双语新闻：美国将超越沙特成为全球最大产油国

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US to be world’s top energy producer
        　　The US will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become theworld’s largest global oil producer by the second half of thisdecade, according to the International Energy Agency, as theshale revolution redraws the global energy landscape.
     国际能源署(IEA)称，随着页岩气革命改写全球能源版图，2015年之后美国将超越沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯，成为全球最大产油国。
        　　The agency’s latest World Energy Outlook said the US could be almost self-sufficient in energy by 2035, marking “a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy-importing countries”. It said the US would overtake Russia as the largest gas producer by 2015.
     这家能源监控机构在其最新的《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中表示，到2035年美国有望基本实现能源自给自足，那将标志着“其他多数能源进口国呈现出的那种趋势发生戏剧性的逆转”。该机构表示，到2015年美国将超越俄罗斯，成为全球最大天然气生产国。
        　　The resurgence in US oil and gas production, it said, was spurring economic activity “with lessexpensive gas and electricity prices giving [US] industry a competitive edge”. Last week, aGermany industry lobby group warned that US companies are enjoying a rising advantage inenergy costs.
     该机构表示，美国油气生产的复兴，正在提振经济活动，因为“价格不那么昂贵的天然气和电力赋予（美国）工业一种竞争优势”。德国一个工业游说组织上周警告称，美国企业在能源成本方面正享受到不断增强的优势。
        　　New extraction techniques – most notably hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, and horizontaldrilling – have unlocked huge hydrocarbon resources previously thought unrecoverable. Theboom, which started in natural gas, has switched to “tight oil” in places such as North Dakota’sBakken Shale and Eagle Ford in South Texas.
    新型采掘技术——最知名的是水力压裂(hydraulic fracturing)和水平钻探——使得以前被认为无法开采的巨大碳氢化合物资源变得可以开采。从天然气起步的这场繁荣，已转向多个地方的“致密油”(tight oil)，如北达科他州的巴肯页岩(Bakken Shale)和得克萨斯州南部的鹰福特(Eagle Ford)。
        　　However, other analysts have warned that the US oil boom is still in its infancy and continuedgrowth cannot be guaranteed. Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist, noted that a drop in global oilprices would affect production, since tight oil requires a high market price to be economic. Incontrast, Saudi oil is much cheaper to produce.
     不过，其他分析师警告称，美国的石油繁荣仍处于襁褓期，无法保证持续增长。IEA首席经济学家法提赫 比罗尔(Fatih Birol)指出，全球油价下跌将影响产量，因为致密油需要在市场价格较高的情况下才具有经济可行性。与此形成反差的是，沙特的石油开采成本要低得多。
        　　If realized, the IEA’s prediction could have significant implications for global commodity markets andthe broader geopolitics of energy. Some analysts have wondered whether an energy-independentUS would still guard the world’s critical sea lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz in two decades’ time – and whether China, whose reliance on Middle East crude imports was growing, would replace it.
            
            

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    IEA的前述预测若成为现实，可能对全球大宗商品市场乃至能源的整体地缘政治格局产生重大影响。一些分析师不禁问道，20年后，能源自给自足的美国是否还会承担保障世界关键海上航道（如霍尔木兹海峡）畅通的任务？对中东原油日益依赖的中国是否会接手这个任务？
        　　The increase in US domestic production comes as new fuel-efficiency measures in transportimposed by the first Obama administration are set to reduce oil demand sharply. That will lead to afall in US oil imports, which the IEA says will plunge from 10m barrels a day to 4m b/d in ten years’ time.
    美国国内石油产量增长的同时，奥巴马第一个任期内出台的新能效措施将大幅削减石油需求。那将导致美国石油进口下降，据IEA预计，美国石油进口量将从每日1000万桶大幅降至10年后的每日400万桶。
        　　According to the IEA, which advises industrialized countries on energy policy, the US will beproducing 11.1m b/d in 2020 compared to Saudi output of 10.6m b/d.
     向工业化国家提供能源政策建议的IEA称，到2020年，美国的石油产量将达到每日1110万桶，而届时沙特石油产量将为每日1060万桶。
        　　Despite America’s rise, Saudi Arabia, which boasts the world’s largest conventional oil reserves andsubstantial undeveloped resources, will still dominate oil markets in the long term. The kingdom willhave regained its top spot by 2030, the IEA predicted, pumping 11.4m b/d compared to the US’ 10.2m b/d. It added that US production will continue to fall, to 9.2m b/d in 2035, while Saudi’s willrise to 12.3m b/d.
    尽管美国石油产量增长，拥有世界最大常规石油储量和大量未开发资源的沙特，仍将在长期内主导石油市场。据IEA预计，到2030年，沙特将夺回全球最大产油国桂冠，每日生产1140万桶石油，高于美国的每日1020万桶。IEA称，到2035年，美国的石油产量将进一步降至每日920万桶，而沙特将增至每日1230万桶。