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Pakistan: Will Need Financing Beyond IMF Deal
2008年11月18日
Pakistan's new agreement with the International Monetary Fund over a $7.6 billion loan may lead to more help from other donors and is expected, at least for now, to stave off economic collapse in the South Asian nation.
But the IMF's package falls well short of the $10 billion to $15 billion that Pakistani officials have said they need over the next two years to fix the economy. Some of that shortfall will be made up by loans from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Islamabad hopes the rest will come from the so-called Friends of Democratic Pakistan, a group of allies such as the U.S., China, European powers and Saudi Arabia that is holding a meeting Monday.
Pakistani and IMF officials said Saturday that the international lending agency had reached a deal for a financial stabilization package and that Islamabad would make a formal request this week.
The IMF will deliver $4 billion -- the amount Pakistan has said it needs immediately to avoid defaulting -- this year, with the rest to be disbursed in 2009, Shaukat Tarin, an economic adviser to Pakistan's prime minister, told reporters in Karachi. The annual interest rate on the IMF program will run between 3.51% and 4.51%, and Pakistan will start repaying the money in 2011, Mr. Tarin said.
'The outlook for next six months will get better from the present crisis-like situation,' said Samiullah Tariq, head of research at Investcapital, a brokerage based in Karachi, Pakistan's financial center.
The IMF loan is likely to boost confidence among donors and investors, but it is nonetheless a major reversal for the new government of President Asif Ali Zardari. Officials had repeatedly insisted the IMF was a last resort and were banking on allies in the West and Asia for a rescue, figuring no one wanted to see an all-out economic collapse in a country at the front line of the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda, said a finance ministry official.
In recent days, however, it became 'clear that without the IMF, no one was going to give us the sums we need,' the official said. Most of Pakistan's allies had either publicly or privately pressed Pakistan to seek IMF assistance, and only China had offered any money prior to Saturday's announcement. Pakistani officials have said that Beijing agreed to give a $500 million loan.
The Friends of Democratic Pakistan are holding a meeting of midlevel technical officials in Abu Dhabi on Monday, and 'maybe after the meeting there should be some news,' said Ashfaque Hassan Khan, a finance ministry official, in a telephone interview from Islamabad.
Following Saturday's announcement, the IMF urged major donors to offer Pakistan additional financing, and a Western diplomat in Islamabad on Sunday praised Pakistan's turn to the IMF, saying: 'It should lead to more help.' But the diplomat wouldn't say if any firm commitments had been made.
Even if Pakistan gets all the money it needs, it faces a tough economic road. Inflation is running at around 25%, its stock market is down about 35% since the start of the year, the rupee has plunged against the dollar and Pakistan currently has only enough hard cash on hand to cover about two months of imports.
Matthew Rosenberg
巴基斯坦尚需更多资金援助
巴
基斯坦与国际货币基金组织新近敲定了价值76亿美元的援助计划，这或许能为巴基斯坦获得更多帮助打开大门。至少眼下看来，该国能因此暂离经济崩溃边缘。
Agence France-Presse 巴基斯坦总统扎尔达里（图左）与沙特国王阿卜杜拉
上周在联合国纽约总部举行了会晤
然而，较巴基斯坦官员为未来两年修复经济而提出的100亿至150亿美元资金需求而言，IMF援助款还有相当大的缺口。这一部分缺口有的能通过世界银行和亚洲发展银行的贷款来填补。伊斯兰堡方面希望剩下的部分能靠友邦出手相助，美国、中国、几个欧洲国家以及沙特阿拉伯等巴国友邦定于周一举行会议。
巴基斯坦和IMF官员上周六表示，双方已就这笔旨在稳定该国财政状况的资金发放问题达成协议，巴基斯坦将于本周提出正式申请。
巴基斯坦总理经济顾问舒卡特?泰林在卡拉奇向记者表示，为了避免巴基斯坦拖欠外债，IMF将于今年提供40亿美元的紧急资金，剩余部分将于明年给付；这笔贷款的年利率介于3.51%至4.51%之间，巴基斯坦将于2011年开始偿债。
Investcapital的研究主管撒缪拉?塔里克说，未来六个月的经济前景将较眼下的危机局面有所改善。Investcapital是一家位于巴基斯坦金融中心卡拉奇的经纪机构。
扎尔达里
虽然来自IMF的贷款有望提振其他捐助人或投资者的信心，但该国新总统阿西夫?阿里?扎尔达里在这一决策问题上曾经经历了一个重大转变。此前该国政府一再表示，不到万不得已不会求助于IMF，而且一度指望西方和亚洲盟国能出手相救，因为他们相信没人愿意看到地处与塔利班及基地组织作战前沿的巴基斯坦陷入经济的全面崩溃。
然而这位官员说，近几日的势态愈发清晰地显示出，没有IMF的帮助，就没人打算给我们足够的资金。巴基斯坦的盟友大多或公开或私下地敦促该国去求助IMF，只有中国在上周六、即上述协议达成之前提供了援助。按巴基斯坦方面所称，中国同意提供5亿美元贷款。
巴基斯坦的友邦国家定于周一在阿布扎比召开会议，与会者都是中层技术官员；巴财政部官员阿什法克?侯赛因?汗接受电话采访时表示，会后应该会有一些消息发布。
在上周六发布该声明之后，IMF敦促主要捐助国为巴基斯坦提供更多资金，此外，一位驻伊斯兰堡的西方外交官对巴基斯坦转而救助IMF的做法表示了赞赏，他说巴基斯坦获应该能因此获得更多帮助。但这位外交官并没有透露是否已经敲定了具体援助协议。
就算巴基斯坦能够悉数获得所需资金，摆在它面前的经济道路仍是崎岖不平。该国通货膨胀率现在25%的高位徘徊，自年初以来其股指下挫了35%左右，巴基斯坦卢比兑美元汇价大幅下挫，该国手中的硬通货仅能勉强满足两个月的进口汇兑之需。
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发表于 2016-8-12 16:32:12