朝鲜的火箭坠入太平洋
North Korea launched a multistage rocket, advancing its weapons-development program that the U.S. and other countries have tried for years to stop.The rocket, launched at 11:30 a.m. Sunday local time, apparently failed to reach Pyongyang's stated goal of putting a satellite into space. It flew for about 13 minutes but plunged into the Pacific Ocean 1,270 kilometers east of Japan as the second of its three stages was firing, officials in Japan, South Korea and the U.S. said.
The flight ended approximately 600 kilometers short of where North Korea, in a filing to international maritime authorities, said it expected the second stage to fall. The third stage didn't fire at all, U.S. officials said.
North Korea several weeks ago announced a timing window for the launch and, as a result, generated enormous attention in Japan and South Korea. When it finally pushed the button, the launch played out virtually in real time on Japanese TV networks, which quickly relayed information from military and government sources as the rocket flew over the country.
As a result of the rocket's failure to reach a third stage, it may be difficult for analysts to determine whether North Korea launched a space rocket or a long-range missile, as many outsiders suspected.
Despite the uncertainty, world leaders immediately criticized North Korea, just as they did with its previous tests of missiles over the past two decades and a nuclear device in 2006.
'Even if North Korea did not launch a satellite, they continued their effort to build an intercontinental ballistic missile despite outside pressure and will continue it in the future,' said Kim Tae-woo, vice president at the Korea Institute of Defense Analysis in Seoul. 'North Korea has demonstrated its capability politically. This complicates all negotiations with the North going forward.'
North Korea's weapons drive serves multiple purposes for the authoritarian regime of its dictator, Kim Jong Il. In addition to building the country's own military strength, it provides an economic boost from arms sales to countries like Iran and Yemen, and a diplomatic tool for extracting aid and security concessions from countries such as Japan, South Korea and the U.S.
Though North Korea is one of the world's poorest countries, its skill with missiles and rockets has improved steadily since it first acquired a missile from Egypt around 1980.
Its weapons-research program involves hundreds of scientists at labs in the capital Pyongyang and other cities, including Yongbyon, where the country's nuclear power plant is located.
In the early 1990s, the country relied heavily on Russian experts to train its missile specialists. Today, it exports such expertise, providing scientists and components to help countries such as Syria develop their own missile systems.
Such gains are achieved under North Korean policy dubbed 'military first' that requires citizens to sacrifice their prosperity, including food, for the sake of the military and weapons development.
North Korean state TV broadcast a half-hour special about the launch and boasted that it placed a satellite in space that was transmitting songs in praise of Mr. Kim. The launch was timed in part to occur before the April 9 meeting of North Korea's rubber-stamp legislature, which is scheduled to again proclaim Mr. Kim as national defense chairman, his only official title.
South Korean analysts estimate North Korea spends several hundred million dollars annually on missile systems. The North is currently building a second major testing facility in a northwestern province, to accompany the launch site on its northeast coast that was used for Sunday's rocket.
Outside military and intelligence officials in mid-January first observed preparations at that site, called Musudan-ri, via satellite photography. In mid-February, North Korea said it was preparing to launch a communications satellite and it later announced a launch plan for April 4-8.
In contrast to North Korea's previous launches of long-range missiles in 1998 and 2006, missile-defense systems in the U.S. and Japan have improved to the level where they could credibly respond to a launch by shooting down the North Korean rocket. That prospect may have played a role in the North's insistence that the rocket was headed for space.
After firing its long-range missile in 1998, North Korea said it was headed for space. The country didn't discuss space at all with the 2006 missile launch. Both missiles also failed to go their expected distances. Sunday's rocket stayed aloft longer and traveled farther than the previous two.
The U.S. ruled out shooting down the projectile several weeks ago and Japanese officials said they would only shoot if the rocket or debris from it started to fall on its territory. No attempt to shoot down the rocket was made Sunday.
North Korea's disclosure of its plans prompted several weeks of outcry and warnings by leaders from other countries and the U.N., which banned North Korea from ballistic missile testing after the 2006 launch and its subsequent test of a nuclear device in October that year.
Mr. Obama added his voice on Friday, saying North Korea would pay a price if it went through with the launch. After it happened, he raised North Korea in a speech on disarmament that he'd already scheduled for Sunday morning in Prague.
'This provocation underscores the need for action -- not just this afternoon at the U.N. Security Council, but in our determination to prevent the spread of these weapons,' Mr. Obama said in the speech. 'Rules must be binding. Violations must be punished. Words must mean something.'
But Mr. Obama may find it harder to forge a coalition to penalize North Korea than his predecessor, George W. Bush, did in 2006. China didn't oppose U.N. sanctions imposed then, in part because North Korea's missile tests at that time took it by surprise. Today, China is more worried about its investments in the country, the stability of Mr. Kim's grip on power after his illness last year and the continuing flow of North Korea refugees into its northeastern provinces.
After Sunday's launch, China issued a mild statement that urged 'calm and restraint' by other countries.
Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi on Sunday spoke with top diplomats from the other nations in the six-party talks, and urged their nations to avoid any moves that could further increase tension in the region, the official Xinhua news agency reported.
The report indicated that Beijing prefers the forum of the six-party talks to U.N. sanctions.
'China now sees that economic sanctions will only undermine its influence on North Korea, not strengthen it,' says Yan Xuetong, head of the Institute of International Relations of Tsinghua University. 'China has readjusted its policy and I don't think it will support sanctions.'
South Korea Foreign Minister Yu Myung-Hwan said it will consider joining a U.S.-led effort to stop trafficking of weapons of mass destruction, called the Proliferation Security Initiative, in response to the North's launch.
朝鲜周日发射了一枚多级火箭，进一步推进了美国和其他国家多年来一直试图阻止的武器开发计划。
这枚火箭于朝鲜当地时间周日上午11:30发射，显然没能达到平壤方面宣称的将一颗卫星送入太空的目标。日本、韩国和美国的官员说，这枚三级火箭飞行了约13分钟，在第二级火箭点火时坠入日本以东1,270公里处的太平洋海域。
火箭的飞行距离较朝鲜向国际海事部门提交的文件中所预计的第二级火箭坠落位置少了大约600公里。美国官员说，第三级火箭根本就没点火。
朝鲜几周前宣布了火箭发射的时间段，引起了日本和韩国的强烈关注。当朝鲜终于按下发射按钮后，在火箭飞越日本上空时，日本电视网迅速转播了从军方和政府来源获得的信息，对火箭发射进行了实时模拟演示。
由于第三级火箭没能点火，分析人士可能难以确定朝鲜发射的是一枚太空火箭还是许多外界人士所猜测的远程导弹。
尽管存在这方面的不确定性，但各国领导人仍立即做出反应，谴责朝鲜的火箭发射，正如他们对近20年来朝鲜的历次导弹发射和2006年测试核设施时所做的一样。
位于首尔的韩国国防分析研究院的副校长Kim Tae-woo说，就算朝鲜没有发射卫星，他们也是不顾外界压力继续研制州际弹道导弹，今后还会这样做。他说，朝鲜已经通过政治途径展示了自己的能力，这让与朝鲜进行的所有磋商都变得更加困难。
对朝鲜独裁者金正日的专制政权来说，发展武器计划有多重目的。除了提高朝鲜自身的军事实力之外，发展武器计划还可以销往伊朗和也门等国，给其带来经济效益，同时朝鲜政府也将其视为从日本、韩国以及美国等国索取援助和安全问题让步的外交手段。
尽管朝鲜是世界上最贫困的国家之一，但自1980年前后该国从埃及购得了一枚导弹以来，它的导弹和火箭研制能力却在稳步提高。
朝鲜首都平壤和其他城市研究室中的数百名科学家参与了该国的武器研究计划，包括朝鲜核电站所在地宁边的研究人员。
上世纪90年代初，朝鲜严重依赖俄罗斯专家来培训导弹科研技术人员。如今，朝鲜已经在出口导弹技术，向叙利亚等国提供科学家和组件帮助其发展导弹系统。
这样的收获是在朝鲜所谓的“军事第一”的政策指引下取得的。这项政策要求朝鲜民众为军事和武器发展而牺牲自己的富足生活（包括食品）。
朝鲜国家电视台就此次发射播放了半个小时的特别节目，称其向太空发射了一颗卫星，播放颂扬金正日的歌曲。此次发射时间一定程度上是为了赶在朝鲜最高人民会议4月9日召开会议之前，会议将再次宣布金正日为朝鲜国防委员会委员长，这是金正日的唯一官方头衔。
韩国分析人士估计，朝鲜每年在导弹系统研制上花费数亿美元。朝鲜目前正在西北的一个省建造第二个大型测试设施，作为周日发射火箭的东北沿海发射基地的补充。
今年1月中旬，外国军事和情报官员通过卫星照片首先发现了舞水端里的发射准备活动。朝鲜2月中旬表示，正在准备发射一枚通信卫星，并在晚些时候宣布计划在4月4-8日发射。
同朝鲜在1998年和2006年的前几次发射远程导弹相比，美国和日本的导弹防御系统已经有了很大进步，能够可靠地拦截击毁朝鲜的这枚火箭。这可能也是朝鲜坚持称火箭发射是为将卫星送入太空的原因之一。
1998年朝鲜发射了远程导弹后，曾表示准备发展太空技术。2006年朝鲜发射导弹时，根本就没有谈到太空问题。那两次导弹发射也都没有达到预计的飞行距离。与之相比，周日发射的火箭在空中飞行时间更长、飞行距离更远。
美国在数周之前就排除了拦截击落朝鲜火箭的可能性，日本官员也表示，除非朝鲜发射的火箭或残骸坠落到日本领土，否则日本不会开火拦截。两国周日没有试图拦截朝鲜此枚火箭。
朝鲜公布发射计划引起了其他国家领导人和联合国官员长达数周的强烈抗议和警告。2006年朝鲜发射了一枚导弹，同年10月又进行了核试验，此后联合国就禁止朝鲜开展弹道导弹试验。
奥巴马周五也表示，如果朝鲜将发射计划付诸实施，它将为此付出代价。朝鲜发射了火箭后，在已定于周日早间在布拉格就裁军问题发表的演讲中，奥巴马谈到了朝鲜。
奥巴马在演讲中说，朝鲜的这种挑衅行为凸显出了行动的必要性，不只是周日下午在联合国安理会上要采取行动，我们也要下定决心防止这类武器的扩散。他说，规则必须有约束力，违规行为必须受到惩罚，必须说话算话。
但奥巴马或许会发现，与前任布什总统在2006年的情况相比，如今要组建一个惩罚朝鲜的同盟是更加困难。当时中国没有反对联合国对朝鲜施加制裁，部分原因是朝鲜的导弹试验令中国也感到出乎意料。目前中国更加担忧其在朝鲜的投资，担心金正日去年生病后其政权的稳定性，害怕朝鲜难民持续涌进中国的东北地区。
朝鲜周日发射导弹后，中国发布了一份温和的声明，督促其他国家保持冷静和克制。
报导称，中国外交部长杨洁篪周日分别与参与六方会谈的其他国家的高级外交官员通电话，敦促这些国家避免采取可能导致局势进一步紧张的行动。
报导间接表明，北京方面更倾向于以六方会谈，而不是联合国制裁来解决问题。
清华大学国际关系研究所所长阎学通说，中国现在认为经济制裁只会破坏、而不是增强中国对朝鲜的影响力。他说，中国已经调整了政策，我认为中国不会支持进行制裁。
韩国外交通商部长官柳明桓说，作为对朝鲜发射火箭的回应，韩国将考虑加入美国牵头的阻止大规模杀伤武器走私的组织──“防止扩散安全倡议”
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