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Section B
Directions: In this section, you are going to read a passage with ten
statements attached to it. Each statement contains information given in one of
the paragraphs. Identify the paragraph from which the information is
derived.
You may choose a paragraph more than once. Each paragraph is marked with a
letter. Answer the questions by marking the corresponding letter on Answer Sheet
2.
World Must Adapt to Unknown Climate Future
A.There is still great uncertainty about the impacts of climate
change，according to the latest report from the Intefgovernmental Panel on
Climate Change，released today.So if we are to survive and prosper, rather than
trying to fend off specific threats like cyclones，we must build flexible and
resilient(有弹性的)societies.
B.Today’s report is the second of three instalments(分期连载)of the IPCC’s
fifth assessment of climate change.The first instalment，released last
year,covered the physical science of climate change.It stated with increased
certainty that climate change is happenin9，and that it is the result of
humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions.The new report focuses on the impacts of
climate change and how to adapt to them.The third instalment，on how to cut
greenhouse gas emissions，comes out in April.
C.The latest report backs off from some of the predictions made in the
previous IPCC report，in 2007.During the final editing process.the authors also
retreated from many of the more confident projections from the final
draft，leaked last year.The IPCC now says it often cannot predict which specific
impacts of climate change—such as droughts，storms or floods——will hit particular
places.
D.Instead，the IPCC focuses on how people call adapt in the face of
uncertainty,arguing that we must become resilient against diverse changes in the
climate.“The natural human tendency is to want things to be clear and
simple.”says the report’s co-chair Chris Field of the Carnegie Institution for
Science in Stanford，Califomia.“And one of the messages that doesn’t just come
from the IPCC，it comes from history,is that the future doesn’t ever turn out the
way you think it will be.”That means，Field adds，that‘'being prepared for a wide
range of possible futures is iust always smart”.
E.Here New Scientist breaks down what is new in the report，and what it
means for humanity’s efforts to cope with a changing climate.A companion
article，“How climate change will affect where you live”，highlights some of the
key impacts that different regions are facing.What has changed in the new IPCC
report?
F.In essence，the predictions are intentionally vaguer.Much of the firlner
language from the 2007 report about exactly what kind of weather to expect，and
how changes witl affect people，has been replaced with more cautious
statements.The scale and timing of many regional impacts，and even the form of
some，now appear uncertain.
G.For example，the 2007 report predicted that the intensity of cyclones over
Asia would increase by 10to 20 per cent.The new report makes no such
claim.Similarly,the last report estimated that climate change would force up to
a quarter of a billion Africans into water shortage by the end of this
decade.The new report avoids using such firm numbers.
H.The report has even watered down many of the more confident predictions
that appeared in the lcaked drafts.References to“hundreds of millions”of people
being affected by rising sea levels have been removed from the summary,as have
statements about the impact of warmer temperatures on crops.“I think it's gone
back a bit，”says Jean Palutikof of Griffith University in
Brisbane，Queensland，Australia，who worked on the 2007 report.“That may be a good
thing.In the fourth [climate assessment]we tried to do things that weren’t
really possible and the fifth has sort of rebalanced the whole thing.”
So do we know less than we did before?
I.Not really,says Andy Pitman of the University of New South Wales in
Sydney,Australia.It is just more rigorous language.“Pointing to the sign of the
change，rather than the precise magnitude of the change，is scientifically more
defensible，”he says.
J.We also know more about what we don’t know,says David Karoly at the
University of Melbourne.“There is now a better understanding of uncertainties in
regional climate proj ections at decadal timescales(时标).”
Are we less confident about all the impacts of climate change?
K.Not quite.There are still plenty of confident predictions of impacts in
the reponv—at least in the draft chapters that were lcaked last year,and which
are expected to be roughly the same when they are released later this week.These
include more rain in parts ofAfrica，more heatwaves in southem Europe，and more
frequent droughts in Australia(see“How climate change will affect where you
live”).It also remains clear that the seas are rising.How do we prepare in cases
in which there is low confidence about the effects of climate change?
L.That’s exactly what this report deals with.In many cases，the uncertainty
is a matter of magnitude，so the choices are not hard.“It doesn’t really matter
if the car hits the wall at 70 or 80 kilometres an hour,”says Karoly.“You should
still wear your seat belt.”So when it comes to sea.1evel rise or heatwaves，the
uncertainty does not change what we need to do：build sea walls，use efficient
cooling and so forth.
M.But in some cases——such as African rainfall，which could go up or
down——the models are not giving us great advice.so all we know is that things
will change.“We are not certain about the precise nature of regional change，but
we are absolutely certain there are going to be profound changes in many
regions，”says Pitman.Even then，there are things we can do that will always
help.A big one is getting people out of poverty.The report says poverty makes
other impacts worse and many suggested adaptations are about alleviating it.The
IPCC suggests giving disadvantaged groups more of a voice，helping them move when
they need to and strengthening social safety nets.
N.What’s more，all countries should diversify their economies，rather than
relying on a few main sources of income that could flood or blow ovel Countries
should also find ways to become less vulnerable to the current climate
variability.That means improving the way they govem resources like water,the
report says.
O.In short，we must become more resilient.That would be wise even if the
climate was stable.Our current infrastructure often cannot deal with the current
climate，says Karoly,pointing to events like the recent UK floods.“We don’t have
a resilient system now,even in extremely well developed countries.”
46.Focusing on the clue of climate change instead of the severity of
climate effects is scientifically more reasonable.
47.IPCC’s new report has removed some of the predictions that appeared in
the former one released in2007.
48.One of the lessons both IPCC and history has taught us is that future
never appears as you expect it to be.
49.The IPCC’s latest report has weakened many firmer projections written in
the leaked drafts.
50.The first of IPCC’s three instalments has focused on the current climate
conditions and the main reason for those conditions.
51.The most important thing for us to do is to get people rich.
52.Sometimes the uncertainty is just about the extent of climate
effects，thus the choices.of what we should doisquite easy.
53.Countries must make their economies varied and improve the way of
controlling the recourses in order to beRer deal with climate change.
54.The new IPCC report has replaced some more confident statements from the
2007 report with more careful expressions.
55.There are still many of firm statements about the climate effects in the
new report，which are generally the same as they were in the draft chapters. |
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发表于 2018-12-8 10:33:15