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巴菲特退出了，你呢?
What If You Ignore Warren On China?
Not everybody's ready to take Warren Buffett's lead in -- or rather out of
-- China.
“股神”巴菲特(Warren Buffett)卖出中国股票的做法显然并未博得所有人的认同。
Buffett, who has now famously exited an incredibly profitable investment in
PetroChina (ticker: 0857.HK), last week told reporters in China that investors
in that country should be proceeding with caution.
前不久，巴菲特将仍有很大获利后劲的中石油(PetroChina.)股票脱手的举动引起外界的极大关注。上周他在中国对媒体表示，投资中国股票的人应保持谨慎。
But to some, caution and exit are very different things. And though these
strategists and portfolio managers say they wouldn't be surprised by more
volatility -- they aren'tready to stop investing in Chinese companies.
不过对某些人来说，谨慎和退出完全是两码事。而且虽然这些策略师和投资组合经理说，他们对中国市场波动性加大不会感到意外，但他们并不打算停止买进中国公司的股票。
Certainly there is cause for caution. The bubble analogies were neatly
detailed in Barron's two weeks ago ('How High Can China Fly?' Oct. 15): Chinese
companies are racing to the top of the world's market capitalization rankings --
a phenomenon seen in both Japanese and tech stocks before those bubbles burst.
Valuations are stratospheric, and investors are so desperate to get a piece of
the action that initial public offerings are reaping triple-digit one-day
gains.
人们当然有理由保持谨慎。两周前《巴伦周刊》曾详细分析中国股市的泡沫问题，文章指出，中国上市公司的市值正在不断冲击全球排名榜，这一现象人们在二十年前的日本股灾和几年前的互联网泡沫破灭之前都曾见到过。那时候，股票估值高歌猛进，投资者不顾一切地争抢股票，导致IPO股票一上市就能获得高达三位数的涨幅。
It's worth noting the Shanghai Composite is down nearly 9% from the record
high it reached in mid-October, and barely in positive territory for the
month.
值得注意的一点是，上证综合指数目前较其本月中旬创下的纪录高点下跌近9%，全月截至目前累计几乎没有上涨。
But there's a notable crowd for whom it is still too early to take the
money and run. Their main rationale is simple: momentum is on the side of
buyers, and there's little reason to expect that to change.
但还是有不少人认为，现在就套现离场还为时太早。他们的主要理由很简单：现在的市场动量掌握在买家这边，而且没什么理由让人们预计这一点会改变。
'In our investment process we look for attractive valuations but also good
earnings momentum and price momentum. We'd prefer cheaper valuations but don't
want to ignore the momentum factors,' said Brad Aham, who heads the active
emerging-markets equity team at State Street Global Advisors in Boston. He
manages the SSgA Emerging Markets mutual fund (SSEMX), which counts China Mobile
(CHL) among its biggest holdings, and overall has about a 15% weighting in
China.
道富环球投资管理(State Street Global Advisors)驻波士顿新兴市场证券部门负责人布拉德•埃赫姆(Brad
Aham)说，我们在投资过程中会寻找估值有吸引力的股票，但同时也要看收益增长和股价上涨方面的动量。我们最喜欢估值便宜的股票，但也不想忽视动量因素。他负责管理SSgA新兴市场共同基金，该基金中目前持股量最大的是中国移动(China
Mobile)，中国概念股合计占该基金15%的权重。
Others agree. 'It brings us back to that fundamental one-sentence issue...'
says Paul Schulte, chief regional-equity strategist at Lehman Bros. in Hong
Kong: '... Are you telling me to break my momentum trade here, and if you are,
you better have a good reason.' Schulte can't think of a good reason yet.
广告雷曼兄弟(Lehman Bros)驻香港区域首席证券策略师保罗•肖特(Paul
Schulte)同意他的观点，他说，让我们回到那个用一句话概括的基本问题吧……你是让我现在打断我的动量交易吗?那你最好拿出理由来。肖特现在还想不出一个好理由。
It's not just a matter of playing the momentum, though. There are also
plenty of smart investments left to make in China. And for U.S. investors, many
of those might be closer than you think. U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies
offer some pretty compelling opportunities, says Roger Groebli, head of Asian
equity research at ABN Amro Private Banking. (For more on the China-U.S.
disparity, see story on page 24.)
不过，事情并不只是追求动量的问题。中国还有大量可以考虑的明智的投资对象。而且，对美国人来说，其中的许多投资对象可能比想象中要近得多。荷兰银行(ABN
Amro)私人银行分部亚洲证券研究部负责人罗杰•格罗伯力(Roger Groebli)说，在美国上市的中国股票提供了一些相当有吸引力的机会。
One sector that analysts at ABN Amro like is Chinese solar power, which is
riding both a global trend toward renewable energy and moves being made by the
Chinese government itself. Two stocks Groebli cites in particular, Suntech Power
Holdings (STP) and Trina Solar (TSL).
荷兰银行的分析师看好中国的太阳能行业，该领域受益于全球推广可再生能源的趋势，而且中国政府自己在这方面也在采取措施。格罗伯力特别提到了这个行业中的尚德太阳能电力公司(Suntech
Power Holdings.)和天合光能(Trina Solar)。
Groebli notes that investors who stick only to Chinese stocks listed in the
U.S. are going to have to stomach some volatility. The stocks are generally
smaller and more technology-oriented than the giant Chinese blue chips listed in
Hong Kong. (Witness the 10% one-day drop in shares of Baidu.com this month.)
格罗伯力指出，那些专注于在美上市中国股票的投资者将不得不忍受一定的波动。与在香港上市的中国内地蓝筹股相比，这些股票通常规模较小，且多为科技股。比如这个月百度(Baidu.com)的股票曾出现单日下跌10%的情况。
But Groebli also notes that buying US-listed Chinese stocks carries some
unique benefits as well. A key one is that U.S.-listed companies that do most or
all of their business in China will benefit as the renminbi, or RMB,
appreciates. It's a simple concept, but given expectations for the Chinese
currency, a potentially powerful one.
不过格罗伯力也指出，投资在美上市中国股票也有一些独一无二的好处。其中关键的一点是，这些大部分乃至全部业务都在中国的公司将因人民币升值而受益。这是一种比较简单的想法，但它考虑到了人们对人民币有可能成为强势货币的预期。
Mark Williams, Asia economist at Capital Economics in London, expects the
government to let the RMB appreciate against the dollar by 10% annually in the
next two years -- because it's an important step toward tackling inflation and a
host of other domestic issues. That's not to say that western governments aren't
screaming for it.
伦敦Capital Economics亚洲经济学家马克•威廉姆斯(Mark
Williams)预计，未来两年中国政府将允许人民币每年再升值10%，因为这是解决通货膨胀问题和其他一系列国内问题的重要途径之一。当然，西方国家也会强烈要求中国政府这么做。
Groebli also points out that U.S. listings come with another benefit that
can help investors deal with their volatility -- a far deeper and more active
options market than is available in Hong Kong. Still, Groebli and others note
that these perks are just that -- perks, and not necessarily a reason to go snap
up a Chinese stock.
格罗伯力还指出了在美上市中国股票的另一个优点，那就是美国股市比香港股市更有深度且有更灵活的选择，这有助于应对这些股票的波动性。不过格罗伯力和其他人士都表示，这些优点也只是优点，它未必能成为你积极买进中国股票的充分理由。
And it doesn't mean that there aren't some serious risks. One key hazard,
says Lehman's Schulte, is fraud. 'The thing that can fundamentally alter an
otherwise terrific story is fraud,' Schulte says.
而且它也不意味着就没有重大风险。雷曼兄弟的肖特说，一个关键的不利因素是弄虚作假。他说，能从根本上让一只好股票面目全非的就是弄虚作假。
Such allegations are already hurting investors in Chinese solar-power
company LDK Solar (LDK). The stock is down about 50% this month amid allegations
(see Barron's, Oct. 8) of trouble with inventory reporting -- something the
company has denied.
最近中国太阳能企业赛维LDK(LDK
Solar)发生的风波就是一个例子。因被指涉嫌虚报库存，该公司股价本月下跌了大约50%。该公司自己否认有虚报行为 |
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发表于 2016-7-10 09:22:58