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Banks Show a Lack of Reserve 2009年1月20日
Get ready for an old-fashioned banking crunch.
So far, the banks that have been hardest hit committed new-age sins during the credit bubble. They owned excessive toxic securities, relied too heavily on flighty funding sources or wrote too many at-risk mortgages. Now, as the economy worsens, even the banks with more traditional balance sheets are feeling serious pain as job losses and other factors cause defaults to soar.
The fourth-quarter bank-earnings season, kicked off Thursday by J.P. Morgan Chase, will shed light on which banks are strong enough to build up their credit-loss reserves in the face of rising bad loans. Those that aren't could spook investors, not to mention regulators.
J.P. Morgan's fourth-quarter reserving sets a benchmark against which other banks will be judged. The bank increased its loan-loss reserve to $23.8 billon in the fourth quarter, resulting in a $7.3 billion hit to earnings. While that was painful, it raised the credit loss cushion to 3.62% of total loans. That ratio is 26% higher than at the end of the third quarter, a big increase.
While every bank's loan book is different, failure by other banks to post substantial increases in this reserve ratio could well unnerve investors. It is one metric that will be looked at closely Friday when Citigroup and Bank of America report fourth-quarter results.
Citi's loan-loss reserve was 3.48% at the end of the third quarter. Given the risk in Citi's loan book, that ratio needs to rise even though taking it higher could eat a massive hole in fourth-quarter earnings, and thus deplete its capital.
Wells Fargo's stock plunged nearly 13% Thursday. Seeing the fourth-quarter credit deterioration in J.P. Morgan's home-equity book, investors may now fear higher-than-expected losses in Wells's $84 billion portfolio. Over one-third of those home-equity loans are in crisis-hit California.
Another important measure involves comparing the reserve to the amount of loans that are past-due because many of these may have to be written off.
At J.P. Morgan, the reserve as a percentage of these nonperforming loans fell to 260% in the fourth quarter, from 287% in the third quarter. Keeping that ratio constant or even increasing it -- as the bank did in the third quarter -- would have looked more conservative, but earnings would have suffered even more. J.P. Morgan responds that a change in its loan mix is partly behind the reduction in this ratio.
The reserve-to-nonperformers ratio will be particularly important for BofA, because this ratio fell to 173% in the third quarter, from 187% in the second period. That drop looked aggressive.
Building it back up to second-quarter levels would cause another big hit to earnings, already set to be hammered by a big Merrill Lynch write-down. But failure to do so, as BofA goes back to the government for aid, could be signal that capital cushions still aren't high enough.
美国银行业准备金依然吃紧
准备应对一场老式的银行危机吧。
目前为止，那些受到打击最严重的银行在信贷泡沫时期犯下了新世纪的罪行。它们持有了过多的问题资产，过于依赖不稳定的融资来源，或发行了过多高风险抵押贷款。如今随着经济状况恶化，失业问题和其他因素导致贷款违约事件显著增加，即便那些有着更为传统资产负债表的银行也感受到了沉重压力。
随着上周四摩根大通公布业绩，银行业拉开了公布第四财季业绩的大幕。届时就将清楚哪些银行实力雄厚，储备了足够的信贷损失准备金以应对不断增加的坏帐。那些没有做好充分准备的银行可能会令投资者避退三舍，更别提监管部门了。
Associated Press 摩根大通首席执行长戴蒙摩根大通第四财季准备金为其他银行设立了一个评判标尺。该行当季将贷款损失准备金总额提高到了238亿美元，收益则受到了73亿美元的影响。尽管这带来了沉重压力，但摩根大通贷款损失准备金占贷款总额的比例也相应提高到了3.62%，较第三财季末显著增加了26%。
尽管每家银行的贷款帐面有所不同，但如果其他银行不能大举提高准备金率，就很可能会令投资者感到紧张。上周五花旗集团和美国银行公布第四财季业绩时，这个比率也受到了密切关注。
花旗集团第三财季末贷款损失准备金率为3.48%。鉴于花旗集团贷款帐面的风险，这一比例需要显著提高，即便这可能会给银行第四财季业绩带来巨大亏空，并因此大量损耗银行资本。
富国银行股价上周四重挫近13%。看到第四财季摩根大通物业套现贷款帐面上贷款状况恶化，投资者可能开始担心富国银行840亿美元投资组合的损失会高于此前预期。这些物业套现贷款中有三分之一以上都是来自遭受危机重创的加州。
另一个重要指标是准备金与逾期贷款的比例，因为许多此类贷款可能被迫冲销。
以摩根大通为例，该行第四财季准备金占这些不良贷款的比例降到了260%，低于第三财季的287%。保持不变或是提高这一比率（如同摩根大通第三财季所做的）可能看起来较为保守，但银行业绩可能会遭受更为沉重的冲击。摩根大通回应道，贷款组合的一个变化是上述比例下降的部分原因。
对美国银行而言，准备金与不良贷款的比例尤为重要，因为这个比例从第二季度的187%降至第三财季的173%。降幅看起来非常显著。
要将这个比例恢复到第二财季水平的话，美国银行的业绩在遭受美林公司大笔冲销带来的冲击之外，可能还要再次承受沉重压力。但随着美国银行向政府申请救助，如果不这么做，可能就意味着美国银行的资本基础仍然不够高。
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发表于 2016-8-12 16:31:05