中国家电下乡
Manufacturers Pin Hopes On Rural FamiliesShi Xiaoping, who works at Xinxing Electrical Appliances store in the south-western Chinese farming town of Haiyuan, is surprisingly upbeat for someone whose job it is to sell washing machines and fridges to sugar cane farmers, many of whom have just lost half of their harvest in the worst floods in decades.
But Ms Shi, like hundreds of other retailers and electronics makers across China, is expecting to benefit from a government-backed project that aims to kick-start sales in rural areas of the country by offering television sets, washing machines, refrigerators and mobile phones at controlled prices with an additional 13 per cent rebate.
The scheme means Ms Shi can offer Panasonic washing machines for at least 25 per cent less than she did a few months ago. “Maybe this can give us better sales in an otherwise very difficult year,” she says.
The Home Appliances to the Countryside scheme – which has been running in 12 Chinese provinces since December but officially launched countrywide on February 1 – is part of Beijing's plan to fight the global recession by stimulating domestic manufacturing.
According to government figures released yesterday, more than 20m rural migrant workers in China have lost their jobs and have returned home as a result of the global economic crisis.
But while some analysts are sceptical about how much Chinese farmers can do to pull the electronics industry out of a severe global slump, big domestic electrical appliances makers are bullish.
TCL, a Chinese supplier of electrical and electronics goods, said one quarter of its production over the past month was earmarked for the home appliances programme. Changhong, an electrical appliances maker in Sichuan, estimates it can generate Rmb8bn from the programme this year – more than the Rmb7.2bn in total revenues it achieved in the third quarter last year.
Panda Electronics, which makes TVs and mobile phones, expects overall revenues to rise by at least 20 per cent this year although export orders are down 60 per cent year on year. “Home appliances to the countryside will account for at least half of domestic sales,” says one executive.
Analysts caution that while Chinese TV makers may benefit, the measures are unlikely to help other manufacturers of liquid crystal display flat panels.
The Chinese government has set a Rmb2,000 retail price ceiling for TV sets under the programme. This means that panels for larger-size flat-screen TV sets, which carry higher margins, are automatically excluded.
In the white goods segment, the programme looks set to help large Chinese manufacturers break into a market so far dominated by local niche players.
“Rural areas account for 90 per cent of our sales,” says Gu Yixin, a manager at Jiangsu Baixue, a white goods maker in eastern China.
“Originally the big brands couldn't offer prices suitable for the rural population, but now with the government subsidy, they can. This creates a bit of pressure for those like us, who have always done well in rural distribution.”
Haier, which has been seen as a possible bidder for General Electric's appliance unit, expects to create Rmb18bn, more than 50 per cent of its rural sales this year, through the programme.
Retailers warn that the expansion of the programme to ever more product categories and places has encouraged cut-throat competition.
“For us, it is very difficult to convince buyers because smaller outlets next door offer lower-quality goods at ever cheaper prices and just claim that they can also do this with the Ministry of Finance rebate,” says Wang Yi, sales manager at an electrical goods store in the rural town of Lintong, who sells fridges made by Changling, a state-owned company.
在中国西南农业小镇海渊的鑫馨电器商场工作，向蔗农销售洗衣机和电冰箱。这些农民中有许多刚刚在数十年未遇的严重洪涝灾害中损失了一半收成。但令人惊讶的是，史小萍仍然相当乐观。
和中国各地数以百计的其它零售商和电器制造商一样，史小萍期望着从一个政府资助项目中受益。该项目通过以控制价格提供电视机、洗衣机、电冰箱和手机，另外再提供13%的政府补贴，目的是刺激中国农村地区的家电销量。
这意味着，史小萍销售松下洗衣机的价格能够以比几个月前至少低25%。“或许这能够给我们带来更好的销量，否则今年会非常困难，”她表示。
“家电下乡”计划自去年12月开始在中国的12个省份启动，但今年2月1日才在全国正式推出。这是中国政府通过刺激国内制造业来抵御全球经济衰退策略的一部分。
中国政府2月2日公布的数据显示，由于全球经济危机的影响，中国迄今已有2000多万失业农民工返乡。
虽然一些分析师怀疑中国农民在拉动电子产业走出全球严重衰退的泥潭方面能发挥多大作用，但中国国内的大型家电制造商却相当乐观。
中国家电与电子产品供应商TCL表示，仅上个月内，四分之一的总产量都专供给了该下乡计划。四川家电制造商长虹估计，今年可从家电下乡计划中获得80亿元人民币的收入，超过去年第三季度72亿元人民币的收入总和。
电视机和手机生产商熊猫电子预期，今年总收入将至少增长20%，尽管出口订单将同比减少60%。一位高管表示：“今年家电下乡的销售量将占到我们国内销量的50%以上。”
分析师警告称，虽然中国的普通电视机制造商也许将从计划中获益，但这项措施可能无助于液晶平板电视制造商。
中国政府为家电下乡计划中的电视机设置了2000元人民币的零售价格上限。这意味着利润更高的大尺寸平板电视自动出局。
在白色家电方面，该计划似乎将帮助中国的大型制造商打入迄今一直由地方小型生产商占据的市场。
“农村销售占我们全国销量的90%，”华东白色家电制造商——江苏白雪电器总经办主任顾益新表示。
“原来大品牌的价位达不到农民期望的价位，现在因为有了国家的补贴，他们觉得可以了。这对我们这样原来农村网络就一直做得很好的制造商造成了一点压力。”
一直被视为通用电器家电部门潜在竞购者的海尔电器预计，今年家电下乡项目将为公司创造180亿元人民币的收入，占其全年农村销售目标的一半以上。
零售商们警告称，家电下乡项目增加产品种类、扩大覆盖地区后，引发了残酷激烈的竞争。
临潼镇某电器商场的销售经理王益（音译）负责销售中国国有企业长菱生产的电冰箱，他表示：“我们很难说服购买者，因为隔壁的小店会以更低的价格提供更低质量的产品，同时宣称他们这样做也是因为能拿到财政部的补贴。”
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