油价涨势显现放缓迹象

英语自学网

　　油价涨势显现放缓迹象
　　The big oil-price surge of 2007 may not be over yet, but signs are emerging of a significant cooling that could put the $100-a-barrel benchmark out of reach for the near term.
　　For industrialized countries skittish over soaring crude prices, much of the news this week has been good. There are signs of ebbing oil demand in the U.S. and Russia. The dollar has strengthened slightly. Daily output in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Angola is up.
　　Just as important, perhaps, are the soothing noises here from the de facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Ali Naimi.
　　In remarks to reporters Tuesday, Mr. Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, said the world's economy 'is resilient and continues to be resilient' and that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil supplier, didn't foresee a recession in the U.S., the largest oil consumer.
　　Mr. Naimi also argued strenuously against 'the pessimists' that he says have been driving up prices by predicting impending supply shortages and soaring demand. 'The price today has really no reflection whatsoever with the fundamentals' of supply and demand, he said, repeating a frequent lament from other OPEC ministers lately that prices have soared solely because of the falling dollar, geopolitical jitters and market speculation.
　　After hitting an intraday high of over $98 a barrel last week, U.S. benchmark crude has since slid, falling 2.4% Tuesday to $92.33 as of late morning on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It remains below the inflation-adjusted high of $101.70 reached in April 1980.
　　The International Energy Agency helped buttress the case that some corners of the world market aren't hungering for more oil. In a monthly report, the industrialized world's energy watchdog said it was lowering its prediction for global demand for the fourth quarter by 500,000 barrels a day, thanks mainly to signs of weakening demand in the U.S. and the former Soviet states.
　　The IEA added that world oil supply rose in October by 1.4 million barrels a day. One surprise performer was Iraq, where output from its northern fields is expected this month to top 600,000 barrels a day, setting a record since a U.S.-led coalition invaded Iraq in early 2003. The IEA also cited increased production from Angola, a new OPEC member that is also emerging as an important supplier of crude to the U.S.
　　OPEC countries supply around 40% of the world's oil demand, which now runs at just over 85 million barrels a day.
　　Demand for oil has continued to climb in much of the world despite soaring prices. But the IEA said 'strong indications' are emerging that 'high prices are depressing demand' in industrialized countries.
　　Some oil analysts cited the IEA data as evidence that prices may now be on a downward slope. A report from Lehman Brothers said various factors, including softer demand and a boost in OPEC supply, could mean the market has hit a 'turning point away from the recent near-$100 highs.'
　　Mr. Naimi has left open the possibility in recent days that OPEC may decide to raise its output ceiling next month, when ministers meet formally to discuss policy. But he ruled out any such discussion this week, as OPEC heads of state gather here for a rare top-level, but largely formal, summit that is supposed to include Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.
　　Saudi Arabia is keen to use the media spotlight this week to drive home the point that it has plenty of oil to go around, and that its supplies aren't dwindling, as some analysts have argued in recent years. The country's national oil company, Aramco, has sponsored media tours to its headquarters in Dhahran, to a huge new petrochemical complex along the Red Sea, and to one of its longstanding oil fields, which the company is now looking to expand.
　　As by far OPEC's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia has about 11.3 million barrels a day in capacity. Mr. Naimi said that despite rising production costs, the country was on schedule to boost capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009.
　　Mr. Naimi grinned when asked if he saw a competitive threat from countries like Canada, which has begun to extract oil from its so-called tar sands in the wilds of Alberta. 'I am not aware of any more lucrative acreage than Saudi Arabia,' he said.
　　
　　2007年油价的狂飙或许还没有结束，但大幅放缓的迹象已在显现，致使短期内油价不会超过每桶100美元。
　　对因原油价格飙升而惶恐不安的工业化国家来说，本周到目前为止的消息都不错。美国和俄罗斯出现原油需求下降的迹象，美元小幅走强，沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和安哥拉的原油日产量也在上升。
　　或许同样重要的是欧佩克(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)实际领袖纳伊米(Ali Naimi)宽慰人心的“呱噪之声”。
　　沙特阿拉伯石油大臣纳伊米周二向记者表示，世界经济的复原能力很强，并将继续如此;作为世界最大的石油供应国，沙特阿拉伯没有预料到美国这个世界最大的石油消费国会出现经济衰退。
　　纳伊米还强烈驳斥了悲观主义者，称正是这些人推高了油价，因为他们预测说供应短缺和需求大幅增长即将来临。他表示，目前的价格丝毫没有反映出供需的基本面，并抱怨说油价的飙升完全是由美元下跌、紧张的地缘政治局势以及市场投机行为造成的。最近其他欧佩克成员国的石油部长也经常有类似言论。
　　美国基准原油价格上周盘中曾一度超过每桶98美元，之后就一路下滑，在纽约商品交易所周二的交易中，截至前市尾段已跌至每桶92.33美元，跌幅2.4%。现在的油价仍低于1980年4月份创下的历史高点，当时的油价经通货膨胀因素调整后目前折合每桶101.70美元。
　　国际能源署(International Energy Agency，简称IEA)的月度报告也显示有些地区的原油需求并没有增加。在这份报告中，IEA称将把第四季度全球原油日需求量的预测值下调50万桶，这主要是因为美国和俄罗斯出现了需求下降的迹象。
　　IEA 补充说，10月份世界原油供应量每日增加了140万桶。伊拉克的表现尤其出人意料，本月伊拉克北部油田的日产量预计将超过60万桶，创出自2003年初以美国为首的联军进驻伊拉克以来的新高。IEA还指出安哥拉的石油产量也上升了，该国是欧佩克的新成员，同时也正成为美国重要的原油供应国。
　　目前世界的原油日需求量略高于8,500万桶，欧佩克成员国能满足其中40%左右的需求。
　　尽管油价大幅上涨，世界很多地区的需求仍在不断攀升。但IEA指出，一系列显著的迹象表明，在工业化国家高油价对需求起了抑制作用。
　　一些石油分析人士引用IEA的数据作为证据，称目前油价可能正在下滑中。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的一份报告指出，需求下降以及欧佩克供应增加等各种因素可能意味着市场已经触到了转折点，油价正从最近接近每桶100美元的高点下滑。
　　纳伊米表示，不排除欧佩克会在下月召开的部长级正式会议上调高产量上限的可能。但他同时指出本周举行的欧佩克成员国政府首脑峰会不会对此事进行讨论。此次峰会虽然参加的高层领导不多，但相当正式，伊朗总统艾哈迈迪-内贾德(Mahmoud Ahmadinejad)和委内瑞拉总统查维兹(Hugo Chavez)都计划与会。
　　沙特阿拉伯热衷于利用本周的媒体报导来向世界证明该国有丰富的原油储量，供应量也没有缩减──不像近年来一些分析人士说的那样。该国的国有石油公司沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)邀请各大媒体参观了公司在达兰的总部、在红海沿岸一个巨大的新建石油化工设施，以及该公司目前正计划扩建的一个老油田。
　　作为目前欧佩克中最大的石油生产国，沙特阿拉伯的每日产能约为1,130万桶。纳伊米说，尽管生产成本不断上升，该国仍将按计划在2009年前把产能提高到每日1,250万桶。
　　当被问及是否感觉到来自加拿大等国的竞争时，纳伊米咧嘴笑着说，他还没发现比沙特阿拉伯更赚钱的油田。加拿大目前已开始在阿尔伯塔省荒野中所谓的油砂中提取石油。