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专家谈论去年商品价格变动的实际意义。
HINTS:
Jeffrey Currie
Iranian
Goldman Sachs
Libya
1.专家讲话有两处时态语法错误请照写。
2.全文有一处连字符。
主持:dramatic150
校对 : cryforwhat
翻译:cjsfight
答疑:liuczhiCommodities are the lifeblood of the global economy, building blocks such as oil and iron ore and copper and corn and wheat. The prices of these commodities is hugely significant. High prices of oil and food can cause economic distress and hunger. But then low prices can damage the developing nations which mostly produce them. Last year, the price of commodities seesawed violently, and some of the financial investors who're dealing them made substantial losses. Of course there's been controversy too about whether these investors distort these markets unfairly. But what's gonna happen to prices this year given the crisis in the eurozone and concern about the effects of an embargo on Iranian oil. I've been getting the latest intelligence from one of the world's most influential commodities experts, Jeffrey Currie, the global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, a man who has moved the financial markets with his predictions. In a rare interview with him, I asked him whether the big shifts in commodity prices we saw in 2011 were about changes in supply and demand or about other factors.
"They were definitely about supply and demand. We've got to realise that their rise in prices was generated by a loss of a very large oil producer in the farm of Libya. The supply shock was real. It was significant, and may not only impacted oil supplies and increased oil prices but it also impacted economic activity and created a very classic supply-side shock type of environment within the financial community last year."商品就好像全球经济的生命线——石油,铁矿石,铜,玉米和小麦,这些商品就是维持生命的关键。这些商品的价格极端重要。石油和食品的高价会导致经济萧条和饥荒。但是低价会对大部分生产这些产品的发展中国家造成伤害。去年,商品价格跌宕起伏。交易这些产品的一些金融投资商们损失惨重。当然,也有争议说这些投资商们采取不正当手段扭曲了市场。但是放眼今年,考虑到欧元区危机和对伊朗石油禁运影响的担忧,价格的走势将会如何呢?我从世界上最具影响力的商品专家之一,高盛商品研究全球主管杰弗里·科里这里得到了最新的消息。他曾通过预言变动了金融市场。在一次难得的采访中,我问到我们在2011年所看到的商品价格大幅变化是由于供求关系的变化还是别的因素。
“去年的商品价格变化显然是与供求关系有关。我们必须意识到商品价格上涨是由利比亚油田一个很大的石油生产商的损失引起的。供给震荡是真实的。这件事很重要,它不仅冲击了石油供给,哄抬了石油价格,还影响了经济活动,因此去年在金融界产生了一种供给冲击的典型环境。” |
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