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Taiwan Joins Devaluation Game
Signs are mounting that Taiwan's central bank has gone from trying to keep its currency from falling too fast to actually holding it down.
Such a move, ostensibly aimed at giving the country's exporters some relief from crumbling markets, is guaranteed to irk the island's neighbors. At least, that is, until it inspires them to do the same.
It isn't uncommon for Taiwan's central bank to smooth the day-to-day moves of the New Taiwan dollar by buying or selling the currency and others. Lately, though, currency traders have said the central bank has been most active in selling its own currency and buying U.S. dollars.
Analysts at HSBC estimate the central bank bought a net $1.5 billion in November, becoming a net buyer for the first time since the Taiwanese currency started to fall in August.
The central bank declined to say what its approach is but acknowledged that it is intervening to ensure the exchange rate isn't 'incompatible with fundamentals.' Those fundamentals would almost surely include a nearly 42% decline in exports in December.
The currency is down nearly 2% against the U.S. dollar -- and almost 9% against a stronger Japanese yen -- since the end of September.
This week, Taiwan reported that its foreign-exchange holdings rose 4% in December from November, and 8% from December last year. That is the second consecutive monthly increase -- and the strongest evidence yet of the central bank's swing from seller of U.S. dollars to buyer. The reserves are now valued at $292 billion.
Taiwan isn't alone in holding its currency lower. Hong Kong has openly been selling its currency for the past two months, although that is to maintain its currency peg against the greenback.
And there are signs that others could be doing the same thing. Several Asian exporters that have already released data on last month's reserves have reported increases from November levels, although it is only in Taiwan's case that traders claim knowledge of the central bank's intentions.
In either case, other exporters can hardly sit by and watch Taiwan make such moves without responding. One chief rival in the electronics sphere, South Korea, has room to breathe.
The Korean won was down 28% against the New Taiwan dollar during the past year. But now that the Taiwanese currency has joined the devaluation game, it is down 8% against the won since early December.
Concern about falling Asian currencies is starting to look passe. Instead, the year of the ox could bring with it the real possibility that Asian currencies will engage in a depreciation cycle against the U.S. dollar.
越来越多的迹象显示，台湾央行已经放弃了此前努力阻止汇率过快下挫的立场，转为实际推动新台币贬值。
此举表面是为了缓解市场动荡给台湾出口商带来的冲击，肯定会激起周边邻国的不满，这种不满至少会持续到它们也同样将本币贬值为止。
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台湾央行总裁彭淮南台湾央行其实经常通过买卖新台币和其他货币来降低新台币汇率的日常波动幅度。不过汇市交易员表示，台湾央行最近一直在非常积极地抛售新台币、买入美元。
汇丰的分析师估计，台湾央行在11月净买入了15亿美元，自去年8月新台币汇率开始下行以来，台湾央行的月度美元买进量首次超过了卖出量。
台湾央行拒绝透露其汇市操作的用意，但它承认，正在实施干预以确保汇率不会和经济基本面相矛盾。这些基本面几乎肯定包括了去年12月台湾出口下滑将近42%的状况。
自去年9月底以来，新台币兑美元将近下挫了2%，对表现更强劲的日圆贬值了将近9%。
台湾本周公布，12月份外汇储备较11月增加4%，较上年同期增加了8%。这是台湾外汇储备连续第二个月较上月增长，也是迄今显示台湾央行正从抛售美元转为买入美元的最有力证据。台湾目前的外汇储备价值2,920亿美元。
台湾并不是唯一压低本币汇率的地区。过去两个月香港一直在公开抛售港元，虽然此举是为了维持港元兑美元的联系汇率。
目前有迹象显示其他地区可能同样会推动本币贬值。从已经公布的数据看，几个亚洲出口经济体上个月的外汇储备均较11月有所增加，虽然只有台湾的这一现象被交易员们明确解读为是央行干预汇市所致。
不管怎样，其他出口经济体很难坐视台湾央行采取此类举措，而不采取相应对策。韩国是台湾在电子产品领域的一个主要竞争对手，该国的汇率形势还不太严峻。
过去一年韩圆兑新台币下跌了28%。但新台币目前已经加入了贬值大潮，自12月初以来新台币兑韩圆下滑了8%。
现在再谈担心亚洲货币贬值已经开始显得不合时宜。亚洲货币交替兑美元贬值很可能会在牛年成为现实。
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发表于 2016-8-12 16:31:04