哥本哈根峰会各国都在想什么
Copenhagen Summit: Who Wants What In CopenhagenThis week, officials from 192 countries will meet in Copenhagen to tackle global climate change, seeking a successor to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Even if they can't negotiate a binding agreement, many countries hope at least to work out commitments to reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions and provide assistance to poorer countries likely to be hardest hit by the effects of global warming.
Each country, of course, has its own particular priorites and concerns, which is why an agreement is so difficult to reach. Here's a look at some of their agendas for Copenhagen.
U.S.
The U.S.'s failure to pass climate-change legislation has meant a delay in a deal at Copenhagen. But pending bills in Congress and the Obama administration's authority to regulate emissions give the country credibility -- and negotiating leverage toward an eventual agreement. The U.S. may still pledge to cut emissions about 17% by 2020, while offering funding of low-carbon initiatives for poorer countries to draw them to an agreement. The U.S. also wants other countries, mainly China and India, to commit on when their greenhouse-gas emissions will peak, and will demand stringent standards for reporting, monitoring and verification of emissions and reductions.
China
China has pledged to curb carbon emissions as a percentage of gross domestic product by 40% to 45% by 2020. These would be voluntary cuts and therefore unlikely to be part of a binding climate-change pact. But it signals China's interest in an agreement at Copenhagen. Such a deal could bring the country benefits: more funding and technology transfers from developed nations, and as an exporter of solar-power and wind-power equipment, increased demand for its products. What China dreads most is the end of Kyoto provisions that grant tradable credits for reducing emissions; China has been the top receiver for the credits, getting 59% of the total.
India
India, which has long resisted the imposition of carbon-emission caps, says it is ready to cut emissions intensity 20% to 25% by 2020, but won't accept legally binding targets. It argues that it needs development and economic growth before it should consider fixed emission caps and that the developed world has a historic responsibility to take more restrictive measures because it caused decades of atmospheric damage. India also favors financing and technology transfer to boost green energy solutions.
Russia
Climate change isn't high on Russia's agenda; its attention is on the massive investments it needs to make its aging Soviet-era industrial infrastructure more energy-efficient -- with a goal of a 40% improvement in energy efficiency by 2020. Diplomats say the country is willing to reduce emissions between 20% and 25% from 1990 levels. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin says Russia will join a post-Kyoto agreement only if other countries sign up for it and if Russian forests' contribution to reducing global carbon dioxide is taken into account.
Brazil
Brazil's government will aim to cut greenhouse-gas emissions between 36% and 39% by reducing deforestation in the Amazon rain forest and increasing the use of fuel-efficient cars and trucks that use biofuels as well as gasoline. But the emissions target is voluntary and depends on the government obtaining financing for the aggressive goals, indicating that Brazil isn't willing to stifle industrial output in Latin America's largest economy. And efforts to reduce deforestation in the Amazon could be stymied by lawlessness in the poverty-stricken region.
European Union
The 27-member European Union aims to speak with one voice in Copenhagen. Its goal: taking action that would limit global warming to two degrees Celsius . The EU intends to cut CO2 emissions 20% by 2020 from 1990 levels and is willing to raise that target to 30% if other countries commit to do their part. It is also ready to help developing countries financially, but it hasn't committed to specific figures. Some Western European countries advocate generosity, but some newer members from Eastern Europe are much less willing to pay.
Poland
Poland and other Eastern European nations want a deal that isn't too economically burdensome. The issue is how financial support for developing countries should be shared by EU members. Wealthy members propose making contributions proportional to a country's emissions. But because Eastern members' energy sectors rely heavily on coal, they would pay disproportionately more than if shares were based on their economic output. Poland also wants to be able to continue selling certain carbon credits after the Kyoto protocol expires in 2012. Because Poland has reduced CO2 emissions by 30% over the past 20 years, it can sell credits worth billions of euros.
Africa
African countries blame developed countries for greenhouse-gas emissions and want to be compensated for the impact of global warming. But they disagree on priorities. The African Union wants billions of dollars to adapt to climate change, which is blamed for record droughts in East Africa and flooding in other regions. Oil-producing nations, such as Nigeria, want compensation for the lost revenues that could result from expected declines in oil consumption by industrialized nations.
Indonesia
In Indonesia, the world's No. 3 carbon-dioxide emitter , much of the emissions result from deforestation. It probably will ask for international technology and funds for forest conservation. Also, it favors self-monitoring in future programs that give credits for reducing emissions from deforestation, and hints it will oppose efforts to create an international monitoring body. The nation pledges to cut emissions 26% by 2020 from 'business-as-usual' levels, but officials say Indonesia will raise its target to 41% if it receives the international funding and technology support it needs.
Ecuador
Ecuador, an oil producer, will come to Copenhagen with a novel idea: get rich countries to pay $3.5 billion to keep 850 million barrels of its crude in the ground. The oil is located in a natural reserve of the Amazonian forest whose protection will be a cornerstone of the talks. A delegation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has visited to look at the project. The government, which has renamed its oil ministry the 'ministry of non-renewable resources,' has pitched the idea to some European governments.哥本哈根峰会: 各国都在想什么？ 参加哥本哈根气候变化峰会的各国都有自己的议事日程，而这正是它们为何难以达成协议的原因。
本周，来自192个国家的官员将齐聚哥本哈根，探讨如何应对全球气候变化问题，他们将寻求达成一项新的协议，以接替1997年签署的《京都议定书》（Kyoto Protocol）。即便各国在此次会议上无法达成一项具约束力的协议，许多国家也希望至少能够约定减少各国温室气体排放量，并向最有可能受到全球变暖影响冲击的发展中国家提供帮助。
当然，每个国家都有自己特殊的当务之急和种种顾虑。我们不妨看看几个国家针对此次哥本哈根之行的一些议事日程。
美国
美国未能通过气候变化法案意味着哥本哈根峰会达成协议将被延后。不过，仍在国会有待批准的议案以及奥巴马政府监管温室气体排放量的权力让美国政府树立起可信度，并增加了其谈判的砝码，为最终促成协议定下基础。美国政府可能仍会承诺到2020年美国二氧化碳排放总量下降17%，同时为发展中国家的低碳项目提供资金援助，以使各国达成协议。美国还希望其它国家，主要是中国和印度承诺其温室气体排放量何时达到顶峰，并要求两国政府制定严格的有关报告、监控和核查温室气体排放量和减排量的标准。
中国
中国已经承诺，到2020年中国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%-45%。这意味着中国将进行自愿减排，因此，不太可能写进一份有法律约束力的气候变化协议。但是，这也体现了中国对哥本哈根峰会达成协议抱有兴趣，这可能会给中国带来各种好处；中国将从发达国家获得更多的资金援助和技术转让。作为太阳能和风电设备的出口大国，中国还将获得更多的产品需求。让中国政府最为担心的则是结束《京都议定书》有关在发展中国家的减排可以带来可交易的碳排放额度的条款；中国一直是相关机制的最大受益者，其获得的碳排放额度占总量的59%。
印度
印度政府长期以来都在抵制实施碳排放上限。印度说准备在2020年将排放强度削减20%-25%，但不会接受有法律约束力的减排指标。印度辩解称，印度在考虑固定的排放峰值之前，需要发展和经济增长，而发达国家肩负采取更多限制性措施的历史责任，因为它们才是导致几十年来气候遭到损害的罪魁祸首。印度政府也支持利用资金援助和技术转让刺激绿色能源解决方案。近来，印度领导人已经显示出变通的迹象，自印度去年粉碎世界贸易谈判之后，他们急于证明自己不会成为哥本哈根峰会的破坏者。
俄罗斯
气候变化问题并非俄罗斯政府议事日程的重点；其注意力集中在旨在推动前苏联时期工业基础设施节能化所需的大量投资上。俄罗斯政府的目标是到2020年将能源效率提高40%。有关外交官称，俄罗斯愿意将碳排放从1990年的水平减少20%到25%。俄罗斯总理普京（Vladimir Putin）则表示，俄罗斯愿意签署后《京都议定书》协议，前提其它国家也要签署此项协议，而且俄罗斯森林对于减少全球二氧化碳排放量的贡献亦被考虑其中。
巴西
巴西政府定下的温室气体减排目标是36%-39%，将通过停止亚马逊流域的森林采伐，普及既能使用生物燃料又能使用普通汽油的高能效的车辆来实现。但这一减排目标是自愿性的，要想实现更高的目标依赖于巴西政府得到资助，显示出作为拉丁美洲最大的经济体，巴西不愿意为减排牺牲工业产出。并且，保护亚马逊地区热带雨林的努力可能因为这一备受贫穷折磨地区的非法砍伐而受阻。
欧盟（European Union）
由27个成员国组成的欧盟希望在哥本哈根峰会上众口一词。其目标是采取行动，将全球变暖限制在摄氏2度（华氏3.6度）以内。欧盟有意承诺到2020年将碳排放从1990年的水平减少20%，并且愿意将这个目标提高到30%，前提是其它国家也要做出减排承诺。欧盟已经准备为发展中国家提供资金援助，但是尚未承诺具体金额。一些西欧国家支持提供资金援助，但是来自东欧的一些新成员的意愿则要低得多。
波兰
波兰和其他东欧国家希望达成的协议不会给他们经济带来太多负担。问题是欧盟成员国之间应当分担多少对发展中国家的财政支持。富裕的欧盟成员国提议依照一个国家的排放量决定捐助比例。但由于东欧的欧盟成员国的能源行业严重依赖于煤炭，如果按照这一提议，他们就会比根据经济产值决定捐助比例的做法支付更多的资金。波兰还希望能够在《京都议定书》于2012年到期后继续出售碳排放额度。由于波兰在过去20年已经将二氧化碳排放量削减了30%，该国可以出售价值数十亿欧元的碳排放额度。
非洲
非洲国家将温室气体排放问题怪罪于发达国家，他们希望因为全球变暖的影响得到补偿。但他们在优先问题上存在不同意见。非洲联盟希望得到数十亿美元（各国领导人没有透露具体金额）以适应气候变化，气候变化导致了东非严重程度创纪录的干旱和其他地区的洪灾。尼日利亚等产油国则认为，工业化国家石油消耗量下降会导致他们的收入减少，他们希望在这方面得到补偿。
印尼
印尼是全球第三大二氧化碳排放国，仅次于中国和美国。该国大量的温室气体排放都来自于滥伐森林。印尼可能会要求国际社会提供保护森林方面的技术和资金。此外，印尼希望能对未来设立的通过减少毁林带来碳排放额度的项目自行监控，该国暗示会反对组建一个国际监控机构。印尼承诺到2020年将排放量从照常发展情景（business-as-usual）削减26%，但该国官员说，如果得到所需的国际资金和技术支持，印尼会将减排比例提高到41%。
厄瓜多尔
作为产油国，厄瓜多尔将向哥本哈根峰会提出一个新的想法：富裕国家支付35亿美元，让该国的8.5亿桶石油储量继续留在地下。这些石油位于亚马逊森林的一个自然保护区，而保护亚马逊森林将成为哥本哈根谈判的重要一环。石油输出国组织的一个代表团已经去考察过该项目。厄瓜多尔明年将出任欧佩克的轮值主席国。厄瓜多尔政府已经将其石油部更名为“不可再生资源部”，他们已经向一些欧洲政府提出了这个想法。
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