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苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话，那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”：你离他太近的话，就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”，而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过，Elmer-DeWitt认为，在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道，他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
苹果(Apple)在本周一宣布，新一代iPhone开售头三天的销量已经超过了1,000万台。这超出了一些分析家的预计，也打破了去年900万台的纪录。
而大屏幕的iPhone 6与加大款(并且利润更高)的iPhone 6 Plus的销量有多大差距呢?
苹果并未透露这个数字。他们不想让竞争者知道这一信息。
本周末，我们确实从第三方得到了一些估值，不过它们来自不同的消息源，而且有趣的是，它们相互矛盾。
上面的表格来自手机分析公司Mixpanel，不过其竞争者Chitika和Fiksu得出的数据与此相差不大。它们都显示，最初三天内iPhone
6的活跃度(包括应用内购买等)是iPhone 6 Plus的七倍以上。
Apple announced Monday that it sold more than 10 million new iPhones over
the first three days of sales — defying some analysts’ predictions and beating
last year’s record 9 million.
How were those sales split between the big iPhone 6 and the bigger (and
more profitable) iPhone 6 Plus?
The company did not say. That’s information they’ll want to keep from their
competitors.
We did get some third-party estimate target=_blank
class=infotextkey>estimates over the weekend, but they came from different
types of sources, and — curiously — they contradict each other.
The chart above happens be from the mobile analytics firm Mixpanel, but the
ones put out by its competitors, Chitika and Fiksu, are not much different. They
all show iPhone 6 activity (in-app purchases, etc.) over the first three days
outpacing the iPhone 6 Plus by more than seven to one.
然而派杰投行(Piper
Jaffray)周五对在纽约和明尼阿波利斯购买iPhone的386名顾客进行了调查，得出了截然不同的结果：超过半数(57%)顾客表示他们排队是为了够买iPhone
6 Plus。只有43%的顾客是为了够买iPhone 6。
这一差异性十分重要。因为两款iPhone销量所占的比例，将决定该设备的平均销售价格，这在苹果的收入中占据了一半以上的份额。
导致这一现象的原因是什么?是中国。
中国市场对尺寸类似Galaxy
Note的手机的需求很大，而新款iPhone并未在那里上市。在美国苹果零售店开售首日的队伍中，瞄准中国市场的手机转售商占据了绝大部分，尤其是在纽约这类城市。根据2012年的人口普查数据，纽约的美籍华人数量为522,619人。
一位游客估计，周六在纽约Soho区的苹果商店的顾客中，有90%都是亚洲人。
情况就是这样：即便这部分手机已经设法流入了中国并已被激活，Fiksu和Mixpanel可能也没有把它们算进去。
Fiksu在说明中写道：“我们的示意图主要体现了美国和欧洲的情况，因为Fiksu的多数客户都注重在这些地区发展用户。我们在亚太区的数据可能不具备代表性。”
Yet a Piper Jaffray survey of 386 customers lined up Friday to buy iPhones
in New York City and Minneapolis returned a very different result: More than
half (57%) said they were in the queue to buy the iPhone 6 Plus. Only 43% were
there for the iPhone 6.
The discrepancy is significant because the mix of phones will determine the
average selling price of the device that accounts for more than half of Apple’s
revenues.
What explains it? China.
Resellers buying for the Chinese market — where demand for Galaxy Note-size
phones is strong and the new iPhones not yet available — dominated first-day
Apple Store lines in the U.S., especially in cities like New York, where the
Chinese American population target=_blank class=infotextkey>population,
according the 2012 census, is 522,619.
On Saturday, one visitor estimate target=_blank
class=infotextkey>estimated, 90% of the buyers at the Apple’s Soho store were
Asians.
Here’s the thing: Even if those iPhones had already found their way to
China and been activated, Fiksu and Mixpanel might not have counted them.
“Our map is zoomed in to show the US and Europe because the majority of
Fiksu’s clients focus on user acquisition in those areas,” reads Fiksu’s fine
print. “Our data on Asia-Pacific may not be representative.”
更新：有报道称，中国的海关人员正在收缴灰色市场的iPhone。在那之后，周日在Soho区的亚裔美国人比例有了明显下降。与此同时，德国柏林的一名读者写道，如今排长队的主要是俄罗斯人和波兰人，他们将在各自的本土市场转售这些手机。
UPDATE: The ratio of Asian Americans in Soho dropped visibly Sunday after
Chinese customs officials were reported to be confiscating grey market iPhones.
Meanwhile a reader in Berlin writes that the lines there were dominated by
Russians and Poles buying for resale in their respective home markets.
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发表于 2016-7-10 18:11:05