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China's economic policy-makers meet towards the end of every year to establish a broad agenda for the coming 12 months. Yet this year's conference, which begins today, is likely to focus on specific policy measures.
每到年底，中国的经济政策制定者就会召开会议，为来年的工作制订总体日程。但将于今日开始的本年度会议，可能会将重点放在具体的政策举措方面。
When the Chinese government launched a fiscal stimulus package a month ago, it was more a statement of intent than a battle plan. Officials wanted to send a signal that they were taking action.
中国政府一个月前出台了一揽子财政刺激方案，当时与其说那是一份实战计划，不如说是一项意向声明。官员们希望释放出一个信号：他们在采取行动。
The “central economic work conference”, as the meeting is known, will give leaders a chance to refine and potentially expand spending plans for the next two years. The government has indicated it will introduce measures to boost consumption.
该会议名为“中央经济工作会议”，领导人可能借此改进并扩大未来两年的支出计划。中国政府已表示，将出台刺激消费的措施。
The initial announcement of the fiscal stimulus was rushed out, officials have acknowledged, because growth in the economy was slowing rapidly. And since the first announcement, the economy appears to have deteriorated further, including a drop in car sales and electricity production in November and reports that exports had decreased for the first time in nearly a decade.
官员们已承认，最初宣布的财政刺激方案是仓促出台的，因为当时经济增长正迅速放缓。此后，经济似乎进一步恶化：11月份汽车销售和发电量双双下降;同时有报道称，出口近10年来首次出现下降。
“Our economy is at a historically significant juncture. In the short term, there is a risk of a fast decline in economic growth,” the State Information Centre, a think tank under the main economic planning body, the National Development Reform Commission (NDRC), said in a research note.
国家发改委(NDRC)下属的智囊机构――国家信息中心(SIC)在一份研究报告中称：“中国经济正处于历史紧要关头。在短期内，经济增长有快速下滑的风险。”
One of the main criticisms about the fiscal stimulus plan is it focuses too heavily on infrastructure. According to the commission, about 80 per cent of the Rmb4,000bn ($581.8bn) investment over two years will be in roads and railways.
对于政府的财政刺激方案，人们批评的重点之一是该方案过度侧重于基础设施。发改委表示，未来两年的4万亿元人民币投资计划中，约80%将投资于公路和铁路。
Ha Jiming, economist at China International Capital Corporation, an investment bank, said that infrastructure spending would not have as big an impact as it did after the 1997 Asian financial crisis because facilities were much better developed than a decade ago and state-owned companies were no longer such an important part of the economy,
投资银行中金公司(CICC)的经济学家哈继铭表示，基础设施投资产生的影响，不会像1997年亚洲金融危机后那样大，因为目前设施状况比10年前强得多，同时国有企业在经济中的地位也没有那时候那么重要。
If not carefully controlled, economists warned, infrastructure spending could also stimulate even more investment in the manufacturing sectors which are suffering from over-capacity, such as steel.
经济学家警告称，如不加以谨慎控制，基础设施支出也可能在产能过剩的制造业领域刺激出更多的投资，如钢铁行业。 |
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发表于 2016-7-10 09:22:40