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Baidu May Be Set For Costly Changes
Changing your business model in a slowing environment can be smart. Being pressured to adopt a less lucrative structure in such an environment- as China's Baidu.com may be- is another story altogether.
Following criticism from Beijing, Baidu is facing pressure from Internet users to clearly differentiate sponsored links from unpaid search results, which, unlike Google, it doesn't do currently.
The company has begun testing a new model for advertising that will place paid advertisements on the right-hand side of its page. It's not yet clear if the company will abandon its practice of putting paid ads among organic search results - and Baidu didn't clarify its plans-saying only that testing of the system just started.
In all likelihood, though, Baidu won't be pleased with its results. Advertisers pay the company for each click from a user on a link to their Web page. Clearly marked paid advertisements are 20% to 30% less likely to be clicked, estimates Citi Investment Research analyst Jason Brueschke.
Still, pressure is on Baidu to more clearly distinguish paid advertisers from organic search results. The issue jumped to the forefront after a news report in November by China's government-controlled broadcaster, CCTV, exposed the company's practice of accepting paid listings from unlicensed medical companies.
Baidu's immediate response was to stop taking ads from these companies--which it said will cost 10% to 15% of annual revenue, a figure that surprised analysts. But the criticism from state media is read as a rare signal from Beijing that it isn't pleased with some of Baidu's business practices.
Now Chinese Internet users and bloggers are demanding that the company changes the search model. And advertisers could be adding to the pressure to change the ad system. They are currently paying Baidu whenever customers erroneously visit their sites searching for something else.
This is to say nothing of a deteriorating environment in general, or the loss of another leg of support as the yuan's appreciation against the U.S. dollar stalls. China sets the currency's exchange rate daily, and after years of letting it rise has kept it relatively stable since July.
With U.S.-listed Baidu reporting its results in dollars, year-over-year yuan appreciation has been a real boon--accounting for as much as 18% of revenue growth in the third quarter, Citi's Brueschke estimates.
Baidu shares have rebounded 36% from of their lows since plummeting on the CCTV report, but investors should know that there may be more shoes to drop for the once-loved Chinese search engine.
在经济滑坡之际改变业务模式是明智之举，但是在目前的环境下，如果一家公司迫于压力而转而采用一种利润率更低的业务模式，那可完全是另外一码事了，百度在线网络技术公司就可能面临这个问题。
在受到中国政府方面的批评之后，百度也面临着来自互联网用户的压力，用户要求百度将赞助商的链接与未付费搜索结果明确区分开来。与谷歌不同的是，百度目前并未这样做。
百度已经在测试一种新的广告模式，这种模式将付费广告置于页面右端。目前尚不清楚百度是否会放弃原先那种将付费广告与自动搜索结果放在一起的做法，百度也没有澄清其计划，仅仅表示系统测试刚刚开始。
不过，百度很有可能不满意这一结果。广告商会根据用户通过链接对其网页的点击量来向百度付费。据Citi Investment Research分析师Jason Brueschke估算，如果被明确标识，付费广告被点击的可能性会下降20%-30%。
但尽管如此，百度的确面临着外界的压力，要求其更明确地区分付费广告与自动搜索结果。这个问题是在去年11月份浮出水面的，之前中国中央电视台对百度的一些做法进行了曝光，称该公司通过竞价排名将一些未经授权的医药公司列入到搜索结果中。
百度的第一个回应是停止接受来自这些公司的广告，并表示将为此每年损失10%-15%的收入，这一数据令分析师们感到诧异。不过中央电视台的批评被解读为中国政府对百度的一些商业行为感到不悦。
现在中国的互联网用户和博主们要求百度改变该搜索模式。而且广告商们可能也希望百度改变其广告模式。目前即使用户是在搜索其他信息时误点了广告商的网页，广告商也要向百度付费。
面对全球经济环境进一步恶化以及人民币兑美元升值步伐停滞不前，百度这时改变业务模式代价不小。中国每日都会确定人民币兑美元汇率中间价，人民币汇率在经过数年的升值后，从去年7月份以来兑美元相对持稳。
作为一家美国上市公司，百度的业绩是以美元计价的，花旗的Brueschke估算，每年人民币升值给百度带来的提振作用相当大，去年第三季度百度增长的收入中有18%来自于人民币升值。
中央电视台的报导令百度股价一度暴跌，但目前已经反弹了36%，不过得提醒下投资者们，这个昔日受投资者青睐的中国搜索引擎公司今后可能还会爆出更多负面消息。
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发表于 2016-8-12 16:31:10