日本经济恶化日经指数大跌
Japan's Nikkei Slides As Economy Weakens2009年3月11日
Japan's economy, already contracting at an alarming rate, received a fresh blow Monday as its stock market sank to 26-year lows and plunging exports led to its first current-account deficit in 13 years.
January's deficit in the current account, the broadest measure of the country's trade and exchange of services with the rest of the world, stood at 172.8 billion yen before seasonal adjustment, the Ministry of Finance said. Exports sank by 46.3% from January 2008, the fastest drop on record, while imports dropped by 31.7%. A decline in interest and dividend income from Japanese companies' investments overseas added to the deterioration in the current-account balance.
Also Monday, bankruptcies rose 10.3% during February from a year earlier, with casualties among manufacturers hitting their highest levels in a year, according to credit-data compiler Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 1.2% to 7086.03 on Monday, its lowest close since Oct. 6, 1982, before Japan went through a 'bubble' economy fueled by soaring real-estate and stock prices that burst in the early 1990s and led to a protracted slump.
The index fell sharply in October 2008 as global demand for manufactured goods dried up and the yen strengthened, making Japanese companies' products less attractive to foreign buyers. The world's second-largest economy shrank by 3.3% in the final quarter of 2008, a steeper decline than in the U.S. or the euro zone for the period. The stock market has ground lower since, as the economic outlook worsened. Many analysts are forecasting another contraction during the current quarter ending March 31.
Making things worse, Japan's ruling political party has been mired in gaffes and policy flip-flops, denting investors' confidence about the country's ability to tackle the economic malaise.
'Japanese policy makers have been slow to respond to deteriorating economic conditions and a lack in political leadership has been making the situation worse,' wrote Susumu Kato, chief economist for CLSA in Japan in a note.
The government is weighing a number of steps. Last month, Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said officials are considering ways to expand its stock-buying program, including setting up a fund. The Bank of Japan already is buying shares held by financial institutions.
Analysts say the effect of these measures may be limited. Meanwhile, as exporters lay off staff to cope with falling sales, economists expect domestic consumer demand will continue to weaken, which in turn may hurt domestic-focused sectors such as property.
Real-estate stocks were the worst performers on Monday. Mitsui Fudosan sank 8.2% to 885 yen, Mitsubishi Estate fell 5.5% to 891 yen and Sumitomo Realty & Development ended down 9% at 804 yen.
Analysts say they also are concerned about the results of 'stress tests' the U.S. government is carrying out on the 19 largest American banks. If the financial problems in the U.S. and Europe deteriorate, that would further weaken demand for Japanese exports, they say.
Still, the Nikkei has marginally outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average in recent weeks as the U.S. benchmark racked up its fourth consecutive week of losses.
'Since Japanese shares are already trading at around book value, there appears to be greater room for stock-price declines in U.S. and European markets,' said Kazuhiro Miyake, an analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research.
Alison Tudor 日本经济恶化 日经指数大跌
已经在以惊人速度收缩的日本经济周一遭受新的打击，日本股市下挫至26年低点，同时出口大幅下滑导致日本13年来首次出现经常项目赤字。
日本财务省公布，1月份未经季节因素调整的经常项目赤字为1,728亿日圆（合17.7亿美元）。2008年1月至今，日本出口下滑46.3%，创历史最大降幅，同期进口减少了31.7%。日本公司在海外投资的利息和派息下降加大了经常项目余额的滑坡速度。
信贷数据汇编公司Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd.周一发布的数据显示，今年2月份破产较上年同期增加10.3%，制造业企业破产的数量达到一年来的最高水平。
基准的日经指数周一下跌1.2%，至7086.03点，创下1982年10月6日以来的最低收盘点位，当时日本尚未步入房地产价格和股价飙升所推动的“泡沫”经济，自从上世纪90年代初泡沫破裂后日本经济就陷入了长期衰退。
AFP 一名行人经过电子显示牌日经指数曾在2008年10月大幅下挫，因全球对制成品的需求枯竭，而且日圆走强也削弱了日本产品对外国买家的吸引力。2008年第四季度，身为全球第二大经济体的日本经济收缩3.3%，下滑幅度超过同期的美国和欧元区。在那之后，随着经济前景恶化，股市也节节下挫。许多分析师预测日本经济会在截止3月31日的当前财季中再度收缩。
令事态雪上加霜是，日本执政党的失态和政策摇摆情况不断，削弱了投资者对日本应对经济危机能力的信心。
里昂证券（亚洲)驻日本首席经济学家Susumu Kato在一份报告中写道，日本决策者在应对不断恶化的经济状况时行动迟缓，而政治引领的缺乏使得情况进一步恶化。
日本政府在考虑多项举措。上个月，财务大臣与谢野馨说有关官员在考虑扩大买进股票计划的举措，包括建立一个基金。日本央行已经在买进金融机构持有的股票。
分析师们认为这些举措的效果可能有限。与此同时，随着出口商实施裁员以应对销售额下滑的状况，经济学家们预计国内消费需求会进一步走弱，而这又有可能反过来损害房地产等内向型的行业。
房地产类股是周一股市表现最糟的。三井不动产下挫8.2%至885日圆，三菱地所下跌5.5%至891日圆，住友不动产收盘跌9%，报804日圆。
分析师们还担心美国政府对美19家规模最大的银行进行的“压力测试”的结果。他们认为，倘若欧美金融危机恶化，日本出口产品的需求则会进一步受到削弱。
不过，最近几周日经指数表现仍勉强好于道琼斯指数，道指已是连续第四周下跌。
大和总研分析师Kazuhiro Miyake说，由于日本股票交易价格已经接近帐面价值，美国和欧洲股市的下行空间似乎更大。
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