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India's GDP Growth Slows As Downturn Hits Farmers
2009年3月2日
India's economy grew at the slowest rate in almost six years, 5.3% in the quarter ended Dec. 31, signaling the global downturn's impact even in a nation less dependent on exports than others in Asia.
The figures cast some doubt on predictions that India would escape relatively unscathed compared with markets such as China and Singapore. Gross domestic product grew 8.9% in the same period the year before and 7.6% in the previous quarter, the Central Statistical Organization said Friday.
Recessions in key export markets such as the U.S. and Europe have prompted Indian exporters to cut production and lay off workers. Manufacturing output dropped 0.2%, compared with a rise of 8.6% in the year-earlier period. Capital inflows, which played a big role in fueling local demand in recent years, have all but dried up as risk-averse investors shun emerging markets.
Growth in the latest quarter was hit by declining manufacturing and agricultural output. A 2.2% drop in farm production from a year earlier is likely to become an issue as India prepares for national elections that must be held by May. Agriculture employs about 60% of India's 1.2 billion population.
The United Progressive Alliance coalition government, led by the Congress Party, has touted its efforts to boost rural growth and employment during its five-year tenure. In the year-earlier quarter, agricultural output rose 6.9%.
Economists cautioned that growth numbers may well be adjusted higher. Still, Indian stocks fell and the Indian rupee weakened to a record low against the U.S. dollar.
Many observers expect the Reserve Bank of India, the nation's central bank, to use a further interest rate cut and other efforts to increase liquidity in the financial system and spur growth. Ratings agencies warned recently that India's swelling debt could cost the country its investment-grade rating. Since early October, the Reserve Bank of India has cut its key lending rate, the repurchase rate, by 3.5 percentage points.
Gregory L. White / Alexander Kolyandr
印度GDP增速放缓至六年低点
印度经济去年第四季度增长5.3%，是6年来的最慢增速，显示出口依赖程度低于亚洲其他国家的印度也受到了全球经济萧条的影响。
这个数字让有关印度的增长预期遭受了某种程度的质疑，此前的预期是，同中国和新加坡等市场相比，印度将基本不会受到金融海啸影响。印度统计局上周五说，2007年第四季度，印度国内生产总值增长了8.9%；2008年第三季度增长了7.6%。
Associated Press 全球经济下滑导致海外需求下降，印度很多工人因此失业
美国和欧洲等主要出口市场的衰退迫使印度出口商选择了减产和裁员。第四季度制造业产值下降了0.2%，而2007年同期则增长8.6%。资本流入近年来在推动本地需求方面发挥了重要作用，但随着规避风险的投资者远离新兴市场，资本流入几乎枯竭。
去年第四季度的经济增长受到了制造业和农业产值下滑的打击。随着印度为必须在5月份前举行的大选做准备，农业产值比上年同季度减少2.2%可能会成为一个问题。农业吸纳的就业人数占印度12亿人口中的约60%。
国大党领导的印度团结进步联盟联合政府，一直在宣传它在5年任期中为促进农村发展和就业方面所做的努力。在2007年第四季度，农业产值增长了6.9%。
经济学家提醒说，增长数字很可能会调高。不过，印度股市出现了下跌，印度卢比兑美元也创出了历史低点。
许多观察人士预计，印度央行将通过进一步减息和其它手段增加金融系统的流动性，刺激增长。评级机构近期警告说，印度负债的猛增可能使该国债务的评级保不住投资级地位。自去年10月初以来，印度央行已将主导贷款利率即回购利率下调了3.5个百分点。
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发表于 2016-8-12 16:30:50