视点——神探夏洛克，推理也迷人

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概述：夏洛克·福尔摩斯虽然只是柯南·道尔笔下的虚构人物，却具有真实人物难以匹敌的吸引力和生命力。
Hints：
Sherlock Holmes
Sign of Four
Conan Doyle
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翻译：baizhixian
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口语节目地址：http://bulo.hujiang.com/menu/2120/item/664265/At the same time, Sherlock Holmes - a symbol of the power of intellect, if ever there was one - is as powerful a presence in our imagination as he's ever been. It's a contradiction worth exploring.
It's not the science of deduction that gives Holmes his power over us, since he doesn't in fact use it. In the Sign of Four, Holmes declares, "I never guess. It is a shocking habit - destructive to the logical faculty." Yet the type of reasoning which Holmes uses in most of Conan Doyle's stories includes a good deal of guesswork.
We tend to think there are two types of reasoning: deduction, where we move with logical certainty from general principles to a particular conclusion, as in "all swans are white, this is a swan, so this must be white"; and induction, where we move from particular observations to general principles, as in "all the swans that have ever been seen are white, so all swans are white".
Deduction is infallible as long as the premises are true, while induction yields probabilities that can always be overturned by events - the black swans that turn up when no one is expecting them.与此同时，夏洛克•福尔摩斯(Sherlock Holmes)——就像一种智力力量的象征，如果确实存在的话——如同他一如既往的那样，保有鲜活的风采。它是一种值得探索的矛盾体。
并不是演绎法赋予福尔摩斯胜于常人的力量，因为实际上他并不使用演绎法。在《四签名》中，福尔摩斯声称，“我从不猜测。猜测是一种坏习惯——它不利于逻辑推理能力。”然而在绝大多数柯南道尔的小说中，福尔摩斯使用的推理包括很多种猜测。
我们倾向于认为有两种推理：演绎法，即从普遍原理推导出个别结论，具有逻辑必然性，比如“所有的天鹅都是白色的，这是一只天鹅，所以它必须是白色的”；和归纳法，即从个别现象推导出普遍结论，比如“所有被发现的天鹅都是白色的，所以所有天鹅都是白色的”。
只要前提是真实的，那么演绎法就是万无一失的，而归纳法推出的结论则总有可能被事件推翻，比如没有人会想到黑天鹅的出现。