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Debt Impasse Shadows Race For Presidency
President Obama and Mitt Romney will again debate theirvisions for the next four years on Tuesday night, and if thecampaign so far is any guide, they will not acknowledge that thewinner’s agenda could depend on the fiscal showdown betweenElection Day and Inauguration Day.
周二晚，奥巴马总统和米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)将再度就他们对未来四年的展望进行辩论。如果说我们从迄今为止的选战中已经摸索出了一些规律，那么他们一定不会承认，大选日到总统就职日期间双方在财政问题上的对决将决定获胜方未来的议程。
If Mr. Romney wins, Republicans say they would seek to delay the year-end deadline for abipartisan deal by up to a year to give him time to flesh out his budget plans and get Democrats toagree. But even if Democrats and the financial markets go along with the delay, the months beforeMr. Romney’s swearing-in could be as crucial to his presidency as the transition period was forMr. Obama four years ago, when the economic crisis led him to draft a big stimulus package whilePresident George W. Bush still occupied the White House.
共和党人说，如果罗姆尼获胜，他们会试着将一项年底到期的两党协议延长最多一年，以给罗姆尼足够时间完善其预算计划，并征得民主党的同意。但是即使民主党人同意推迟，金融市场也做出良性反应，罗姆尼宣誓就职前的几个月对其任期来说仍十分重要，其重要性不亚于四年前奥巴马总统就任前的过渡期。当时，乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)仍是白宫之主，但在经济危机的压力之下，奥巴马拟定出了一个巨额的经济刺激计划。
Mr. Romney’s ability to foster cooperation at the outset could determine his success on a range ofissues. Yet Democrats have been dismissive, at best, about his budget plans, which have fewspecifics on how Mr. Romney would reduce deficits. He has mostly spoken about cutting taxes andincreasing military spending.
罗姆尼能否在一开始就促成两党之间的合作将可能决定他未来在一系列问题上的成败。不过，民主党人一直对他的预算计划不屑一顾，而这还是最乐观的说法。该预算计划几乎没有任何减赤的具体措施。大多数时候，罗姆尼都在讲减少税收和增加军事开支。
Mr. Obama, if he loses, would still be president for the lame-duck Congress, so he would havelimited leverage. If he gets another four years in the White House, he already has plans to go rightback on the campaign trail to build support for his deficit-reduction framework, Democrats say, and administration officials are debating whether Mr. Obama should make some concession toRepublicans to spur negotiations.
如果奥巴马在大选中败北，对于已成“跛脚鸭”的美国国会，虽然他还是总统，但他的影响有限。民主党人称，如果奥巴马连任成功，他已经做出计划，将继续四处游说，为其减赤方案争取支持。现任政府的官员们也在讨论奥巴马是否应向共和党人做出一些让步，以推动谈判。
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Without agreement of some kind, more than $700 billion in automatic tax increases and spendingcuts would occur after Dec. 31, scheduled by a mix of coincidence and bipartisan agreement. Howthe re-elected president navigates this “fiscal cliff” could determine how much political clout andbudget resources he will have.
如不另做规定，12月31日以后，增加税收和削减开支计划将开始施行，涉及的总金额将达到7000多亿美元。这是巧合，也是两党协议的共同结果。再度当选的总统将如何跨过这个“财政悬崖”，将会决定其未来能掌控多大政治影响力和预算资源。
“I think it’s the whole ballgame for the second term,” said John D. Podesta, the former chief of staffto President Bill Clinton, who led Mr. Obama’s postelection transition planning four years ago.
“我认为这是第二任期的关键，”曾担任比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)总统幕僚长的约翰·D·波德斯塔 (John D. Podesta)说，波德斯塔也在四年前主导了奥巴马选后过渡期的规划。
Politically, Mr. Obama would have to build trust with Republican leaders who had hoped to makehim a one-term president, even as he remained in campaign mode, seeking to assert his claim to amandate to make the necessary trade-offs on spending and taxes. And the strength he shows indealing with Republicans on Capitol Hill could also set the tone for the debate on other knottyissues, like immigration and climate change.
政治上来说，即使奥巴马仍保持竞选时的积极状态，努力确保其拥有在开支和税收问题上做出必要权衡的权力，他还将需要和之前不希望其连任成功的共和党领导人建立互信。而且，奥巴马在国会与共和党人的谈判中所表现出的气势，也能够奠定移民和气候变化等棘手议题的辩论基调。
Substantively, any agreement in Congress would determine how much money is available in theshort run to address Mr. Obama’s priorities like education, energy and health care.
事实上，国会通过的任何协议都很重要，将决定在短期内有多少钱可以投入教育、能源和医疗领域，这些都是奥巴马目前的首要任务。 |
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发表于 2016-7-11 09:55:18