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Countries' Debt Woes Pose Risk To Upturn
Worries over finances of some of the world's governments rippled through financial markets Tuesday, as a series of negative credit-rating actions served as a reminder of the fragility of the global recovery.
Fitch Ratings cut Greece's credit rating a notch to the lowest level in the 16-nation euro zone, raising concerns that Athens could be sparking the biggest fiscal crunch the European monetary union has faced in its 10 years.
Moody's Investors Service sliced ratings even more on Dubai government-controlled companies, renewing worries about the Arab emirate. Moody's also said the U.K.'s rating would be at risk if it didn't lower its budget deficit.
Even as a fledgling recovery takes hold, the deterioration of some government balance sheets represents a continuing risk. For certain countries, like Greece, the financial issues largely predated the crisis; for others, like the U.S. and U.K., the problems are an outgrowth of initiatives to fight the economic downturn.
In an interview at The Wall Street Journal's Future of Finance Initiative conference in London, David Cameron, leader of Britain's opposition Conservative Party, said that tackling the U.K.'s massive deficit is 'vital' but that moving too quickly to slash spending could jeopardize a fragile recovery.
Greece's case could present the European Central Bank and the European Union with a dilemma: whether to bail out the country or possibly see a euro-zone member face a debt crisis. The first course could reduce the pressure for fiscal discipline, while the second could damage the credibility of Europe's great single-currency experiment.
Investors reacted by retreating from riskier assets, punishing currencies like the euro and the British pound. Bonds of riskier countries dropped. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 104.14 points to 10285.97, the sharpest fall since Nov. 27, after Dubai said it would delay payments on a government-owned concern's debt.
The euro is the centerpiece of Europe's drive toward closer political union, but skeptics have long warned that a monetary union isn't sustainable without more powerful pan-European political institutions.
Russia's finance minister added to the chorus of concerns Tuesday. He said Russia is 'still a weak link' in the global economy and would be vulnerable in case of a reversal of the tide of money now flowing in, partly because of higher oil prices.
In coming months, Russia is seeking to borrow in foreign currency for the first time since it defaulted on sovereign debt in 1998, triggering a financial convulsion.
Greece's struggles threaten the first real fractures in the European currency union since its inception in 1999. The union has a single currency and monetary policy, but each of its 16 members has its own fiscal policy.
Greece's problems underscore longstanding concerns the European monetary union lacks the tools to make sure members' debts don't spiral out of control. The European Commission can impose fines on Athens, but such a step could make Greece's financial problems even worse.
Investors are also focused on the highest-rated borrowers. The U.S. and U.K. are among those with a triple-A rating, but Moody's cautioned Tuesday that without action to curb deficits, both could drift toward a possible downgrade.
政府债务危机可能危及全球经济复苏 关于全球部分政府财政状况的担忧情绪周二扩散到了金融市场，因为一系列下调信用评级的举动再次提醒投资者，全球经济复苏形势依然脆弱。
惠誉国际评级将希腊的主权信用评级下调一级，至欧元区16国的最低水平，市场因此担心希腊可能会给欧元区带来成立10年来最为严重的财政危机。
穆迪投资者服务公司则更大幅度地下调迪拜政府控股公司的评级，从而再次引发了市场对迪拜的担忧情绪。穆迪还说，如果英国不能削减预算赤字，该国也会面临下调评级的风险。
正当刚刚成形的经济复苏势头确立之际，一些政府资产负债表的状况恶化带来了一个持续性风险。对希腊等部分国家来说，财政问题基本可以追溯到危机爆发之前；而美国和英国等其他国家的财政问题则来自于意在遏制经济下滑的巨额刺激计划。
英国在野党保守党领袖卡梅隆在《华尔街日报》在伦敦召开的未来金融动议会议上接受采访时说，解决英国巨额赤字的问题很重要，但操之过急地大幅削减支出则可能会危及经济复苏的脆弱势头。
希腊的情况可能给欧洲央行和欧盟带来一个两难问题：是伸手救助希腊，还是让希腊面临可能的债务危机。第一个方案可能会降低要求成员国遵守财政纪律的压力，而第二个方案则会损害到欧元区的公信力。
投资者的反应是纷纷撤出高风险资产，抛售欧元和英镑等货币。高风险国家的债券纷纷下跌。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数下跌104.14点，至10285.97点，为11月27日以来的最大跌幅；道琼斯指数11月27日大幅下挫是因为此前迪拜宣布可能推迟偿还政府所有的迪拜世界所欠债务。
在欧洲走向更密切政治联盟的进程中，欧元是一个关键要素。但怀疑人士长期警告说，如果没有更强有力的泛欧洲政治机构，货币联盟会无法维持。
俄罗斯财政部长周二也发表了担忧言论。他说，俄罗斯仍然是全球经济中的薄弱一环，如果目前涌入俄罗斯的资金流出现逆转，俄罗斯经济将容易遭受打击。油价走高是当前促使外资涌入俄罗斯的原因之一。
俄罗斯计划在在未来数月以外币借贷，这是该国自1998年宣布主权债务违约从而引发金融地震以来的首次。
希腊的困境可能会使得欧元区出现自1999年创建以来的首个真正裂缝。欧元区拥有单一的货币和汇率政策，但16个成员国都拥有各自的财政政策。
希腊的问题彰显出欧元区长期以来的担忧，即缺乏手段确保成员国债务不会恶性失控。欧盟委员会可以对希腊实施惩罚，但此类举措可能会使得希腊的财政问题更加糟糕。
投资者还将关注焦点投向了最高评级的借款人。英国和美国都拥有AAA主权信用评级，但穆迪周二警告说，如果不能采取措施遏制赤字，这两国都可能会面临评级下调的风险。
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发表于 2016-8-12 16:29:27