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US-China Relations Get Trickier
It's pretty obvious that North Korea's firing of a long-range missile will test President Barack Obama's ability to strong-arm the regime of Kim Jong Il, who has elevated erratic behavior to an art form.
Less obvious, but perhaps even more important: North Korea's weekend shot tests the new president's ability to work with China, the country that has far and away the most leverage on North Korea yet seems less willing to use it than it was just a couple of years ago.
It's no exaggeration to say China today represents North Korea's lifeline. It is the North's leading trading partner, primary source of energy and principal facilitator in the outside world. In fact, new trade figures show the North only growing more dependent on China. So when Mr. Obama called for the international community to act promptly to punish North Korea after its missile test, he was essentially asking China to go along with the idea of slapping down Pyongyang and its 'dear leader.'
On the surface, at least, the initial results can't be too encouraging to the president. The United Nations Security Council was summoned for an emergency Sunday meeting to decide how to respond to a missile firing that appeared to be not only an attempt to perfect a nuclear-weapons-delivery vehicle, but also a violation of a 2006 U.N. resolution. But the Security Council broke up without so much as issuing a statement, much less passing any new resolutions or sanctions. That's largely because China balked.
What was striking wasn't merely that reluctance to act, but also the stark difference in tone between the U.S. and China. Within hours of the firing, Mr. Obama declared: 'This action demands a response from the international community, including from the United Nations Security Council, to demonstrate that its resolution cannot be defied with impunity.'
China replied by saying, essentially, 'Now, now, let's not get too excited.' Its ambassador to the U.N., Zhang Yesui, declared: 'Our position is that all countries concerned should show restraint and refrain from taking actions that might lead to increased tensions.' It's still early in the diplomatic game, of course, and China may merely be saying that it would rather deal with the problem not at the U.N. but in the so-called six-party talks, in which the U.S., China, South Korea, Russia and Japan have been sitting across from North Korea for the past five years, trying to find a path away from the nuclear abyss.
Whatever the forum, though, the first predicate for meaningful action will be some level of agreement between the U.S. and China.
John Bolton, who was the American ambassador to the U.N. under President George W. Bush, says flatly that the Chinese 'are the only ones who can stop the North Korean nuclear program. . . . I think they are the only country that has any real leverage over North Korea.'
Indeed, it was only China's anger over a North Korean nuclear test in 2006, and its agreement to punish Pyongyang, that produced U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718, the most meaningful international sanctions yet imposed.
But Mr. Bolton also sees a China still engaged in wishful thinking about the nuclear danger. 'Their view is they just keep hoping that the U.S. and North Korea will come to a deal and it will just go away,' he says.
The underlying problem is that the longstanding American goal on the Korean peninsula -- reunification of the North and South -- is precisely what the Chinese fear. Beijing doesn't oppose reunification so much as frets over the unpredictable turmoil that might ripple out from a toppling of the Kim regime: internal unrest, conflict between North and South, and Korean refugees by the hundreds of thousands fleeing into China.
Yet China's leverage over the North is, if anything, greater than it was in 2006, and mounting. The Institute for Far Eastern Studies, a South Korean think tank, reports that North Korean imports from China soared 46% in 2008 over the previous year, according to Chinese government figures. More than half of those imports came in the form of 'mineral resources' -- mostly, that is, energy. Without China, even fewer lights would go on in the North Korean night.
The institute says the North's increased international isolation has made its trade with China even more important. The giant trade deficit it runs with Beijing is exacerbated by 'isolation from the rest of the international community, leaving it little choice but to continue trading at prices set by the Chinese.'
This very economic dependence, though, likely makes the Chinese reluctant to push too hard with additional economic sanctions -- which might well strike at the North's banking system -- lest the whole house of cards collapse into uncontrollable chaos. 'Maybe the Chinese feel that the six-party talks are still the answer, and they don't want to push ahead too aggressively for fear that everything will unravel and we'll get no place,' says Leonard Spector, deputy director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
Figuring out a strategy to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat is a challenge, to be sure. But it's only the second one on Mr. Obama's list. The first is to come to agreement with China on that strategy.
很明显，朝鲜发射一枚远程导弹的行动将考验奥巴马总统对金正日政权施加高压手段的能力。金正日已经把怪异的行为上升到了登峰造极的水平。
较为不明显、却可能更加重要的是：朝鲜上周末的导弹发射也将考验新任总统与中国合作的能力；中国无疑对朝鲜有着最大的影响力，但看起来却不像几年前那么愿意使用这种影响力了。
毫不夸张地说，中国现在相当于是朝鲜的生命线。中国是朝鲜最大的贸易伙伴、主要的能源来源、以及外部世界里重要的援助者。实际上，新的贸易数据显示，朝鲜对中国的依赖越来越强。所以，当奥巴马呼吁国际社会在朝鲜进行了导弹测试后立即采取行动惩罚朝鲜时，他实际上是在要求中国赞成压制平壤和其“敬爱的领袖”的想法。
至少表面上看，初步的结果对奥巴马来说并不是很令人鼓舞。联合国安理会周日召开紧急会议，决定该对朝鲜的导弹发射做出怎样的反应：朝鲜的行动看起来不仅是在试图完善核武器运载火箭，而且也违反了2006年的联合国决议。不过，安理会会议结束时并没有发表声明，更不用说是通过任何新的决议或是制裁了。这主要是因为中国拒绝这样做。
令人吃惊的不只是中国不愿采取行动，还有美国和中国态度的明显不同。在朝鲜发射导弹后几个小时内，奥巴马即表示：国际社会，包括联合国安理会，必须对这一行动做出反应，以表明任何人都不能蔑视其决议而不受惩罚。
而中国做出的反应实际上是在说：好了，好了，不要太激动。中国常驻联合国代表张业遂说：中方希望有关各方保持冷静与克制，避免采取可能导致局势进一步升级的行动。当然这还只是外交搏奕的开始，中国的意思可能只是说，它希望通过六方会谈而不是联合国来解决问题。过去5年中，参与六方会谈的美国、中国、韩国、俄罗斯和日本一直在与朝鲜进行谈判，试图找到一种解决朝核问题的途径。
不过，无论是六方会谈还是联合国，有意义的行动的第一步将是美国和中国达成某种程度的一致。
曾在布什时期担任美国驻联合国代表的博尔顿直截了当地说，中国是唯一可以阻止朝鲜核计划的国家……我认为他们是唯一对朝鲜真有影响力的国家。
实际上，完全是因为中国对2006年朝鲜核测试的恼火，以及中国同意惩罚平壤，才使得联合国安理会1718号决议得以诞生，这也是迄今为止实施的最有意义的国际制裁。
不过，博尔顿认为，中国仍然对核危险抱有幻想。他说，他们认为只需坚持希望美国和朝鲜达成协议，一切问题都会烟消云散。
根本的问题是美国在朝鲜半岛上一直以来的目标是南北统一，而这正是中国担心的。北京方面并不是那么反对南北统一，而是担心金正日的政权被颠覆后，造成的难以预见的动荡可能会带来波及效应：朝鲜国内的动荡、南北之间的冲突、成千上万的朝鲜难民逃到中国。
不过，中国对朝鲜的影响力比2006年时要大，而且还在不断增强。韩国智库远东研究所在报告中表示，据中国政府数据显示，2008年朝鲜对中国进口较上年飙升46%。其中有一半以上是以“矿产资源”形式进口的，通常来讲就是能源。没有中国，朝鲜夜晚点亮的灯都会减少。
远东研究所说，朝鲜越来越脱离国际社会，这使它与中国的贸易变得更为重要。朝鲜与国际社会隔绝，除了继续以中国设定的价格进行贸易之外几乎别无选择，因此平壤与北京之间的巨额贸易逆差不断扩大。
不过，正是这种经济上的依赖可能使中国不愿采取更多的经济制裁来逼迫朝鲜（这可能还会打击朝鲜的银行体系），以免整个不切实际的计划破灭，陷入无法控制的混乱局面。防扩散研究中心副主任斯派克特说，或许中国人觉得六方会谈仍是解决之道，他们不想太激烈地强迫朝鲜，因为他们担心事情会一发不可收拾，我们会毫无进展。
找到解决朝核问题的策略无疑是一项挑战。不过这对奥巴马来说只是次要的。他的首要任务是先要与中国就这一策略达成一致。
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发表于 2016-8-12 16:30:21