叙利亚谈判破裂，国内冲突继续(2/2)

英语自学网

俄美外长在日内瓦举行的叙利亚问题谈判上仍未取得进展，这预示叙利亚国内的混乱冲突短时间内无法终结。
        Hints:
Maplecroft
Anthony Skinner
Skype
Iran
Syria/Syrian
Tehran
Damascus
Chris Doyle
校对：Ranzzy
翻译&注解：熔雪gemini
组长：蓝色三叶草
答疑：betty0925
点评：MEAT肉肉
口语节目地址： http://bulo.hujiang.com/menu/11921/item/720539/

From the Maplecroft consulting firm, analyst Anthony Skinner says via Skype that's why Russia's more willing to deal with the Syrian opposition.
"Russia is hedging its bets. It hasn't fundamentally changed its position, but it's trying to establish a greater channel of communication and develop relations with the opposition."
But Skinner says the situation is quite different for Syria's other main foreign supporter, Iran.
"The relationship between Tehran and Damascus is so fundamental to the regime in Iran in terms of its own agenda domestically and also in the region at large, that it would not make sense for it to engage in a massive reversal."
The experts do not see any dramatic change in the Syrian deadlock any time soon. But Chris Doyle puts some of the onus on the opposition and the West.
"We need a transition process. If it means that the president has to be there, even as a symbolic figure, for some months before he's ushered out, maybe that is something that parties need to consider in order to find a way out."
Doyle says without some sort of dramatic change on one side or both, the fighting could drag on indefinitely, and there may be little left of Syria for whoever wins.梅普尔克罗夫特咨询公司的分析人员安东尼·斯金纳通过Skype说这就是俄方更愿意与叙利亚反对派打交道的原因。
他说：“俄方是在两面下注。它并没有完全改变立场，但是它在尝试建立更广泛的沟通渠道，并发展与反对派的关系。”
但是斯金纳还说对于叙利亚的另一个主要国际支持者伊朗而言，情况则大有不同。
他接着说：“德黑兰和大马士革（喻指伊朗和叙利亚）之间的关系对于伊朗政权来说至关重要，不管是对其国内事务还是整个国家来说。而且让伊朗参与叙利亚的政权变更是毫无道理的。”
专业人士分析在短期内叙利亚问题的僵局不会产生任何大的变化。但是杜可风认为问题的责任在于叙利亚反对派和西方国家。
他说：“我们需要的是一个过渡时期。如果这意味着总统必须在位，即使是虚在其位，执政数月然后下台，也许这正是所有党派需要考量的事，如果他们真想解决问题的话。”
杜可风说如果单方或双方都没有大的动静，这场战争会无休止地持续下去。不管最后哪方胜出，叙利亚都会遭受巨大的打击。