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It has become common sense to say that "expanding domestic consumption" is
the best way China can take to stave off the impact of the global economic
recession. Governments at various levels have all drafted plans to invest money
in projects to stimulate consumption. The problem is, what kind of consumption
will it be?
It seems many localities are eyeing the automobile market as the main
target in their attempt to direct the consumption trend. Take the latest
example. Shandong provincial price regulatory authorities recently announced
measures to create a more friendly atmosphere for car owners, such as cutting
vehicle purchase tax and other administrative fees, charging less on parking,
reducing or canceling road tolls, lowering driving lesson fees, and so on.
Economic analysts also urged local governments to make the automobile
industry the focus in their effort to stimulate production and consumption, for
example, drafting more favorable policies to encourage production and owning of
cars. In other words, more public money will be invested in that field.
The automobile industry is certainly an important pillar of the national
economy. But it is not, and should not be, the focus of our current attempt to
boost domestic markets. I say so for two reasons.
First, China's automobile market needs no stimulation for continual growth.
It has never ceased growing since there began to be private car owners in
considerable numbers about a decade ago. The current sluggishness in car markets
in a number of cities is not a sudden slump in sales but rather a regular,
seasonal fall that is seen every year. The latest statistics indicate that
automobile production and sales grew 16.71 percent and 18.52 percent
year-on-year respectively in the first half of the year. An expert with the
China Automobile Industry Association said that although the growth may slow
down in the second half, the annual growth rates could still be in two digits.
Note that the growth was on the basis of an annual sale of 8.8 million vehicles
last year.
Second, car ownership should not be encouraged deliberately. Given the
large population and intensifying urbanization, air pollution and road
congestion are already serious enough. Reducing energy consumption, especially
fossil fuel, was included in the State strategy of "sustainable development"
formulated a few years ago. How can we forget our pledge so soon? Car ownership
can be left to natural growth. There is no need to take deliberate steps to
boost it.
Actually there is something more important for us to promote in our current
campaign to boost domestic consumption. That is consumption in rural areas.
Rural residents make up the majority of China's population. If their will,
and ability, to buy is really activated, the market is incredibly large and
rural consumption will become a permanently powerful engine to propel China's
economic growth.
We know that Chinese farmers have become much better off, on average, than
in previous years. Almost every rural family has one or two or even more members
working in cities as migrant workers, who bring their earnings back to the
countryside in hopes to improve their living standards. They hope to own
domestic electric appliances, even personal computers. However, manufacturers of
these appliances are traditionally urban-oriented. Their products do not adapt
to rural conditions. Farmers need practical, easy-to-use and wear-resistant
appliances with fewer fancy functions. They also need to buy quality farm tools
and they hope to build new houses.
Investing money in manufacturing more rurally adaptable products and
improving commercial networks in rural areas seem to be more practical in
promoting domestic consumption. And we should also remember that there are still
many rural regions that are still struggling to get rid of poverty. Putting
public money in these regions to help eradicate poverty seems to be a more
far-sighted way to nurture potential markets than consuming money in combustion
engines.
E-mail: liushinan@hotmail.com |
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发表于 2016-7-9 23:57:00