盘点2011-《时代周刊》年度十大失败预言

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　　1.正如我们所知道的，这就是世界末日
        　　作者：克莱尔·苏代，2011年10月21日（星期五）
        　　Harold Camping's prediction that the world will end Friday, Oct. 21, 2011, is not his first such prediction. In 1992, the evangelist published a book called 1994?, which proclaimed that sometime in mid-September 1994, Christ would return and the world would end. Camping based his calculations on numbers and dates found in the Bible and, at the time, said he was "99.9% certain" that his math was correct. But the world did not end in 1994. Nor did it end on March 31, 1995 — another date Camping provided when September 1994 passed without incident. Or earlier this year on May 21, when Camping spurred a nationwide marketing campaign to warn people that the world was ending. "I'm like the boy who cried wolf again and again, and the wolf didn't come," Camping told the San Francisco Chronicle in 1995. "This doesn't bother me in the slightest."
       

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        　　哈罗德预言2011年10月21日（星期五）世界将灭亡。不过，这并非他第一次预言世界末日。早在1992年，这位基督教传教士出版了一本名为《1994？》的书，他在书中宣称在1994年9月中旬的某个时间，耶稣基督将降临，世界随之毁灭。哈罗德通过《圣经》中的数字和日期进行计算得出了这一结论。当时他说“结果99.9%是正确的”。这个世界既没有在1994年也没有在1995年3月31日（哈罗德自己预言的第二个世界末日）毁灭，更没有在今年早些时候的5月21日结束。他在全国范围内大肆宣传，警告人们世界末日的降临。哈罗德在1995年接受美国《旧金山记事》采访时形容：“我就像一个狂喊狼来了的孩子，狼终究是没有出现，但这丝毫没有让我感到恼火。”
        　　The Earth Is Flat
        　　By Elizabeth Dias Friday, Oct. 21, 2011
         
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        　　2.地球是平的
        　　作者：伊丽莎白·迪亚斯日，2011年10月21日（星期五）
        　　As far as failed predictions go, this one may be the original. Everyone knows the world is round, right? Not so. Homer thought it was flat. Ancient Buddhist cosmology agreed that earth was like a horizontal disk. Hebrew Scriptures suggested it might resemble a dome. Some in ancient China claimed it to be a square. And when Columbus sailed the ocean blue in 1492, many Europeans thought he might reach its edge. Some scholars suggest that a round-earth theory had more early support than one might think. Echoes of a round-earth cosmology can be heard in Plato, and 6th century B.C. Greek philosopher Pythagoras (yep, same a2 + b2 = c2 guy) is said to have agreed. Around the time of Christ, an Asian belief held that the earth was like the yolk in an egg, and Muslim scholars supported a round earth by the 9th century. The Western world joined the round-earth campaign a little late, when Magellan's 1519 global voyage seemed to confirm the round hypothesis. Yet, as is the case with many strange predictions, a handful of believers like the Flat Earth Society still hold fast to their convictions. The rest of us would say however, they are, um, flat-out wrong.
       

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        　　就所有失败的预言而言，这一条或许算得上是原创。每个人都知道地球是圆的，这对吗？事实并非如此。荷马（Homer）认为它是平的。古代佛教认为地球像一个平平的盘子，犹太经文也称它像一个圆形屋顶。古代中国人则宣称地球是方的。1492年，当哥伦布出海航行时，很多欧洲人认为他们将到达地球的边缘。一些研究学者指出，认为地球是圆形的假说或许比我们想象的早很多。柏拉图有过地球是球形的看法。据说，公元前6世纪的希腊哲学家毕达哥拉斯（即，a2 + b2 = c2的发现者）同意这样的观点。公元前后，亚洲人认为地球就像鸡蛋中的蛋黄，9世纪时穆斯林学者在支持了球形地球的理论。西方世界对球形地球的认识则晚一些。1519年，麦哲伦带领的船队在环球航海中似乎确认了球形的假说。但是这里，我们主要讨论的是一些奇怪的预言，目前还有许多像“平面地球协会”这样的坚信者仍然hold他们的观点。我们对此看法也无可奈何，只能说，嗯，这次你们是绝对的错了。
        　　Prosperity Will Never End
        　　By Allison Berry Friday, Oct. 21, 2011
            
            

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        　　3.繁荣永不消失
        　　作者：艾里逊·贝里，2011年10月21日（星期五）
        　　Careers can rise and fall on just one fateful statement, as mathematical economist Irving Fisher learned in 1929. "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau," he confidently predicted. Three days later, the stock market plunged into a historic collapse, which led to mass unemployment, the Great Depression and a decade of gloom. Fisher believed that the market was inherently rational and efficient; in the months following the crash, he continued to assure investors and insisted that a recovery was just around the corner. Though the economy finally improved after World War II, Fisher's short-lived bubble was, unfortunately, far from the last the U.S. would experience.
       

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        　　事业上的沉浮早已天定，这是数理经济学家埃文费歇尔（Irving Fisher）在1929年提出的一个理论。他曾经自信地预测：“股市将永远在高位平稳运行。”可是，3天过后，股市惨跌，接连大规模失业、经济大萧条和长达十年的经济低迷。费歇尔确信市场具有内在的理性和高效。在经济崩溃的几个星期之后，他继续向投资者保证市场恢复很快就会出现。尽管经济在二战后的确开始复苏，但其短视泡沫是美国人再也不愿经历的事情。
        　　Technology? What's That?
        　　By Erin Skarda Friday, Oct. 21, 2011
            
            

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        　　4.科技？是个什么东西？
        　　作者：Erin Skarda，2011年10月21日（星期五）
        　　With an influx of new tablets, smart phones, computers and other devices constantly hitting the market, it's almost impossible to argue that the future of technology is anything but bright. But it didn't always seem that way. In the past, as the world struggled to understand the meteoric rise in technological innovation, even those who worked in the industry were skeptical of its staying power. In 1977, Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp., stated, "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." Yet in 2009, it was reported that approximately 80% of households in the U.S. had at least one computer. Darryl Zanuck, a movie producer at 20th Century Fox, said in 1946 that television wouldn't last because "people will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." Now the demand for TV is so high that there are literally thousands of channels available for viewers' daily consumption. As for the Internet, that was also doomed to fail, according to astronomer Clifford Stoll. In a 1995 Newsweek column, Stoll said that "no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works." But, of course, the Internet is unquestionably one of the greatest inventions in modern history. There have even been more recent doubts about the iPhone. In 2007, Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft, said, "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance." Well, we all know how that turned out. This just goes to show that what's not considered possible today may be the wave of the future. Time travel, anyone?
       

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        　　随着新型的平板电脑、智能手机、电脑和其它电子设备不断涌入市场，勿容置疑，未来技术会更有前途。但并非所有人这样认为。过去，人们难以理解昙花一现的科技革新，即使那些科技产业的从业者也表示怀疑。1977年，“不是所有人都需要一台电脑。”数字设备公司的创始人肯奥尔森（Ken Olsen）如是说。但据报道，2009年大约80%的美国家庭至少有一台电脑。1946年，二十世纪福克斯公司的制片人达里尔·扎努克（Darryl Zanuck）说，电视机的寿命不会很长，因为“人们早晚会对每天晚上都盯着一个木头盒子感到厌烦。” 如今，对电视机的需求仍然很高，人们可以通过多种途经购买。对于互联网，它注定失败，这是天文学家克利福斯托（Clifford Stoll）曾经的说法。他在1995年《新闻周刊》的专栏文章中说：“线数据库永远无法取代你手中的报纸；CD永远无法取代一名优秀教师；计算机网络永远无法改变政府的工作方式。” 然而，摆在我们面前的事实是，互联网毫无疑问是当代历史中最伟大的发明之一。近来，还有一些对iPhone持怀疑态度的言论。2007年，微软首席执行官史蒂夫鲍尔默（Steve Ballmer）说：“iPhone绝对没有机会分享更大的市场份额，没有机会。”我们都知道后来的结果。这只是说明，今天我们认为不可能发生的事情，可能就是明天的潮流。有人对穿越感兴趣吗？
        　　Four-Piece Groups with Guitars Are FinishedBy Josh Sanburn Friday, Oct. 21, 2011
            
            

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        　　5.四人吉他组合时代已经结束了
        　　作者： Josh Sanburn，2011年10月21日（星期五）
        　　"The Beatles have no future in show business," a Decca Records executive told the band's manager, Brian Epstein, in 1962. "We don't like your boys' sound. Groups are out; four-piece groups with guitars, particularly, are finished." It's almost inconceivable how wrong-headed this statement was, considering Britain and the U.S. were about to usher in the era of the modern rock-'n'-roll band (many of them four-piece guitar groups) via the greatest foursome of them all. But in 1962, the Beatles were still just another band playing clubs in Europe and trying to make it big. John Lennon and Paul McCartney hadn't even started writing many songs yet (only three songs played at the Decca audition were originals). With the Fab Four reportedly not too fab in their audition, Decca went with another band trying out at the same time, Brian Poole and the Tremeloes. Yeah, we've never listened to them either.
       

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        　　“甲壳虫乐队在演艺事业上不会有将来”，1962年， 台卡唱片公司一位高层对乐队经理布来恩·爱波斯坦（Brian Epstein）说，“我们不喜欢这些孩子的歌声，乐队组合已经过时了，四人吉他组合更是没有希望。” 考虑到当时的英国和美国即将进入现代摇滚乐队的新纪元（其中很多都是四人吉他组合），不难想象这个看法是多么的执迷不悟。直到1962年，甲壳虫乐队仍然只是在欧洲酒吧里，边唱歌边梦想发达的一个组合。约翰列侬和保罗甚至还没有写出自己的歌曲（只有在台卡录音的三首歌曲是原创）。由于披头四的歌曲并不是那么惊人，台卡转而接受了另外两个组合Brian Poole和Tremeloes。我们似乎从未听过这两个乐队的作品。
        　　Y2KBy Frances Romero Friday, Oct. 21, 2011
            
            

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        　　6.千年虫
        　　作者：弗朗西丝·罗梅罗，2011年10月21日（星期五）
        　　It was the day that was supposed to finally prove what Luddites and other tech haters had been saying for so long: computers — not sin or religious prophecy come true — will bring us down. For months before the stroke of midnight on Jan. 1, 2000, analysts speculated that entire computer networks would crash, causing widespread dysfunction for a global population that had become irreversibly dependent on computers to hold, disseminate and analyze its most vital pieces of information. The problem was that many computers had been programmed to record dates using only the last two digits of every year, meaning that the year 2000 would register as the year 1900, totally screwing with the collective computerized mind. But it just wasn't so. Aside from a few scattered power failures in various countries, problems in data-transmission systems at some of Japan's nuclear plants (which did not affect their safety) and a temporary interruption in receipt of data from the U.S.'s network of intelligence satellites, the new year arrived with nothing more than the expected hangover.
       

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        　　卢德分子和其它技术的仇视者长期宣扬：不是罪恶，也不是宗教预言，而是计算机将毁灭我们，如今是该证明他们这种说法的时候了。2000年1月1日敲响新年午夜钟声的几个月之前，分析人士预测整个计算机网络即将崩溃，全球人口赖以储存、分享和分析信息的计算机系统将面临大规模故障，这对我们是致命的危害。问题始作俑者在于，很多计算机的程序仅记录年份的最后两位数字，意味着2000年就会被认为是1900年，造成计算机大规模数据混乱。但是，这些现象并没有发生。除了一些国家零星的断电、日本核电厂数据传输出现问题（没有威胁到安全）和美国间谍卫星网络数据接收临时中断的现象，这个新年和往常一样，人人依然狂欢至醉。
        　　The Titanic Is UnsinkableBy Terri Pous Friday, Oct. 21, 2011
            
            

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        　　7.泰坦尼克永不沉没
        　　作者：Terri Pous，2011年10月21日（星期五）
        　　If the Titanic had made a safe voyage as was intended, it would have been just another grandiose vessel with lofty expectations. Prior to the voyage, the ship's captain, Edward J. Smith, said, "I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that." Phillip Franklin, vice president of the White Star Line, which had produced the ship, added, "There is no danger that Titanic will sink." Unfortunately, it did not live up to those predictions. The ship sailed, hit an iceberg, and the rest is history. But, hey, at least we got a good movie out of it.
       

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        　　如果泰坦尼克号如期完成首航，它将是被寄予厚望的宏伟船只。首航之前，船长爱德华史密斯（Edward J. Smith）说，“我很难想象这艘船会发生任何重大事故，现代化的造船业已经完全能够克服这些问题。” 该船制造商白星公司的副总裁菲利普富兰克林（Phillip Franklin）补充道：“泰坦尼克号没有沉没的危险。”不幸的是，没能见到这些预言成真。船因为撞上了冰山，沉没了，剩下的唯有历史。但是，我们有机会欣赏到一部优秀影片了。
        　　Online Shopping Will FlopBy Erin Skarda Friday, Oct. 21, 2011
            
            

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        　　8.网络购物命不长久
        　　作者：Erin Skarda，2011年10月21日（星期五）
        　　Today it's difficult to imagine a world without online shopping, where people placed remote orders through telephones and went to actual stores to find what they were looking for. But in 1966, before the Internet even existed, TIME published an essay called "The Futurists," which imagined what the world would be like in the year 2000. Besides guessing the social, physical and technological changes in the world, TIME pontificated that remote shopping, while possible, would never become popular because "women like to get out of the house, like to handle the merchandise, like to be able to change their minds." That may be true, but it doesn't stop women — and men — from giving e-commerce a boost every year. In fact, online shopping seems to be trending upward, with approximately $38 billion in U.S. retail sales reported in the first quarter of 2011 alone — up 12% from the previous year. We admit, we were wrong.
       

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        　　今天，我们很难设想没有网络购物的世界将是怎样的。通过网络购物，人们寻找他们中意的商品，然后通过电话远程下单。但在1966年，互联网出现之前，《时代周刊》发表了一篇题为《未来主义》的文章，该文设想了2000年的世界是什么样子。除对社会、自然和技术变化想象之外，《时代周刊》还用宣判的口吻说，远程购物，即使能实现，也是不会流行的，因为“女人喜欢走出家门，喜欢把玩商品，喜欢改主意。” 这或许正确，但依然无法阻止女人——还有男人——逐年增长的电子商务需求。实际上，网络购物目前呈直线上升趋势，仅在2011年第一季度，美国电子商务零售额就达到380亿美元，比去年同期增长了12％。必须承认，我们错了。
        　　Heart and Brain Surgery — Never Gonna HappenBy Terri Pous Friday, Oct. 21, 2011
            
            

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        　　9.心脏和大脑手术——绝不会发生
        　　作者：Terri Pous，2011年10月21日（星期五）
        　　The average human life span is significantly longer now than it was in the 19th century, and we have modern practices like heart and brain surgery partially to thank for that. But there used to be doubt that those surgeries could ever happen. Medical attitudes of that time reveal that some were not interested in making any surgical advances. "The abdomen, the chest and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon," announced Sir John Eric Erichsen, a British doctor appointed Surgeon Extraordinary to Queen Victoria, in 1873. In 1884, though, the first modern brain surgery was performed when British surgeon Rickman Godlee successfully removed a brain tumor. Eleven years after that, Norwegian surgeon Axel Cappelen performed the first heart surgery at Rikshospitalet in Oslo. Erichsen was wrong, but he wasn't in doubt.
        　　人类的平均寿命比19世纪时显著延长，这更多地得益于现代心脏和脑外科手术的作用。但是，以前曾存在一些怀疑，认为这样的手术永远不会出现。当时医学界对外科手术不感兴趣。1873年，英国医生约翰埃里克埃里克森（John Eric Erichsen）勋爵对维多利亚女王说：“腹部、胸部和脑部将永久避免明智、人道的侵入性手术。” 不过，1884年出现了第一例现代脑外科手术。英国医生里克曼（Rickman Godlee）成功地取出了患者的脑部肿瘤。11年后，挪威医生阿克塞尔（Axel Cappelen）在奥斯陆的国立医院实施了第一例心脏外科手术。埃里克森错了，但他并没有怀疑。
        　　The End of History Is NighBy Ishaan Tharoor Friday, Oct. 21, 2011
            
            

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        　　10.历史即将结束
        　　作者：Ishaan Tharoor，2011年10月21日（星期五）
        　　Harvard academic Francis Fukuyama's 1989 article in National Interest spawned his most famous work, published three years later. As Soviet communism collapsed and movements for freedom and democracy in Eastern Europe captured the world's imagination, Fukuyama suggested that the time was not far off when every nation-state would become a liberal democracy. Invoking the 19th century philosopher Hegel, who thought of history as a kind of evolutionary process, Fukuyama imagined a natural "teleological" end whereby the pinnacle of human development would be in societies based on democracy and capitalism. In an era of optimism, The End of History and the Last Man won Fukuyama near instant celebrity and influenced a whole swath of prominent commentators and advocates of globalization, like "earth is flat" proponent Thomas Friedman. But history, as Fukuyama surely accepts, has not ended. The world looks no closer to being one large European Union — and with the success of decidedly undemocratic China and the rise of reactionary, extremist right-wing movements throughout the West, some argue that it's Fukuyama's liberal democracy whose future lies in shadow.
       

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        　　1989年，哈佛学者弗朗西斯（Francis Fukuyama）在其刊登在《国家利益》上的一篇文章中报道了他最著名的工作成果。随着苏联共产主义解体和东欧自由民主运动的兴起，弗朗西斯认为所有单一民族国家很快都会实行自由民主体制。借19世纪哲学家黑格尔（Hegel）（认为历史是一个演化过程）的思想，弗朗西斯假想了一种自然的“目的论”归宿，借此人类发展的顶峰就是基于民主和资本主义的社会。在那相对乐观的年代中，弗朗西斯的《历史的终结》和《最后一人》为自己赢得了耀眼的地位。受其影响，出现了一系列主张全球化的评论者和践行者，如“平坦地球”支持者托马斯弗里德曼（Thomas Friedman）。但是弗朗西斯必须接受的是，历史并未结束。世界距离一个欧洲大联盟的模样看起来还很遥远，并且非民主国家中国的成功、保守份子的抬头、极端右翼活动遍布西方。因此，人们认为弗朗西斯的自由民主前景暗淡无光。
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