国际能源机构

英语自学网

China will be at the forefront of combating climate change by 2020 if it meets government targets on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the International Energy Agency suggests.
         
        　　The finding contrasts sharply with the widespread image internationally of China as a country of inefficient, carbon-intensive industry that is resisting international calls to curb its emissions.
         
        　　Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist, said: “If China reaches its targets – and in the past, it has reached most of its targets of this kind – its emissions [growth] will have declined so much by 2020 that it will be the country that has achieved the largest emission reductions. China will be at the forefront of combating climate change.”
         
        　　China's strong showing in curbing emissions will make negotiations on a new global agreement on climate change easier.
         
        　　Under any such agreement, which governments are hoping to forge at a conference in Copenhagen in December, emerging economies would be required to take certain “measurable, reportable and verifiable” actions on CO2.
         
        　　These would not amount to absolute cuts in emissions, but would be designed to curb the growth of emissions, ensuring greenhouse gas output did not reach the levels expected under “business as usual” conditions.
         
        　　China's actions, if followed up with further tough targets, would be enough to meet these requirements.
         
        　　However, Beijing may still hold out on another element that developed countries would like to see as part of a Copenhagen deal – a commitment on when the country's emissions would peak, and a commitment on a global target of halving emissions by 2050.
         
        　　India surprised the world last week by signalling that it would set national numerical targets for curbing emissions for the first time, after insisting that it would not.
         
        　　But China recently rebuffed western demands by saying its emissions would peak “some time before 2050” – a date too distant to satisfy developed countries, and one that scientists regard as disastrous if dangerous climate change is to be avoided.
         
        　　Mr Birol said China was doing the right things to curb emissions. “China has declared three very important targets: to increase the share of renewables and nuclear [power] in electricity generation, an energy intensity target, restructuring and rebalancing their economy,” he said.
         
        　　The targets are part of Beijing's current five-year plan. Future five-year plans would need to incorporate further stringent measures if the country's momentum on carbon-curbing is to be maintained to 2020.
         
        　　China is also directing about a third of its economic stimulus to green ends, according to research by the bank HSBC.
         
        　　国际能源机构称，如果中国能达到有关削减温室气体排放的政府目标，到2020年，中国将跻身于对抗气候变化的前沿。
         
        　　这一发现与国际上对中国的普遍看法形成鲜明对比。在许多人眼中，中国拥有效率低下、碳排放强度高的工业，而且对要求其限制排放的国际呼声持抵制态度。
         
        　　国际能源机构首席经济学家法提赫?比罗尔表示：“如果中国达到自己的各项目标——过去，该国达到了多数这样的目标——其排放（增幅）下降幅度之大，意味着到2020年，中国将成为减排量最大的国家。中国将跻身于对抗气候变化的前沿。”
         
        　　中国在抑制排放方面的有力表现，将有助于推动相关谈判，以求缔结一份有关气候变化的全球新协定。
         
        　　各国政府希望在12月哥本哈根大会上达成相关协议。任何此类协议都将要求新兴经济体在二氧化碳排放问题上，采取某些“可衡量、可报告和可核查的”行动。
         
        　　这些行动不会带来排放量的绝对削减，但其宗旨将是遏制排放增长，确保温室气体排放量不会达到“一切照常”情况下预期会达到的水平。
         
        　　中国的行动，若辅之以进一步的严格目标，将足以满足这些要求。
         
        　　不过，在发达国家希望哥本哈根协议包含的另一个元素上，北京仍可能不愿让步。这个元素就是承诺中国的排放量到何时将达到峰值，并对到2050年减排50%的全球目标作出承诺。
         
        　　印度上周让世界意外——该国首次暗示，它将制定量化的减缓排放国家目标。此前该国一直坚持自己不会这么做。
         
        　　但中国最近拒绝了西方的要求，而只是表示中国的排放将在2050年之前的某个时候达到峰值。这个时间点过于遥远，不能满足发达国家的要求，而科学家们认为，就避免危险的气候变化而言，这样的时间点将是灾难性的。
         
        　　国际能源机构的比罗尔表示，中国遏制排放的做法是正确的。“中国宣布了三个非常重要的目标：在电力行业增加可再生能源和核能的比重，制定一个能耗目标，以及重组经济和调整经济平衡，”他表示。
         
        　　这些目标是中国当前五年计划的一部分。未来的五年计划将需要纳入进一步的严格措施，确保中国在2020年之前保持减缓碳排放的势头。
         
        　　根据汇丰银行的研究，中国还正把三分之一的经济刺激投入绿色项目。