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New Thai Prime Minister Faces Immediate Hurdles
2008年12月16日
Ousted Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra's choke-hold on Thailand's parliament is beginning to loosen after his opponents elected rival Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva prime minister. But Mr. Thaksin's grip hasn't been broken entirely, political analysts say.
Mr. Abhisit faces significant political and economic hurdles in keeping his new ruling coalition in power. For one thing, his coalition's slim majority in parliament depends on retaining the support of defectors he lured from Mr. Thaksin's camp. At the same time, the 44-year-old, British-educated Mr. Abhisit will have to deal with the effects of a global economic slowdown on Thailand's economy, which some economists predict could slip into recession next year.
Meanwhile, grassroots support for Mr. Thaksin and his populist policies still runs deep in rural Thailand. Mr. Thaksin's followers still control the single largest party in parliament and could regain power in Thailand's next national election, which must be held by 2011.
The upshot: Mr. Abhisit's ascension to the premiership 'isn't a lasting solution' to Thailand's deep-seated political problems, contends Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.
The political conflicts that have ensnared Thailand, one of Southeast Asia's linchpin economies, date back to the premiership of Mr. Thaksin, a telecommunications tycoon-turned-politician. Thailand's longest-serving elected leader, Mr. Thaksin introduced populist policies to the country's poor, mostly rural underclass after coming to power in late 2001.
But Mr. Thaksin's growing influence and autocratic leadership style brought him into conflict with Thailand's traditional bureaucratic, business and military elites, whose long-dominant role in Thai politics was threatened by the popular leader. In September 2006, the army toppled Mr. Thaksin in a coup. He is currently in self-imposed exile to evade imprisonment on a corruption conviction earlier this year that he says was politically motivated.
After a period of military rule, democracy was restored in December 2007. But rural voters again elected a government made up of Mr. Thaksin's followers, angering his political adversaries.
Large protests erupted across Bangkok earlier this year, culminating with thousands of antigovernment demonstrators occupying Thailand's two main airports last month. The week-long airport siege cut off Bangkok's air links and wreaked havoc on Thailand's tourism industry and export-dependent economy.
Led by media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul, antigovernment protesters have called for a radical overhaul of Thailand's electoral system to place power in the hands of appointed legislators more sympathetic to the concerns of the country's conservative bureaucratic, business and military establishment.
Thailand's previous coalition government -- comprised of Mr. Thaksin's supporters and led by his brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat -- collapsed on Dec. 2, after Thailand's Constitutional Court banned Mr. Somchai and other key leaders from politics for five years for electoral fraud and disbanded their People Power Party.
Indeed, some Thai commentators described Mr. Abhisit's election to the premiership as an 'establishment coup.'
But Mr. Abhisit, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal last week, said that after the Constitutional Court ruling, some pro-Thaksin members of parliament were eager to find a solution to Thailand's seemingly intractable political stalemate and were willing to join a new Democrat-led coalition.
Economists say what Thailand needs now is a period of political stability to repair the damage inflicted by the airport closures and the preceding months of turmoil.
'The political risk in Thailand has been so elevated for so long that it's been off the grid for international investors for some time,' says Tim Condon, chief regional economist at ING Asia-Pacific Ltd. in Singapore. 'If there's less political noise for a while, then there's no reason for Thailand to underperform other countries in the region.'
Mr. Condon expects Thailand's economy to grow 2.7% next year, 'and that's low for Thailand,' he says. Thai officials had forecast growth of 4% but worry it could be much lower.
Still, political risk is likely to remain a watchword for Thailand in the coming months. Acting Finance Minister Suchart Thada-Thamrongvech last week forecast that Thailand's economy would contract 0.5% to 1% in the first quarter of 2009 compared with the same period this year.
James Hookway
泰国新总理面临政治经济障碍
泰国被逐前总理他信的反对者选举反对党民主党领袖阿披实为总理，标志着他信对泰国国会的扼制开始出现松动。不过政治分析人士表示，他信的控制尚未完全消除。
要保持新的执政同盟政权，阿披实面临巨大的政治和经济障碍。首先，执政同盟在国会中的些许优势靠的是获得了从前支持他信的议员的支持。同时，这位现年44岁、在英国受过教育的总理将不得不应对全球经济放缓对泰国经济的影响；一些经济学家预测泰国经济明年可能会步入衰退。
AFP/Getty Images 阿披实周一当选为泰国总理
与此同时，在泰国农村，普通民众对他信及其民粹主义政策的支持仍根深蒂固。他信的追随者仍控制着国会中最大的一个党派，并可能在下届选举（必须在2011年前举行）中重新掌权。
曼谷的朱拉隆功大学政治学教授Thitinan Pongsudhirak表示，结果是，阿披实当选总理并不是解决泰国政治痼疾的一个长久之计。
困扰着泰国的政治冲突可以追溯到他信任总理的时期。他信从政之前曾是位电信大亨。他是泰国在任时间最长的民选领导人，2001年底当选总理后将民粹主义政策引入了泰国贫困、大部分为农民的下层民众中。泰国是东南亚地区最重要的经济体之一。
不过，他信日益增强的影响力和专制的领导风格，让他陷入了与泰国传统官僚阶层、商界和军队精英的冲突，这位颇受欢迎的领导人对这些人在泰国政坛的长期统治地位造成了威胁。2006年9月，泰国军队在一次政变中推翻了他信政府。今年早些时候他信被判犯有腐败罪，目前他为躲避监禁而流亡国外。他说对他的指控是出于政治目的。
经过一段时间的军事统治后，2007年12月泰国恢复了民主选举。不过农村的选民再次选举他信追随者组建政府，这激怒了他信在政治上的反对者。
今年早些时候，曼谷各地爆发了大规模抗议活动，上个月更有数千名反政府示威人士占领了泰国的两大机场，将抗议活动推到了高潮。长达一周的机场围困切断了曼谷的空中运输，严重破坏了泰国的旅游业和出口型经济。
在传媒大亨林明达的带领下，反政府抗议人士呼吁对泰国的选举制度进行大改革，把权力交给那些更加同情泰国保守的官僚阶层、商界和军队立场的被任命的议员。
由他信支持者组建、他信妹夫颂猜领导的上届联合政府于12月2日解散。泰国宪法法院裁定人民力量党在去年选举中舞弊，判决颂猜和其他重要领导人禁止参政5年，并宣布解散人民力量党。
实际上，一些泰国评论人士将阿披实的当选总理说成是“集团政变”。
不过阿披实上周接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示，在泰国宪法法院作出判决后，一些亲他信的议员热切希望找到办法打破泰国看似难以解决的政治僵局，并且愿意加入民主党领导的新联合政府。
经济学家们表示，泰国现在需要的是一段政治稳定期，修复因机场围困事件和几个月来的动荡造成的破坏。
荷兰国际集团（新加坡）首席亚太区经济学家蒂姆?康登说，泰国的政治风险太高、持续时间太长，所以国际投资者有一段时间没有投资泰国；如果政治动荡缓解了，泰国就没有理由比不上这一地区的其他国家了。
康登预计泰国明年经济增长率为2.7%。他说，这对泰国来说是较低的水平。泰国官员曾预测明年经济增长率为4%，不过担心实际水平可能要远低于此。
尽管如此，对泰国来说，未来几个月中政治风险可能仍是需要密切关注的问题。代理财政部长苏查特上周预测，2009年第一季度泰国的经济将较今年同期下降0.5%-1%。
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发表于 2016-8-12 16:31:39