|
|
Asia Keeps Pressuring Oil Prices亚洲持续给油价加压
Asia's fast-growing economies have made some progress in addressing their
seemingly insatiable demand for oil, but they continue to fall far short of the
cuts needed to significantly reduce pressure on global supplies.
高速发展的亚洲经济体对原油的需求似乎永无止境。虽然它们在抑制原油需求方面已取得了一些进展，但要显著降低对全球原油供应的压力，它们所做的努力还远远不够。
Galloping growth in Asia, led by China, was one of the key reasons why
global oil prices started shooting up in 2004. China's economy was racing ahead
after years of relative global insignificance, ignited by a spurt in new
industrial output and a wave of domestic consumption of items, from cars to air
conditioners, that pushed energy demand dramatically higher.
亚洲经济在中国引领下的迅猛增长是2004年油价开始上涨的主要原因之一。在此之前，中国经济在世界上处于相对“无足轻重”的地位，但随着工业产值的增加以及从汽车到空调等商品的国内消费量大幅增长，能源需求激增，中国经济也开始快速发展。
Since then, governments in the region have initiated projects to cut back
on oil consumption, including boosting factory efficiency, conserving
electricity in stores and government offices, and expanding the use of
alternative fuels such as ethanol.
自此之后，亚洲各国政府已启动了多项计划以减少原油消耗，包括提高工厂的能源使用效率，在商店和政府办公室开展节电行动，以及扩大乙醇等替代燃料的使用等。
But many of the efforts have been thwarted by faster-than-expected growth
and by the reluctance of governments to take unpopular steps to push up the cost
of using fuel and rein in demand. Moreover, much of Asia's oil demand is driven
by transportation needs, making it difficult to alleviate with alternatives such
as coal or nuclear power.
但是，由于经济增长超出预期速度，政府又不愿采取不受欢迎的措施来抬高油价进而抑制需求，所以很多努力都未能达到预期效果。不仅如此，亚洲原油需求的很大一部分来自运输业，很难以煤炭或核电作为替代能源来缓解这一领域的用油压力。
Asian demand for oil is on track to hit 25 million barrels a day this year,
an increase of 2.5% from last year, according to the International Energy Agency
in Paris. World demand is set to rise a more modest 1.5% and may even decline in
Europe. (The U.S. -- which is on pace to consume 20.9 million barrels a day this
year, up less than 1% from last year -- remains the world's single largest
consumer.)
总部位于巴黎的国际能源署(International Energy
Agency)称，今年亚洲每日原油需求将很可能达到2,500万桶，较去年增长2.5%。而全球的原油需求增长预计会较为温和，只有1.5%，欧洲的原油需求甚至可能会下降。(今年美国的每日原油需求很可能达到2,090万桶，较去年增长不到1%，但该国仍将是世界第一大原油消费国。)
Crude futures fell $1.04 a barrel, or 1.2%, to $87.56 yesterday on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. Oil is up 43% so far this year.
美国商品交易所原油期货价格周一每桶跌1.04美元，至87.56美元，跌幅1.2%。截至目前，油价已较年初上涨了43%。
Several countries, including China and India, continue to subsidize
consumer fuel costs and in some cases have cut gas-station prices this year as
oil prices have surged. Such moves help shield everyday users from the swings of
global oil markets but also discourage them from cutting back when global prices
rise.
随着油价的上涨，包括中国和印度在内的一些国家今年继续实施消费者燃油补贴，在有些情况下甚至下调了汽油零售价。这些举措使普通消费者得以免受全球原油市场动荡的影响，但同时也使他们在目前全球油价上涨之际不再努力降低油耗。
The recent decline in the value of the U.S. dollar -- and parallel rise in
the value of some Asian currencies -- has also given Asian consumers more power
to spend liberally on fuels, because oil is typically priced in dollars and
therefore cheaper to buy.
最近美元汇率下跌，而一些亚洲货币又在升值，这也使亚洲消费者消耗燃油时更加无所顾忌。因为石油通常以美元定价，所以现在购买石油更便宜了。
Distorting factors like energy-price subsidies 'have not been conducive to
the kind of energy-efficiency improvements that would have been warranted by the
run-up in oil prices since the Iraq war,' says Ifzal Ali, chief economist of the
Asian Development Bank in Manila. As a result, 'we have not seen a slowdown in
the appetite for energy from improved energy efficiencies.'
亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)首席经济学家艾弗兹•阿里(Ifzal
Ali)在马尼拉说，正是由于实施了能源价格补贴等干预措施，伊拉克战争以来的油价飙升未能完全起到提高能源使用效率的作用。其结果是，一直未能出现能源利用率提高导致能源需求增速放缓的局面。
Asian governments are also becoming more ambivalent about crop-based
alternative fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel, which are made with
agricultural commodities, including corn and palm oil. Prices for such crops
have soared in recent years, and many governments no longer want to promote
fuels that use agricultural commodities because they fear it will cause broader
food-price inflation and harm low-income consumers.
亚洲国家政府对用农作物制成替代燃料的态度也开始发生动摇。这些替代燃料用玉米和棕榈油等农产品制成，包括乙醇和生物柴油等。近年来，此类农作物的价格高涨，很多国家政府不想继续推广用农产品制成的燃料，因为它们担心这可能会造成更大范围的食品价格上涨，从而损害低收入消费者的利益。
Officials in China and elsewhere remain keenly aware of the dangers that
high oil prices pose to their economies. Asia must burn more fuel to generate
economic growth than the West, primarily because it is more reliant on
energy-intensive industries like heavy manufacturing than other parts of the
world.
中国和其他国家政府仍然高度关注高油价可能对经济造成的危害。亚洲需要比西方国家消耗更多的燃料来推动经济增长，这主要是因为亚洲比世界其他地区更加依赖重工业等高耗能产业。
But Asia held up well when oil prices first jumped in 2004, and many Asian
governments, including China, have huge cash reserves on hand to bail out their
economies if oil prices keep climbing. The Asian Development Bank recently
raised its estimates for 2007 growth in Asia excluding Japan to 8.3% from 7.6%
in an earlier forecast.
但是亚洲在2004年油价首次上涨时并未被击倒。包括中国政府在内的很多亚洲国家政府手上都有大量现金储备，可以在油价持续攀升时帮助本国经济摆脱困境。亚洲开发银行最近将2007年日本以外亚洲国家的经济增长预测值提高到了8.3%，而之前的预测值为7.6%。
Such success may have bred complacency. In Thailand, officials have long
since abandoned a string of energy-conservation measures announced in 2004 that
called for department stores and gas stations to close earlier to cut
electricity usage, among other things.
这样的成绩可能已经酝酿了骄傲自满的情绪。在泰国，政府早已放弃2004年发布的一系列节能措施，包括号召百货商店和加油站提前打烊，以减少耗电等等。
Meanwhile, a nationwide effort to boost production of ethanol from domestic
crops has fallen far short of expectations, in part because the Thai government
backtracked on a plan to replace some regular gasoline with a blend that uses
ethanol. Officials said they reconsidered the plan after determining that many
of the country's older cars aren't equipped to use ethanol-blended gasoline.
与此同时，全国范围内促进用国产农作物制造乙醇的力度远不及预期，部分原因是泰国政府取消了一项旨在用掺入乙醇的汽油代替部分普通汽油的计划。政府表示，因为很多老款汽车无法使用掺入乙醇的汽油，所以需要重新审议这项计划。
The move infuriated ethanol producers, who had expanded production in
anticipation of the policy change and are now left with a supply glut.
此举使乙醇生产商大为光火。他们曾对政策变化满怀期望，扩大了生产规模，可是现在却造成了积压。
In China, the government and private sector have started initiatives to
trim oil demand, including a doubling in the country's wind-power capacity last
year. Some Chinese provinces imposed mandatory use of ethanol to fuel vehicles,
and the government has approved a plan to increase renewable energy to a larger
percentage of the country's overall energy use.
在中国，政府和私人企业已开始主动减少原油需求，例如中国的风力发电能力去年提高了一倍。中国一些省份强制使用乙醇作为汽车燃料。政府也已批准了一项计划，以扩大可再生能源在总体能源消耗中的比例。
The government has also unveiled a number of energy-efficiency plans,
including setting new emissions standards and incentives for factories that
achieve efficiency targets. Overall, the Chinese government aims to cut energy
consumption per unit of gross domestic product by 20% by 2010.
政府还发布了一系列节能计划，包括制定新的排放标准，对实现节能目标的工厂进行奖励等。总的来说，中国政府力争到2010年将单位GDP能耗降低20%。
The efforts have yielded some gains, but not enough yet to fundamentally
alter China's energy equation. Energy use per unit of GDP declined about 1.3% in
2006, according to government records, reversing an earlier trend of worsening
energy efficiency. But the improvement was well below the government's target of
4% for the year, and many analysts remain skeptical the longer-term targets will
be met.
这些努力已收到一些成效，但还不足以从根本上改变中国的能源供求关系。政府纪录显示，2006年单位GDP能耗下降约1.3%，扭转了之前能源使用效率不断降低的趋势。但与政府去年单位GDP能耗要降低4%的目标相比，还差得很远。很多分析人士对长期目标是否能实现仍持怀疑态度。
Crude-oil demand growth in China has cooled some, too, but not
dramatically. In the past three years, crude-oil demand grew an average of about
9% a year, according to the IEA. This year, the IEA says China's oil demand is
on target to grow a still-strong 6% to about 7.6 million barrels of oil a day,
followed by similar growth next year. But China's economy continues to grow
faster than expected. GDP growth is now estimated to be on track to surpass 11%
this year.
中国的原油需求增长也有所降温，但并不显著。国际能源署表示，过去3年中，原油需求年平均增长9%左右。国际能源署称，今年中国的原油需求预计仍将强劲增长，至每日
760万桶，增幅6%;明年的增长率大抵相同。但中国的经济继续以高于预期的速度在增长。今年的GDP增长率估计将超过11%。
'A lot of the positive things that the government is doing are overwhelmed
by the forces' of rapid growth around them, says Jonathan Sinton, a China expert
at the IEA.
国际能源署中国事务专家乔纳森•辛顿( Jonathan Sinton)说，政府采取的很多积极措施都无力与经济的飞速发展势头相抗衡。
More broadly, the Chinese government continues to promote the kind of
economic development that is likely to keep oil consumption growing rapidly for
at least the next several years. This includes massive outlays for highways and
new factories. It also includes efforts by the government to encourage the
development of a large domestic car industry.
从更宏观的角度看，中国政府继续推广的经济发展模式很可能至少在未来几年中仍将使中国的原油消耗保持快速增长。这包括大规模建造高速公路和工厂，以及鼓励国内轿车工业的大发展等。 |
|
发表于 2016-7-10 09:22:57