货运——国民经济的晴雨表(2/2)

英语自学网

概述：货运量是衡量一国经济状况的重要标杆，但是它并非总是准确。经济学家发现利用货运量得出的预测与实际情况仍有不同。
Hints
Perry Flint
International Air Transport Association
Cambria Suites Hotels
Michael Murphy
文中两处破折号“ -- ”
校对：ethanfromsh
翻译&注释：steelver
组长：Olive_M
答疑：steelverPerry Flint speaks with the International Air Transport Association. "It can also, as you start to see air cargo dropping off and you are seeing other signs -- it can also be a leading indicator of a downturn."
However, the same report shows that passenger traffic made gains during the same period.
That may be why a top official of Cambria Suites Hotels, Michael Murphy, says business is strong.
"We are seeing the highest demand in the history of the hotel industry right now. More people are traveling than ever before, that's in all segments of travel."
The contradictory indicators are one reason that predicting the economic future is a complex and difficult task.
For example, government experts first said the U.S. economy expanded at a 1.5% annual rate during April, May, and June. Then they made a revision -- as new information became available and showed growth was more likely at a 1.7% rate.
Trying to figure out what to do about the sluggish economic recovery is even more complicated.派瑞•弗林特向美国航空运输协会表示，“正如你开始看到的，空运货物减少，以及你现在看到的其他征兆，都可以看做是领先指标的下降。”
然而，同一份报告则显示客运在同一时期获得盈利。
那可能是坎布里亚套房酒店的高级官员，迈克尔•墨菲说商业强大的原因。
“我们现在正目睹酒店产业史上最旺盛的需求。越来越多的人出门旅行，比以往任何时候都多，而且遍及旅游的各个部门。”
相反的指标是一个原因：预测未来经济是个复杂又艰难的任务。
例如，政府专家一开始说美国经济在四月、五月、六月期间以1.5%的年平均增长率增长。接着，随着新信息的可用，他们作了修正，显示增长更可能是1.7%的速率。
试图想出能为缓慢的经济复苏做什么（比想象中）更复杂。