通货膨胀

英语自学网

Europe's Newest Risk: Inflation Europe's nearly $1 trillion rescue plan seems to have quieted the government debt storm for the time being. But another problem may be brewing as Britain and the euro countries tackle their still unresolved fiscal problems: rising inflation rates.
         
        　　Economists at Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley are starting to worry about a harmful jump in inflation despite an absence of strong warning signals in Europe's financial markets. The concern is that Europe's top central bankers, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King, aren't taking as aggressive a stance against inflation as once believed. That view is putting pressure on the U.K. pound and the euro while helping to spark record demand for gold, historically a haven for investors worried that their cash will lose value.
         
        　　The euro dropped Thursday to $1.2570 against the dollar, close to a 14-month low, despite the European Union's 750 billion rescue package for troubled euro-zone countries. The U.K. pound is trading at $1.4715 compared with $1.61 at the start of the year, while the price of gold hit a record of $1,243.10 an ounce this week. Currencies with healthier profiles, including the Swiss franc, the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona, are also enjoying gold-like interest, with the franc hitting records against the euro Thursday.
         
        　　In addition to undermining confidence in currencies, a sudden jump in inflation could frighten the market by eroding the value of investments, such as bonds, that pay fixed interest rates. That, in turn, could make investors demand higher yields when making loans to governments at a time when a mountain of European public debt needs refinancing and worries about possible defaults have surged.
         
        　　Economic growth in Britain and the euro zone remains sluggish, which means the danger of consumer prices rising out of control probably isn't policy makers' biggest concern. And higher inflation might not be so unwelcome among policy makers since it can make existing debts easier to pay off. But some economists are still starting to fret given recent 'dovish'-or inflation-friendly-moves by European central bankers.
         
        　　The European Central Bank's decision on Monday to support Europe's troubled bond markets by buying the government debt of some weaker economies-just days after saying the notion hadn't even been discussed-stunned observers long accustomed to the central bank's hard-nosed, anti-inflation stance.
         
        　　While central bankers in the U.S. and Britain have been printing money and buying bonds to support their hard-hit economies, the ECB has until now mostly resisted such moves. The recent about-face, however, has worried economists and sparked a rare note of dissent from Axel Weber, president of Germany's central bank and a prime candidate to become the European bank's next president.
         
        　　While the ECB isn't printing money-it is raising cash from elsewhere for bond purchases, thereby not affecting overall money supply-some fear it is just a matter of time before the central bank does so. Such fears may be unusually pronounced given Germany's experience of hyperinflation in the early 1920s, an episode seared into the minds of German central bankers such as Mr. Weber.
         
        　　'The sovereign crisis has pushed the ECB into flooding the system with even more liquidity,' Morgan Stanley economist Joachim Fels wrote in a note this week. 'Global excess liquidity should grow by even more, lifting the prices of commodities and other risky assets and adding to global inflation pressures.'
         
        　　欧洲新风险：通货膨胀 欧洲将近1万亿美元的救助计划似乎暂时平抑了主权债务危机。但值此英国及欧元区国家仍试图化解财政困境之时，另一个麻烦或许正在悄然酝酿：欧洲通货膨胀率的不断上升。
         
        　　尽管欧洲金融市场尚未给出明确警示信号，但瑞信及摩根士丹利的经济学家都开始担心通货膨胀率将出现破坏性的跃升。他们担心包括欧洲央行行长特里谢、英国央行行长默文?金在内的各位欧洲央行高级官员将不会像人们以为的那样大力遏制通胀。这种观点给英镑及欧元带来了下行压力，并助推了创纪录的黄金需求，而黄金历来都是那些担心现金贬值的投资者寻求的避风港。
         
        　　Bloomberg News 一些经济学家担心，欧洲央行的高级官员并没有像他们认为的那样采取积极的措施应对通胀。图为，伦敦一个货币兑换处的工作人员手持欧元纸币。虽然欧盟为帮助那些深陷危机的欧元区国家抛出了价值7,500亿欧元的救助计划，但周四欧元跌至兑1.2570美元，创14个月低点。英镑兑1.4715美元，远不及年初时的1.61美元，而本周黄金创下了每盎司1,243.10美元的纪录新高。那些财政状况较好国家的货币，如瑞士法郎、挪威克朗以及瑞典克朗等受到了投资者如黄金般的热捧，周四瑞士法郎兑欧元涨至纪录高位。
         
        　　除了影响投资者对货币的信心外，通货膨胀的骤升也会令市场担心投资收益缩水，诸如支付固定利率的债券等。这一问题可能反过来让投资者要求更高的国债收益率，目前，正有大量欧洲国债需要进行再融资，而且外界对债务违约的担忧情绪明显升温。
         
        　　英国和欧元区经济增长依然疲软，这就意味着消费者价格指数升幅过高的风险并非决策者的心头大患。而且决策者未必那么不愿意看到通货膨率胀上升，因为这将使得现有债务更容易偿付。但是眼见欧洲央行官员采取了“温和”或听任通胀的措施，一些经济学家仍对此感到忧心。
         
        　　欧洲央行周一购买了一些状况不佳的国家的政府债券，支持了身处困境的债券市场。而就在几天前该行还说甚至没有讨论过这一问题，此举令观察人士颇感意外，因为欧洲央行一直是因强硬、反通胀立场而著称。
         
        　　虽然美国和英国央行官员已在开印钞票，并买进国债支持倍受冲击的经济，目前看来欧洲央行在这一方面还是很克制的。不过，欧洲央行近期的立场掉转让经济学家感到担忧，并少有地招致德国央行行长韦伯的反对，他是接替特里谢成为下任欧洲央行行长的第一候选人。
         
        　　虽然欧洲央行没有开始增发钞票（该行从别处融资以购买债券，因此不会造成货币供应总量增加），但有人担心它开动印钞机只是早晚的事。考虑到德国曾经在上世纪20年代初经历过恶性通货膨胀，当时的情景深深烙印在韦伯等德国银行官员的脑海中，人们对通货膨胀的担忧显得格外强烈。
         
        　　摩根士丹利经济学家菲尔斯本周在一份研究报告中说，主权债务危机促使欧洲央行为系统注入更多流动性，全球流动性过剩的居民应会进一步加剧，这将推高商品及其他高风险资产的价格，并加大全球通胀压力。