日本物价下跌引发通缩之忧
Japan's Falling Prices Spur Deflation Fears2009年5月2日
The green shoots of a recovery in Japan's manufacturing sector are appearing just as a protracted period of deflation menaces the nation's overall economy.
After three years of mild price increases, Japan is about to enter another stretch of deflation -- when constantly weakening prices discourage consumers from spending and companies from investing. In recent months, prices have been pulled down by falling oil and commodities prices as well as eroding consumer demand as Japan grapples with recession.
The encouraging news about manufacturing was accompanied by a grim diagnosis for the overall economy. The Bank of Japan lowered its forecast for the core consumer-price index, which excludes volatile fresh food but includes energy prices, to a decline of 1.5% for the current fiscal year ending in March, compared with an increase of 1.2% for the past fiscal year. For the fiscal year ending in March 2011, the central bank predicts the index will fall 1%.
Until recently, consumer prices have held up surprisingly well, thanks to the effect of previous increases in energy and commodities prices. But now that such a boost is disappearing, the core consumer-price index in March, to be announced Friday, is likely to have contracted 0.2% from a year earlier, marking the first decline since September 2007, according to forecasts from economists.
Amid the world-wide slowdown, inflation pressure has subsided rapidly -- giving rise to deflation concerns -- as commodities prices decline and wages shrink. The International Monetary Fund sees headline inflation in advanced economies falling by an average 0.2% this year, before rising by 0.3% in 2010.
'Japan starts with significantly greater deflation risks than the United States or the euro area,' the IMF said in a recent report. 'Economic activity is very weak, and, apart from the energy-related spike in 2008, the inflation rate has not been much above zero for many years.'
Deflation is taking hold in Japan even as recent data indicate the worst may be over for the country's all-important manufacturing sector, where a slump in exports has led to stark cuts in production. The government said Thursday that industrial production expanded 1.6% from a month earlier in March, in its first increase in six months. Output remains far lower than year-earlier levels but the data suggest manufacturers are beginning to ease up on production cuts as inventories that had piled up have slimmed down considerably.
The BOJ said the economy will likely contract 3.1% during the current fiscal year, before expanding 1.2% in the following year. The central bank kept its monetary policy steady, with its key rate near zero at 0.1%.
A senior BOJ official said fear among economists of not knowing the length and depth of the recession has been replaced by a 'sliver of hope,' thanks to improvements in export and production data. He added that the sustainability of the recovery remains 'a very big question.'
Many nations, including the U.S. and China, now face weaker consumer prices. But Japan, which was dogged by deflation from 1999 to 2005, faces a particular risk of persistent deflation as its aging and contracting population makes consumer demand in the nation inherently weak, with or without a recession, economists say.
'Continued weakening in prices could bring about spiraling declines in corporate profits, employment, and workers' income,' said Satoru Ogasawara, a Credit Suisse economist in Tokyo. 'That would push down final demand further.'
In Japan, government data are just beginning to reflect price declines throughout the country. To woo thrifty consumers, companies are relying on lessons learned during the last round of deflation, and in recent months have cut prices on items such as bread, blue jeans and sofas.
Faced with chronic declines in sales, top supermarket chains have resorted to an all-out price war, which, according to analysts, is cutting further into their earnings. Retailer Seiyu Ltd. started a campaign to match competitors' prices if customers brought in ads showing lower prices, borrowing a strategy of its parent company, Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
日本物价下跌引发通缩之忧
日 本制造业复苏的萌芽正在出现，而与此同时，挥之不去的通货紧缩阴影则威胁着日本的整体经济。
Bloomberg News
东京的一家超市 在经历了三年微弱的物价上涨后，日本可能陷入另一轮通货紧缩，价格的持续走软令消费者不愿支出，企业也不愿投资。近几个月来，由于油价和大宗商品价格走低，以及日本陷入衰退打击了消费者的需求，物价一直在下跌。
制造业传出令人鼓舞的消息之际整体经济却面临严峻的形势。日本央行把本财年（截至明年3月份）的核心消费者价格指数的预期下调至下降1.5%，而上一财年为增长1.2%。核心消费者价格指数不包括波动较大的生鲜食品，但包括能源价格。对2011年3月结束的下一财年，日本央行预测该指数将下降1%。
直到不久前，消费者价格的表现还出人意料的好，这主要是受到此前能源和大宗商品价格上涨的影响。但如今，这种推动作用正在消失。根据经济学家的预测，定于周五宣布的3月份核心消费者价格指数很可能较上年同期收缩0.2%，为2007年9月以来的首次下跌。
由于全球经济放缓，通胀压力已在迅速消退，而且随着商品价格下降和工资的减少，对通缩的担忧卷土重来。国际货币基金组织认为，发达经济体的总体通货膨胀率今年会平均下降了0.2%，到2010年则会增长0.3%。
国际货币基金组织在近期的报告中说，日本陷入通货紧缩的风险已开始明显大于美国或欧洲地区。经济活动非常疲弱，除了2008年与能源相关的上升之外，通货膨胀率已经多年没有明显高于零点了。
出口的下滑曾导致日本最为重要的制造业大幅削减产量。尽管最近的数据表明，日本制造业最坏的情况可能已经过去，但通货紧缩的压力正在显现。政府周四公布，3月份工业产值较上月增长1.6%，为六个月来的首次增长。尽管这一产值仍远远低于上年同期水平，但数据显示，随着过去堆积的库存大幅减少，制造商已开始放缓减产步伐。
日本央行表示，本财年的经济可能收缩3.1%，2010年可能增长1.2%。央行仍保持稳健的货币政策，其主导利率仅略高于零，为0.1%。
央行一位高级官员说，由于出口和生产数据的改善，经济学家当中对衰退持续时间和深度难以判断的担忧情绪已为“一线希望”所取代。他补充说，复苏的持续性仍是“一个很大的问题。”
包括美国和中国在内的许多国家目前都面临着消费物价疲弱的局面。不过经济学家说，在1999年至2005年期间陷入通货紧缩的日本，持续通货紧缩的风险更大，无论是否出现衰退，人口的减少和老龄化问题令这个国家的消费需求存在先天性的不足。
瑞信驻东京经济学家Satoru Ogasawara说，物价的持续疲弱可能带来企业利润、就业和工人收入的螺旋式下降。这将导致最终需求的进一步下降。
在日本，政府数据刚刚开始反映出全国物价的下跌。为了吸引节俭的消费者，企业正在依靠从上一轮通货紧缩中吸取的经验教训，并在最近几个月下调了面包、牛仔裤和沙发等商品的价格。
面对销售额的长期下降，大型连锁超市开始重启价格大战，分析师说，此举将进一步减少它们的利润。零售商西友百货开始推出了一项从母公司沃尔玛借鉴来的活动，即如果顾客出示了显示竞争对手的商品价格更低的广告，那么它也将执行这一价格。
页:
[1]