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发表于 2016-8-5 23:47:35
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该表格的结果是由观看剧集的18岁-49岁人群数量，除以观看同年龄段收看剧集所在电视台节目的人群数量，从而得出比较参数。据前一播映季数据显示，92%是一个分水岭，高于此则处于安全区间，低于0.92则有被取消危险。
同时处于表格上端的剧集被取消的可能性更大，而底端的那些再更新的可能性比较大。
由此得出，《俏妈新上路》、《口红森林》、《霹雳游侠》、《终结者外传》、《加力离婚记》和《愚人善事》最有可能被取消；而《实习医生格蕾》、《绝望主妇》、《豪斯医生》、《好汉两个半》、《罪案现场调查迈阿密篇》、《新飞跃比佛利》、《犯罪心理》、《超能英雄》、《辛普森一家》和《恶搞之家》生命力依然旺盛，最有可能还有新季。
Our Renew/Cancel Index finds that Boston Legal (Edit: Alert commenter Jason reminds me that this was already slated to be BL’s final season, good thing!) and ‘Til Death are the scripted shows most likely to be cancelled in the new 2008-9 broadcast television season. In fact, Fox’s Do Not Disturb was the most likely to be cancelled, but Fox beat us to it and already cancelled the show. The other scripted shows in significant danger of being cancelled are The New Adventures of Old Christine, Lipstick Jungle, Knight Rider, Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Gary Unmarried, and My Name is Earl.
How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We’re not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I’m very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.
Of course there are special circumstances, and this is only one week’s worth of network average data (although the show average data does include 2008-9 season airings prior to September 22), so I would expect substantial fluctuations in this list early in the season. I’m confident that the shows at the top of the list come the end of the season are likely to be cancelled as I am that the shows at the bottom of the list are likely to be renewed.
The current shows most likely to be renewed are: Grey’s Anatomy, Desperate Housewives, House, Two and A Half men, CSI: Miami, 90210, Criminal Minds, Heroes, Simpsons, and Family Guy.
Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list. |
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