商业组织英国经济将经历持久衰退
Report Sees Nearly 3 Million UK Jobless By 20102008年11月17日
British business groups warned the country's recession will be worse than previously expected, driving up unemployment to nearly 3 million by 2010.
Quarterly economic forecasts from both the CBI and the British Chambers of Commerce indicate the U.K. economy next year will shrink at its fastest pace since 1991, when it was last in recession.
The downturn is expected to increasingly hit the broader economy, pushing up unemployment to 2.9 million by mid-2010 from 1.8 million in September, and damping tax revenues, the groups said.
Lower tax revenue will drive the government's budget deficit above the euro-zone's ceiling of 3% of GDP, they said.
'What is clear is that the short and shallow recession we had hoped for a matter of months ago is now likely to be deeper and longer-lasting,' said John Cridland, deputy director-general of the CBI.
The closely watched Confederation of British Industry forecast gross domestic product growth will slow to 0.8% in 2008 and will contract in 2009. That's down sharply from expectations in September of 1.1% growth this year and a 0.3% expansion next year.
Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund predicted that Britain will experience the most severe contraction of any leading economy.
Over the weekend, U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown gave his strongest hint yet that the country will offer tax cuts for lower-income families as part of a planned stimulus effort to be announced next week.
'In everything we do, we will ensure we get to extend our fairness agenda in the years ahead,' Mr. Brown told journalists at the G20 group of leading economies gathered in Washington this weekend.
The U.K. Treasury is expected to outline measures to help the U.K.'s slowing economy on Nov. 24 in its pre-budget report.
This will also include bringing forward large spending projects to help stimulate demand.
With the pound falling against the major currencies, partly on investors' fears the U.K. will have to borrow billions of pounds to fund a large spending round, Mr. Brown also has said increased spending measures should only be 'temporary' to put countries back on a 'sustainable path.'
As soon as economies begin to recover, governments must move back toward stricter spending, he said after his speech.
Jeffrey Sparshott / Joe Parkinson / Alistair MacDonald
商业组织：英国经济将经历持久衰退
英
国商业组织警告称，英国经济衰退程度将较此前预期更为严重，2010年失业人数可能会飙升至近300万人。
英国工业联合会和英国商会公布的季度经济预测报告都显示，英国经济明年将出现1991年上次经济衰退以来最严重的收缩。
两大组织预计，经济下滑会越来越明显地冲击到整体经济，推动英国失业人数在2010年中达到290万人（今年9月为180万人），同时给税收带来沉重压力。
他们认为，税收减少会导致英国政府预算赤字占国内生产总值比例超过欧元区规定的3%上限。
英国工业联合会副会长克利兰德表示，几个月前我们还以为这只会是一场短暂而轻微的衰退，而现在可以清楚看出来，这很可能将是一场更严重、更持久的深度衰退。
英国工业联合会预计，今年英国GDP增速将放缓至0.8%，明年则会出现收缩。这种状况和9月份所作的预期大相径庭，当时该机构预计英国经济今明两年增速分别为1.1%和0.3%。
国际货币基金组织本月早些时候预计，英国将出现主要经济体中最为严重的经济收缩。
英国首相布朗周末给出了迄今最为强烈的暗示：在下周即将宣布的经济刺激计划中，英国将对低收入家庭实施减税。
周末在华盛顿召开的二十国集团峰会上，布朗对记者表示，在所有采取的措施中，我们将确保未来数年继续体现公平。
预计英国财政部会在11月24日的预算前报告中宣布经济刺激措施草案，以解救不断放缓的英国经济。
其中措施可能还包括为刺激内需而制定的大规模支出项目。
目前英镑兑主要货币持续走低，部分原因是投资者担心英国将被迫举债数十亿英镑用于大规模支出项目。布朗对此还表示，增加支出的措施应该只是权宜之计，意在推动英国重回可持续发展道路。
他在发言后表示，一旦经济开始复苏，政府就必须重新收紧银根。
页:
[1]