbon tax? Should weclose corporate tax loopholes to raise more revenue? It’ll soon get messy.
因此可以预计，美国将围绕福利支出爆发一场大的冲突，围绕税收改革爆发一系列小冲突：美国应该推出增值税吗？应该推出单一税(flat tax)吗？应该提高（或降低）所得税吗？应该出台碳税吗？我们应该堵塞企业税收漏洞以提高财政收入吗？美国很快就会混乱起来
President Barack Obama and his allies will argue that the deal concluded on Tuesday raises only $600bn of revenues over 10 years rather than their initial target of $1.4tn – and therefore thereis further room for tax rises, at least for the wealthy. Republicans will argue that spending shouldnow be radically cut, since this week’s deal did not address that side of the national balance sheet. (Even the 2011 debt ceiling deal reduced prospective spending by $1tn).
美国总统巴拉克 奥巴马(Barack Obama)及其盟友将辩称，周二达成的协议只是让美国政府在未来10年可以获得6000亿美元的收入，而不是他们最初计划的1.4万亿美元，因此还有进一步增税（至少针对富人）的空间。共和党人将辩称，目前应该大幅削减支出，因为本周的协议没有谈及国家资产负债表的支出项目（就连2011年的债务上限协议也将预期支出削减了1万亿美元）。
In the meantime, the likely fiscal adjustment in 2013 will be about 1.4 per cent of gross domesticproduct. (Spread between the expiry of the payroll tax cut, the increase in the tax rates of therich, and some eventual cuts to spending.)
与此同时，2013年可能的财政调整规模将占到国内生产总值(GDP)的1.4%左右（工资税减免法案到期、提高富人税率和某些最终的支出削减等财政调整的净效果）。
This translates into a 1.2 per cent of GDP drag on the economy during the year. If the economywas happily growing above trend – at say 3.5 per cent – that would not be such a big deal, asgrowth would still be above 2 per cent. In the past few quarters growth already averaged about 2 per cent. So the US could quite easily come perilously close to stall speed this year – or worse, ifthe eurozone crisis worsens.
这意味着财政调整对2013年全年经济的拖累将占到GDP的1.2%。如果美国经济增长幸运地高于趋势水平（比如说达到3.5%），那就不会有大问题，因为最终经济增长仍将高于2%。但在过去的几个季度里，美国平均经济增速已经只有2%左右，因此美国经济今年非常容易失速，这是非常危险的——如果欧元区危机恶化的话，甚至会更糟糕。
The longer-term picture is bleaker still. The reality is that America is yet to wake up to the full extentof its fiscal nightmare. Even the typical Republican voter is not – being on average older andpoorer than a Democrat voter – in favour of gutting the welfare state. Tea Party extremists aremore noise than signal. That is why the plans of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans’ losing presidential ticket, postponed all the tough spending cuts on Social Security and Medicare bya decade.
更长期的场景更为惨淡。现实情况是，美国仍未意识到财政危机的全部影响。即便是典型的共和党选民（平均而言比民主党选民年纪更大、更穷）也不支持削弱福利国家。茶党极端主义者只是口头上嚷嚷，说明不了什么问题。正因为此，落选的共和党总统竞选搭档米特 罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)和保罗 瑞恩(Paul Ryan)没有提出在十年内大规模削减社会保障和医疗保险(Social Security andMedicare)支出的计划。
Neither Democrats nor Republicans recognise that maintaining a basic welfare state, which is rightand necessary in our age of globalisation, rapid technological change and demographic pressure, implies higher taxes for the middle class as well as for the rich. A deal that extends unsustainabletax cuts for 98 per cent of Americans is therefore a pyrrhic victory for Mr Obama.
民主党和共和党都未认识到，维持一个基本的福利国家——在我们这个全球化、技术发展日新月异和面临人口压力的时代，这是正确且必要之举——就意味着不但对富人增税，对中产阶级也要增税。因此，一份将针对98%美国人的不可持续的减税政策延长的协议，对奥巴马而言是一场代价极大的胜利。
For now, he is being helped by the quiescent financial markets. It will probably take years for theUS to confront the reality of its fiscal position and raise revenues to a level sufficient to fund areformed – but not gutted – welfare state. Large fiscal deficits will remain the norm for the next fewyears, at least so long as the bond market remains quiet, as I believe it will.
就目前而言，金融市场波澜不惊对奥巴马有所帮助。美国将需要数年时间才会正视其财政状况的现实，并将收入提高到足以为一个经过改革（但没有削弱）的福利国家提供资金的水平。未来几年美国将依然面临巨额财政赤字，最起码只要债券市场保持平静（而这正是我预期的），情况就会如此。 |
|
发表于 2016-7-11 09:10:26