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Unit 10
Risks
After-Class Reading
PASSAGE I Health Risks
New Words
AIDS
n. 艾滋病,即获得性免疫缺损综合症
bare *
adj. plain, with no additional explanation or information 不掩饰的,直率的
e.g. Did someone tell you the bare outline (概要) of our story?
catastrophic *
adj. 灾难性的
costly *
adj. 代价高的
e.g. The general's decision to invade was a costly mistake.
deficit *
n. 不足额
differ *
v. be different 有区别
e.g. Your taste in music differs from hers.
disproportionately
adv. 不成比例地
immediacy
n. 即时性
incidence *
n. 发生率
incubation
n. (疾病的) 潜伏期
insignificant *
adj. not important or thought to be valuable, especially because of smallness 无足轻重的
e.g. The problem was insignificant compared to others she faced.
lesser
adj. 次要的,较小的
loom *
v. 赫然出现
e.g. An expression of horror crossed their faces as I loomed into view.
nonetheless *
adv. in spite of that; nevertheless 尽管如此
e.g. There was no news; nonetheless, she went on hoping.
notable *
adj. deserving to be noticed or mentioned 值得注意的
e.g. The novelist's first book was a notable achievement.
payable *
adj. to be paid 应付的
e.g. The bill is payable within ninety days.
piper *
n. 管乐器吹奏者
preoccupation
n. state of constantly thinking or worrying about 关注
principally *
adv. mainly 主要地
e.g. The advertising campaign is aimed principally at women.
radiation *
n. 辐射
reassessment *
n. 重新评估
replace *
v. take the place of 代替;取代
e.g. Can anything replace a mother's love and care?
seriousness *
n. 严重性
e.g. the seriousness of an illness
terror *
n. extreme fear 恐怖
e.g. I've never felt so much terror in all my life.
toll *
n. the number of people killed or injured in a particular accident, by a particular illness, etc. (事故等的)伤亡人数
Health Risks
Opinion polls repeatedly tell us that the only thing Americans worry about more than the environment is their health. This is entirely understandable, for health is obviously preferable to illness. What makes today's preoccupation with health slightly surprising is that Americans are far healthier now than they have ever been. Many diseases that once struck terror into hearts have either been completely eliminated or brought under control. Although AIDS is a notable exception, few new mass killers[1] have come along to replace the ones that have been eliminated.
Nonetheless, health—and the various threats to it—remains everyone's permanent concern. After all, more than half of us (57 percent) will die from either heart disease or cancer, if current trends continue.
One major problem with any comparison of health risks—especially life-threatening ones—is that they differ enormously in their immediacy. For instance, AIDS—if you get it—will probably be fatal after a number of years. Cancer induced by smoking or exposure to radiation, on the other hand, may take 20 to 30 years before its catastrophic effects show up. In making choices about health risks, therefore, it is important to bear in mind the likely time lag between taking a risk and suffering its consequences.[2]
Those with a mind to "live for today"[3] are apt to be indifferent to health risks that have a very long incubation period. Although this is short-sighted, it does make sense to discount long-term risks more than short-term ones. After all, when virtually any of us is confronted with the choice of doing something likely to kill us today versus doing something likely to kill us in two decades, the choice is going to be the lesser of the two evils[4].
One commonly used measure to deal with such problems is a concept called years of potential life lost YPLLS. The idea is that for a 25-year-old, doing something that will kill him in 5 years is much more "costly" than doing something that will kill him in 40 years. Both may involve the same element of risk—the same probability of eventually dying from that activity—but a risk that may cause immediate damage is much more costly than one for which the piper needn't be paid for a long time[5]. In the first case, he will have his normal life span cut short by about 45 years; in the latter case, the deficit is about 5 years[6]. Thinking about matters in this light inevitably causes a reassessment of many of the threats to health. For instance, heart disease is the single largest killer of Americans, way[7] in front of cancer or strokes. However, heart disease tends to strike[8] the elderly in much greater proportions than younger people. Cancer, by contrast, kills fewer people but tends to strike somewhat earlier than heart disease. Hence, more(YPLL)are lost to cancer than to heart disease—despite the greater incidence of fatal heart cases. Specifically, cancers claim[9] about 25 percent more (YPLL)than heart disease (if we define the YPLL as a year of life lost before age 65).
The concept of YPLLs has an important, if controversial, influence on issues in health care economics. It is frequently argued that money devoted to medical research on curing diseases should be divided up on the basis of the number of lives lost to each disease. Thus, some critics of the massive levels of funding devoted to AIDS research claim that—compared to killers such as heart disease and cancer—AIDS receives a disproportionately high support. That criticism fails to consider the fact that AIDS, by virtue of striking people principally in their 20s and 30s, generates far more YPLLs than the bare figure of 20,000 deaths per year, bad as that is, might suggest.[10] Put differently, finding a cure for AIDS would be likely to add about 25 to 30 years to the life of each potential victim. Finding a cure for heart disease, although it might save far more lives, would probably add only another 5 to 10 years to the life of its average victim.
The assessment of the seriousness of a risk changes, depending upon whether we ask how many lives it claims or how many YPLLs it involves. Some of the differences are quite striking. For instance, accidental deaths appear relatively insignificant compared to cancer and heart disease when we just count the deaths caused. But once we look at the number of lost years, accidents loom into first place among the killers of Americans. These data show that we need to ask not only how large a risk is but also when it becomes payable. Other things being equal, the sooner a risk causes damage or death, the more that risk is to be avoided.
Phrases and Expressions
bear in mind
remember to consider 记在心里;记住
e.g. We have no vacancies now, but we'll certainly bear your application in mind.
bring something under control
make something work properly, especially after being in a dangerous or confused state 控制住
e.g. He struggled to bring his boat under control in the first race.
by virtue of
on account of or because of 由于
e.g. He got the job by virtue of being the only one to apply.
in this light
in this particular way
e.g. Viewed in this light, the problem seemed less important.
make sense
be sensible 是明智的;是合情合理的
e.g. It would make sense to leave early.
show up
be easily and clearly seen 显露出来
e.g. The dust on the shelf shows up in the sunlight.
strike terror or fear into people's, hearts
cause sudden, strong feelings of fear or terror
e.g. The word "cancer" still strikes terror into many hearts.
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