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China IMF Can cellations Raise Concerns
Souring relations between Japan and China, which sufferedanother blow Wednesday when China's central-bank governorand finance minister pulled out of a high-profile gathering ofglobal finance chiefs in Tokyo, are starting to cause seriouseconomic damage that could deepen if passions stay high, investors, analysts and politicians here warned.
The revelation that China's two highest-level delegates had withdrawn from the annual meeting ofthe International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Tokyo amid an escalating dispute betweenAsia's two biggest economies, sent stocks to a two-month low and heightened worries about real-world impacts.
The Chinese central bank governor's 'nonattendance at the IMF-World Bank meeting is not onlybad for Japan-China relations, but also for the global economy,'' Japanese Foreign Minister KoichiroGemba said at a news conference Wednesday. ``I believe it also won't be a plus for China, considering how the international community will view such moves.''
The spat nominally over who owns a set of tiny islands in the East China Sea has already sparkedanti-Japan protests, battered sales of Japanese goods in China, and decimated tourism betweenthe two countries.
On Wednesday, some analysts lowered their forecasts for car makers and other companies thatdo a lot of business in China, while China's auto association blamed a small sales drop in Septemberon Chinese consumer anger at Japan over the islands. J.P. Morgan Tuesday estimated thatChinese boycotts of Japanese goods and services could shrink Japan's economy by 0.8 percentage point in the last quarter of the year, and岸if tensions stay high in 2013 could curbgrowth by as much as 0.2 percentage point next year.
``I am very concerned'' about the escalating tensions between Japan and China, said TomoyaMasanao, a portfolio manager who oversees Japanese investments for giant asset-manager PacificInvestment Management Co., or Pimco. Mr. Masanao said he expects the situation to betemporary but warned the fund needs to 'monitor how long this situation will continue. We needto re-examine how this is going to affect Japan's growth rate and how this will impact trade data.'
China's state-run Xinhua news agency said China would be represented at the IMF meeting by theNo. 2 officials at the PBOC and the Finance Ministry. Its report didn't mention the last-minutedefection from the IMF meeting of Chinese Finance Minister Xie Xuren as well as People's Bank ofChina Governor Zhou Xiaochuan who was slated to deliver the closing speech.
The absences was the latest sobering reminder that the passions raised by the two countries' territorial spat are far from dying down. Tensions have been building since September, when Japannationalized some of the islands, known as the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyu in Chinese, a moveseen as a provocation by China and Taiwan, which claim them as well.
Experts point to politics as one reason for the dispute's persistence. The leadership in both Chinaand Japan is in a state of flux, and the country's top politicians can't afford to look soft on hot-button issues.
'The concern is that you have both the leadership transition in China and the potential for electionsin Japan,'' said Janet Lewis, an auto analyst at Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong. 'Both of thoseevents could lead to more focus on nationalistic commentary than might otherwise have been thecase.'' Ms. Lewis estimates that unit car sales for Japanese auto makers in China could be almost asbad during October as they were in September, when Toyota Motor Corp. said it sold 49% fewervehicles than the year before.
Deutsche Bank Group on Wednesday lowered its estimate for Toyota's full-year earnings per shareby 2.4%, largely on China concerns. Goldman Sachs for similar reasons cut operating-profitestimates for 16 Japanese electronics companies including printer maker Canon Inc. and cameramaker Olympus Corp.
``Japan is clearly moving more towards overseas investment and overseas sales, so politicalrelations are becoming more and more important,'' said Martin Shulz, a senior economist at theFujitsu Research Institute, at a forum on the sidelines of the IMF meeting. 'Taking care of this [dispute] becomes a very strong issue in the interests of Japanese corporations.''
One path toward easing the current political standoff on the islands is if the ruling party of JapanesePrime Minister Yoshihiko Noda loses to its chief opposition rival during the next elections, said HirokoMaeda, a China expert at think tank PHP Research Institute. While China probably couldn't softenits stance versus Mr. Noda, who approved the purchase of the disputed islands, it might be able tonegotiate with a successor, she said. The date of elections isn't set, but Mr. Noda has promised tohold them soon.
China needs Mr. Noda to be the scapegoat for Japan's nationalization,' Ms. Maeda said. 'He's thebad guy that created the current mess, and the expectation is that the next election will bring inanother leader anyway.'
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上周三，由于中国央行行长和财政部长取消参加在东京举行的备受瞩目的全球财政官员会议，中日关系再次遭受打击。参会的投资者、分析人士和政府官员警告说，两国关系的不断恶化正在对经济产生严重的破坏性影响，如果中日关系继续保持紧张，影响将进一步加深。
在亚洲最大的两个经济体之间争端不断升级之际，中国两名最高级别的代表取消参加国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund,简称: IMF)和世界银行(World Bank)在东京举行的年会，这一消息让股市下跌到了两个月的低点，加剧了外界对现实影响的担忧。
日本外务大臣玄叶光一郎(Koichiro Gemba)周三在新闻发布会上说，中国央行行长取消参加IMF世行会议不仅不利于日中关系，也会对全球经济造成不利影响。他说，考虑到国际社会对这些举动会有何看法，我认为这对中国也没有任何好处。
因东中国海（East China Sea，中国称东海）上一系列小岛归属权问题而造成的中日两国争端，在中国已经引发了反日游行，打击了日本产品在中国的销售，使两国之间的旅游活动中断。
周三，一些分析师调低了在中国有大量业务的汽车制造商和其他公司的预期，同时，中国的汽车协会将9月份汽车销量的小幅下降归因于中国消费者因争议岛屿对日本产生的愤怒情绪。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)周二估计，中国对日本产品和服务的抵制可能会使今年最后一个季度的日本经济缩水0.8个百分点，如果2013年两国关系继续保持紧张，将使日本明年的经济增长最多减少0.2个百分点。
债券基金巨擘太平洋投资管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.)负责日本投资组合的正直知哉(Tomoya Masanao)说，我非常担心日本和中国紧张关系的不断升级。正直知哉说，他预计这种情况是暂时的，但他警告说，公司需要监控这种情况的持续时间。我们需要重新评估它对日本经济增长以及贸易数据的影响。
中国国有媒体新华社报道说，中国将派出央行和财政部的二把手为代表参加IMF会议。新华社的报道中没有提到中国财政部部长谢旭人和中国央行行长周小川在会议之前突然决定不参加会议一事，周小川原定将在大会上致闭幕词。
中国官员缺席本届年会再一次让人清醒地认识到，中日两国因领土争端而出现的紧张关系还远未平息。这种紧张关系自今年9月以来不断加剧。今年9月，日本将尖阁列岛(Senkakus，中国称钓鱼岛)部分岛屿收归国有。宣称对该岛拥有主权的中国大陆和台湾认为此举是一种挑衅。
专家指出，政治因素是两国争端依旧持续的原因之一。中国领导层即将换届，日本也将进行选举，两国领导人无法做到在热点问题上示弱。
麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)驻香港的汽车行业分析师刘易斯(Janet Lewis)说，令人担忧的是，中国领导层即将进行换届，而日本则可能进行选举。这两件事可能导致两国将更多精力放在具有民族主义倾向的言论上，失去了本应有的理智和客观。刘易斯估计今年10月日本汽车厂商在华汽车销量可能和9月一样糟糕。丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)表示，今年9月其在华汽车销量同比下降49%。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank Group)周三将其对丰田汽车公司全年每股收益的预期下调了2.4%，主要是担心其业绩受中国市场影响。高盛出于类似原因下调了16家日本电子产品厂商的营业利润预期，其中包括打印机制造商佳能公司(Canon Inc.)和相机制造商奥林巴斯(Olympus Corp.)。
富士通总研(Fujitsu Research Institute)高级经济学家舒尔茨(Martin Schulz)在参加IMF年会一个论坛间隙接受采访时说，日本显然在更多地朝海外投资和海外销售转型，所以政治关系正变得越来越重要。处理好中日领土争端成了一件符合日本企业利益的大事。
日本智库PHP研究所(PHP Research Institute)中国问题专家前田裕子(Hiroko Maeda)说，缓和当前中日两国因岛屿问题所引发政治僵局的一个途径是，日本首相野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)在未来的选举中输给其主要竞争对手。前田裕子说，尽管中国不太可能软化其针对野田佳彦的立场，但中国可能同其继任者进行谈判。正是野田佳彦批准了日本政府的购岛方案。选举的日期还没确定，但野田佳彦已经承诺尽快举行选举。
前田裕子说，中国需要野田佳彦充当日本政府将钓鱼岛收归国有一事的替罪羊。他是造成当前困境的坏家伙。现在大家的预期是，下一次选举会产生一位新的日本首相。 |
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发表于 2016-7-11 09:55:10