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China's Trade Plunges To Worst In A Decade
The decline in China's foreign trade is now officially the most severe in at least a decade -- and manufacturers are under pressure to find new customers abroad and at home.
Exports in December fell 2.8% from a year earlier, extending November's 2.2% decline, China's Customs agency said Tuesday. Imports fell harder, dropping 21.3% in December after a 17.9% fall in November.
Though the import decline was accentuated by the recent sharp fall in commodity prices, it's a worrying sign that China is buying less from other countries just as it has more trouble selling to them.
Those strains are on display in Yiwu, a city four hours drive southwest of Shanghai that is home to a vast wholesale market that sells everything from Valentine's Day decorations to socks to glittering costume jewelry, all for cents on the dollar. The Yiwu International Commodity Trade City, with over 60,000 stores, covers 150 hectares, a vast complex that would take weeks to explore in its entirety.
In good times, Yiwu is overrun with buyers from the U.S., Europe and the Middle East, buying products such as zippers and notebooks in bulk. Now merchants say sales are down 30%, and they are trying to make up the shortfall by cultivating new markets in Latin America and Russia, as well as in China.
There has been little success so far. Shifting from foreign markets to domestic consumers is easier said than done, business owners at Yiwu Trade City say.
Pan Lifen runs a store selling stuffed toys catering to a mostly Russian clientele. Her profit margins are already a slim 2% to 3%, and re-angling her business to local Chinese clientele, who pay less, 'isn't worth it,' she said, arranging a row of 80-cent stuffed pink poodles.
Like consumers around the world, Chinese households are spooked by worsening economic prospects and rising unemployment. Measures of consumer confidence are plunging, as are purchases of housing and durable goods. And consumers in China -- which is still a developing and heavily rural nation -- just don't have as much money to spend as their rich-world counterparts. China's per-capita income is about one-ninth that of the U.S.
While China's leaders have been talking up the need for China to rely more on its own domestic demand for growth, there was little real pressure to make the shift during the boom times.
Now that exports are shrinking, there is less prospect of Chinese consumption aiding growth globally, or at home.
Exports have contributed around 20% of China's economic growth since 2005, up from a single-digit share in previous years. That boost from overseas demand helped to charge China's five-year run of 10%-plus economic growth. It won't be easy to replace that quickly, one reason why China's growth rate is expected to slow sharply this year to 8% or lower.
'China's dependence on external demand is still very high,' said Wang Yiming of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research in Beijing. 'Adjusting the structure of demand is a very important task, but one that can't be accomplished in the short term.'
In Yiwu, some early bets on the Chinese consumer aren't working out well. One of the more ambitious ventures was the opening of a new import-focused wing in late 2007, which was intended to bring in South Korean child seats, Californian wines, Japanese ceramics and Italian shoes for domestic Chinese consumers. Over a year later, traders in that section report hardly any business at all.
Colin Wu, a Chicago businessman, in late 2007 leased 12,000 square meters at Yiwu's market with the intention of selling goods such as car lubricants from Washington state, bottled Canadian spring water and Charles Shaw wine from California, popularly known as Two Buck Chuck.
With China's documented problems with product quality, Mr. Wu thought he would be able to find local customers willing to pay more for imported goods that are safer and healthier. Instead, he has lost almost all of his 10 million yuan investment, he said. He is now using only about a sixth of his leased space, and is considering closing down entirely this year.
China's government isn't doing enough to help importers tap the domestic Chinese market, Mr. Wu said. He said he would like to see lower import taxes that would help him price his goods competitively. After accounting for duties and tariffs, 'my Two Buck Chuck is more like Ten Buck Chuck,' wholesale, Mr. Wu said.
Yiwu is 'too dependent on exports. People are having a hard time rethinking that model,' he said, looking at boxes of unsold merchandise in his cavernous store.
从官方正式公布的外贸数据看，中国去年12月份的外贸降幅至少是10年来最大的，制造商们正承受着在国内外市场找到新客户的压力。
海关总署周二宣布，中国12月份的出口额比上年同期下降2.8%，较11月份2.2%的跌幅又有扩大。进口额的跌幅更大，12月份继前月下跌17.9%之后又比上年同期下降了21.3% 。
虽然大宗商品价格近期的急剧下跌对进口降幅起了加大作用，但12月份进口额的大幅下降仍是一个令人担忧的迹象，显示中国在出口难度增加的同时也在减少从其他国家的进口。
European Pressphoto Agency
上海一个港口堆放的集装箱中国进出口的这种疲态在距上海四小时车程的义乌显露无遗，这座在上海西南方向的城市有一座巨大的批发市场，从情人节的装饰物，到短袜和闪闪发光的人造珠宝，这里的小商品琳琅满目，许多商品的售价都不超过1美元。义乌国际商贸城占地150公顷，有60,000多家商铺，人们要花上数周才能将它全部逛遍。
在生意兴隆的那些日子，义乌到处都是来自美国、欧洲和中东的买家，他们成批购买拉链和笔记本等产品。商户们说销售额现在下降了30%，为了弥补损失，他们正努力在拉美、俄罗斯和中国本土开辟新的市场。
但这一努力迄今为止收效甚微。义乌国际商贸城的商户们说，从外销转做国内生意，这件事说起来容易做起来难。
潘丽芬经营着一家出售毛绒玩具的商铺，主要面向俄罗斯客户。她边摆放一排单只售价80美分的毛绒狮子狗边对记者说，由于利润率本已只有微薄的2%至3%，因此转做国内客户的生意“不值得”，后者出的钱更低。
与世界其他地方的消费者一样，中国家庭也因经济前景不断恶化、失业率日渐上扬而勒紧了钱袋。消费者信心大幅下跌，住房和耐用品的购买量也显著下降。在中国这样一个大部分人口仍居住在农村的发展中国家，消费者的购买力是无法与富裕国家的人相提并论的。中国的人均收入只有美国的九分之一。
虽然中国领导人一直强调需要更多依靠国内需求来推动经济增长，但在经济状况好的时候，人们却感受不到什么实现这一转变的真正压力。
既然出口正在萎缩，中国消费推动全球以及国内经济增长的前景也在转黯。
自2005年以来，出口对中国经济增长的贡献率一直在20%左右，明显高于此前的10%以下。来自海外市场的旺盛需求推动中国经济连续5年实现了10%以上的高增长。要迅速找到能替代出口的经济推动力量并非易事。这也是为何人们预计中国今年的经济增长速度将大幅放缓至8%甚至更低的原因之一。
国家发改委宏观经济研究院副院长王一鸣说，中国对外部需求的依赖度仍然非常高，虽然调整需求结构是项非常重要的任务，但这却不是短期内能够完成的。
在义乌，转做国内客户生意的初步尝试并未取得理想效果。2007年末时，义乌国际商贸城新开辟了一个重点做进口生意的区域，商家们希望能在那里将韩国产儿童座椅、加利福尼亚的葡萄酒、日本陶瓷产品以及意大利鞋卖给中国消费者。现在一年多过去了，在那一区域经营的商户们说几乎没做成任何生意。
2007年底，来自芝加哥的商人Colin Wu在义乌市场租下了12,000平方米的摊位，打算出售美国华盛顿州生产的汽车润滑剂、加拿大瓶装矿泉水以及加州的Charles Shaw葡萄酒。
Colin Wu当时想，由于中国出现了一系列产品质量问题，会有国内客户愿意多花些钱购买更安全、更健康的进口产品。然而天不随人愿，他说自己投入的1,000万元（约150万美元）几乎都赔光了。Colin Wu租下的摊位现在只有约六分之一在使用，他正在考虑今年将生意全部停掉。
Colin Wu说，中国政府在帮助进口商开拓国内市场方面也做得不够。他说希望政府能降低进口税，这样他的产品就能具有价格竞争力。Colin Wu说，在加上关税成本后，他的“两美元葡萄酒”差不多要卖十美元了。
他边看着自己空荡荡店铺里一瓶瓶未卖出的葡萄酒边说，义乌太过依赖出口，要反思这一模式不太容易。
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发表于 2016-8-12 16:31:08