2012美国大选：区别只是象征性的
US elections: Differences seem more symbolicthan realGoing by the heated discussions of trade, currency andoffshoring on the campaign trail, a casual observer mightconclude that America’s place in the world economy hangs onthe outcome of November’s presidential election.
看到竞选过程中关于贸易、汇率以及公司外包等问题的激烈辩论，粗心大意的观察者可能会得出一个结论，即美国在世界经济中的地位将取决于11月总统大选的结果。
Such a casual observation is likely to be wrong. While Barack Obama and Mitt Romney regularlyhurl accusations at each other of selling out American workers to China, their actual policydifferences are considerably less stark.
这么随意得出的结论可能是错误的。尽管巴拉克 奥巴马(Barack Obama)和米特 罗姆尼(MittRomney)一直在攻击对方把美国工人的利益出卖给中国，但实际上他们在政策上的区别却微乎其微。
Though the eurozone crisis is probably the biggest threat to the world economy at present, itrarely gets a look-in during the exchanges between the candidates, which centre on the questionof China. Mr Romney’s critique of Mr Obama is that he has “failed to take China to the mat” overBeijing’s policy of boosting exports by holding down the renminbi, nor addressed its many tradedistortions. And he has chided Mr Obama for failing to sign new trade agreements to produceexport opportunities for American workers.
尽管欧元区危机可能是世界经济目前面临的最大威胁，但两位候选人在交锋中却很少提及这个问题，反而主要是在拿中国问题做文章。罗姆尼批评奥巴马“没能跟中国大干一场”，阻止中国为刺激出口而压低人民币汇率的做法，也没能纠正多种贸易扭曲。他还谴责奥巴马没能签订新的贸易协议，以便为美国工人创造出口机会。
But Mr Romney’s specific proposals to address these issues appear to informed observers to beeither impractical or unlikely to make much difference. He has pledged to name China as acurrency manipulator on his first day in office, criticising Mr Obama for failing to do so. (Four yearsago, Mr Obama attacked George W. Bush for the same reason, though failed to follow throughonce elected.)
但在见多识广的观察人士看来，罗姆尼针对这些问题的具体提议，要么不切实际要么就不太可能凑效。他承诺一旦当选，将在就职的第一天把中国列为“货币操纵国”，并批评奥巴马言而无信。（四年前，奥巴马曾在这个问题上攻击小布什(George W. Bush)，但他当选之后也没能兑现承诺。）
Yet under current US law, naming a country a currency manipulator – and there are manypotential candidates other than China, including firm US foreign policy allies such as South Korea – merely requires the Treasury to open negotiations with its government, something it routinelydoes already.
然而，根据美国现行法律，将一个国家列为货币操纵国，（除了中国之外，包括韩国等美国外交政策盟友在内的很多其他国家也可能是货币操纵国），只需要美国财政部与该国政府进行谈判，并且财政部已经有了这样的惯例。
In any case, to some extent this looks like a solution to yesterday’s problem, as there is little signthat China has recently been trying to weaken its currency. The renminbi has been more or lessunchanged this year, at least against the dollar, but with China’s foreign exchange reserves havingalso flatlined, it seems to be genuine capital outflows rather than official intervention preventing itfrom appreciating.
无论如何，这在某种程度上都像是一种过时的解决方法，因为基本没有迹象表明中国最近试图在让其货币贬值。今年人民币汇率基本维持不变，至少人民币兑美元汇率是如此。但与此同时中国外汇储备也基本没有增加，因此可能是真正的资金外流而不是政府干预阻止了人民币的升值。
As for the lack of other actions against China, the Obama campaign says it has brought severalcases against Beijing to the WTO at nearly twice the rate of the Bush administration – including onelast month on export subsides for auto parts, timed to coincide with Mr Obama’s visit tomanufacturing-intensive Ohio.
至于没有采取其他针对中国的措施，奥巴马竞选团队表示，本届政府将中国起诉到WTO的案例数目几乎是小布什政府的两倍——上个月美国起诉中国政府为汽车零部件出口提供补贴， 恰逢奥巴马访问制造业重地俄亥俄州之际。
To remedy the alleged lack of trade negotiations, Mr Romney has also proposed a “Reaganeconomic zone” – a trade pact bringing together like-minded free-trade countries. But the US ishaving enough problems with its current negotiations, let alone starting another, much moreambitious, set of talks.
为了解决所谓贸易谈判不力的问题，罗姆尼还提出成立“里根经济区”(Reagan economic zone)，通过一项贸易协定把立场一致的自由贸易国联合起来。但目前美国正进行的谈判存在着颇多问题，更不用说启动新的、目标更远大的系列谈判了。
Mr Obama has been defending his record on trade negotiations by touting last year’s passage ofthree bilateral trade deals – with South Korea, Panama and Colombia – which he says will helpcreate American jobs.
奥巴马一直在宣扬去年与韩国、巴拿马、哥伦比亚签订的三部双边贸易协议，为其贸易谈判纪录进行辩护。奥巴马称，这将有助于美国创造就业机会。
But not only do trade economists tend to regard the employment impact of such pacts as small, Mr Obama’s critics point out that he inherited the deals from the Bush administration, and spentmore than two years before submitting them to Congress.
然而，不仅贸易经济学家倾向于认为这些协议对就业影响较小，而且奥巴马的批评者也指出，奥巴马是从小布什政府“继承”来了这些协议，可他花了两年多的时间才将它们提交到国会。
The main negotiating project of the Obama administration has been the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which combines nine Asia-Pacific countries, with Canada and Mexico declaring their intention to joinlater. But talks on TPP have progressed more slowly than officials had hoped.
奥巴马政府主要的谈判项目是《跨太平洋伙伴关系协议》(Trans-Pacific Partnership,TPP)，该协议把9个亚太国家联系在一起，后来加拿大和墨西哥也表示有意加入。但该协议谈判的进展比官员们的预期要慢得多。
Comments by negotiators and leaked texts from the talks show countries still far apart on subjectssuch as intellectual property rights, the ability of companies to sue governments for expropriatingtheir investments, and the perennially thorny issue of agricultural subsidies and tariffs.
谈判代表们的言论和谈判中泄露的文本显示，有关各国在知识产权、企业是否能够就政府征收其投资项目提起诉讼、以及一直令人头疼的农业补贴和关税等问题上的分歧依然较为严重。
Yet though Mr Romney has pledged to push on with the talks, it is unclear how he would be ableto inject more momentum into the process. A Republican president would face the sameconstellation of domestic lobbying interests – the pharmaceutical and entertainment industries chiefamong them – and the same negotiating partners as a Democrat.
然而，尽管罗姆尼承诺将推进谈判，但他将如何为谈判过程注入更多动力尚未可知。如果共和党获胜，总统将和民主党获胜一样面临着相同的大量国内游说利益集团（其中包括医药和娱乐业的掌舵人）和同样的谈判伙伴。
Grant Aldonas, managing director at the consultancy Split Rock International and an adviser to MrRomney’s campaign, told a meeting in Washington recently that the main difference between thetwo candidates on trade is that Mr Romney would aggressively seek so-called “trade promotionauthority” (TPA) from Congress.
罗姆尼的竞选顾问、咨询公司Split Rock International董事总经理格兰特 奥尔多纳斯(GrantAldonas)最近在华盛顿的一次会议上表示，两位候选人在贸易上的主要不同点就是，罗姆尼将积极致力于在国会获取所谓的“贸易促进权”(TPA)。
Formerly known as “fast-track”, TPA allows a president to submit a whole trade deal to Congressfor a single up-or-down vote rather than being picked apart with amendments.
TPA过去又称“快速审批权”，它授权总统将整个贸易协议提交给国会，国会在放弃修改权的情况下对其进行一次要么通过、要么失败的表决。
But Mr Aldonas also said that, as currently constituted, TPP “falls far short of a revolution in tradepolicy” and questioned the point of an Asia-Pacific trade deal without Japan, so it remains unclearwhat the point of gaining TPA at the moment would be.
但奥尔多纳斯同时表示，从目前的构建方式来看，《跨太平洋伙伴关系协议》还“远远不是贸易政策上的一次革命”，并质疑一项日本未加入的亚太贸易协议有何意义，因此这个时候获得TPA的意义有多大还很难说。
For its part, the Obama campaign has criticised Mr Romney for his tenure at Bain Capital, duringwhich, it said, he outsourced many jobs to China, and has touted its imposition of special importtariffs on Chinese tyres in 2009, a move Mr Romney opposed.
而奥巴马竞选团队则批评罗姆尼在贝恩资本(Bain Capital)任职期间曾将很多就业岗位外包到中国，并且提到了2009年奥巴马对中国造汽车轮胎征收特殊进口关税，罗姆尼对此表示反对。
Again, the differences are more symbolic than real. The Chinese tyre tariffs – which Mr Obamaallowed to lapse last month – were a one-off, with a predicted flood of copycat cases failing to arise.
强调一下，两人之间的不同点更多地体现出象征意义，而不是实际意义。上个月奥巴马批准终止执行的中国轮胎关税，只是一次性的贸易制裁措施，外界预期美国将推出大量制裁措施，但都没能成功地推出。
In truth, the most likely impact from a change in administration would come from the internationalimpact of domestic economic policy. If a Romney administration cut government spending rapidly, or if he appointed a Federal Reserve chairman with less willingness to experiment with loosemonetary policy than Ben Bernanke, the incumbent, the effect on American and thus globaleconomic growth could be substantial.
实际上，共和党人入主白宫最有可能的影响就是，美国国内经济政策会产生怎样的国际冲击。如果罗姆尼政府大幅削减政府支出，或者他提名一为不能像现任美联储(Fed)主席本 伯南克那样愿意尝试宽松货币政策的联储主席，可能会对美国和全球经济增长造成非常大的影响。
But as regards international economic policy itself, and particularly trade, it seems unlikely thatmuch will hinge on November’s result.
但从国际经济政策本身、特别是贸易政策方面看，11月大选的结果不太可能对此产生重大影响。
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