双语新闻：汇率战或令中美两败俱伤
A Tight Rope on China’s CurrencyWASHINGTON — At the presidential debate on Monday night, Mitt Romney, the Republicans’ nominee, repeated his promiseto brand China a currency manipulator and to rebalance the trade relationship between the twocountries.
“I’ve watched year in and year out as companies have shut down and people have lost their jobsbecause China has not played by the same rules, in part by holding down artificially the value oftheir currency,” Mr. Romney said.
But formally citing Beijing as a currency manipulator may backfire, economic and foreign-policyexperts have said. In the worst case, it could set off a trade war, leading to falling Americanexports to China and more expensive Chinese imports.
“The economic credibility of that action would be pretty thin,” said Arvind Subramanian of thePeterson Institute of International Economics in Washington. “Moreover, it would be blatantlyprovocative at a time when the new leadership was getting in place in China, and the newadministration as well.”
Asked about the possibility of a trade war at his debate with President Obama, Mr. Romney saidone was already under way. “It’s a silent one, and they’re winning,” he said. “We can’t justsurrender and lose jobs.”
American officials largely, if tacitly, agree that China manipulates the value of its currency to aid itseconomy.
In its most recent installment of a twice-yearly report to Congress on the exchange and economicpolicies of the United States’ major trading partners, the Treasury Department said that China has “resisted very strong market pressures” for currency appreciation and that its “real effectiveexchange rate exhibited persistent and substantial undervaluation.”
But since 1994, the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations have declined to formally designateChina as a currency manipulator for a number of economic and strategic reasons.
For the Obama administration, one reason is that China has made significant progress in allowingits currency to appreciate against the dollar of late — making Chinese imports relatively moreexpensive and American exports relatively more competitive. A dollar currently buys about 6.25 renminbi, down from about 6.8 when Mr. Obama took office.
Administration officials have urged China to do more in frequent behind-the-scenes negotiations: to allow further currency appreciation, to protect American companies’ intellectual property, toreform its financial system, to even the playing field for companies that might want to invest inChina and many other issues.
The administration has also filed new trade cases against China at the World Trade Organization, and set up a trade task force to ensure all countries are playing by the rules.
They have also praised the country for the progress it has made. “I think the cumulative effect ofwhat China has done on the exchange rate side is, and the external side, is very significant andvery promising,” Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, said this year.
Congress has pushed a more aggressive approach, repeatedly putting forward bipartisan bills topunish countries, like China, that manipulate their currencies.
“The jig is up, it’s time to stop gaming the system or face severe consequences,” Senator CharlesE. Schumer, Democrat of New York, said in a statement last year, co-sponsoring a bill that focusedon Beijing. “China’s history of half-truths and broken promises on currency makes passing thislegislation an economic imperative.”
Second, economic and foreign-policy experts argue that taking more aggressive actions againstChina might not result in a stronger American economy — instead pitting the two countriesagainst each other.
“In the worst case, a Romney decision to go to the brink with Beijing on the value of its currencywould result in a mutually damaging trade war that slowed economic growth and increasedunemployment in both countries and caused inflation and higher interest rates in the UnitedStates,” Richard C. Bush III of the Brookings Institution wrote in a recent analysis.
Labeling China a currency manipulator would not automatically put in place tariffs, sanctions orother trade actions. But the measure would signal the United States’ intention to take suchmeasures — and China might take countervailing ones in turn. Beijing might stop grantingcontracts to American companies, like General Electric or Boeing, for instance. It might issue leviesor tariffs itself.
Antagonizing China would threaten the trade relationship with one of the United States’ fastest-growing export markets, economists note. Chinese investment in the United States has also beenincreasing.
“Today China is a minor U.S. employer compared to longtime foreign investors such as Germanyor Japan, but the potential for Chinese investment-led job creation is tremendous,” concluded areport released last month by the Rhodium Group, a research firm in New York. “If investmentfrom China remains on track, Chinese firms will employ 200,000 to 400,000 Americans by 2020,” up from about 27,000 today.
More broadly, if the United States leveled sanctions or tariffs against China, other low-wagecountries — in many cases, countries that also engage in currency manipulation — might fill itsvoid, economists said.
“Smaller U.S. trade deficits with China, offset by larger bilateral deficits with other countries, cannotbe expected to provide material job growth,” concluded recent research by the Federal ReserveBank of St. Louis.
On top of any economic concerns come pressing foreign-policy concerns. Designating China as acurrency manipulator might cast a shadow on relations with the Asian power.
For months, Chinese officials have quietly telegraphed their displeasure at the idea that a newadministration might brand them as a manipulator.
At the International Monetary Fund-World Bank meetings in Tokyo this month, Yi Gang, deputygovernor of the People’s Bank of China, made a point of noting the country’s progress — thecountry’s current account surplus has fallen to 2.1 percent of economic output from 10.1 percentin 2007, he said, for instance.
“This has been primarily driven by structural factors, including the substantial appreciation of thereal exchange rate,” Mr. Yi said. “In the face of the uncertain global environment, the Chinesegovernment will continue to take effective measures to maintain growth stability and acceleratethe restructuring of the economy.”
华盛顿——周一晚上的总统竞选辩论中，共和党候选人米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)重申了他将把中国列为货币操纵国、并要重新平衡两国贸易关系的诺言。
“年复一年，我不断看到公司倒闭，人们丢了工作，这是因为中国没有遵循同样的规则，包括在某种程度上人为地降低本国货币的价值，”罗姆尼说。
但经济和外交政策专家说，正式宣布中国是货币操纵国可能会带来副作用。最糟糕的情况下，会引发一场贸易战，导致美国对中国的出口减少，而且中国的进口产品会更贵。
华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute of International Economics)的阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Arvind Subramanian)说，“那种做法在经济上的可信度很低。另外，在中国新领导层刚形成，这边的新政府刚上台的时候，那样做会是一种公然的挑衅。”
在与奥巴马总统的竞选辩论中，罗姆尼被问到出现贸易战的可能性，他回答说贸易战已经在进行中了。“这是场无声的战争，而且他们正在获胜，”他说。“我们不能就这样投降，眼看着工作岗位流失。”
即使他们不直说，大部分美国官员都认为中国在操控人民币价值，以帮助中国的经济。
财政部(Treasury Department)在最近向国会提交的一年两次的关于美国主要贸易伙伴的外汇和经济政策报告中称，在人民币升值问题上，中国“顶住了非常强大的市场压力”，而且人民币的“实际有效汇率表现出长期的、大幅的低估。”
然而自1994年以来，由于各种经济和战略原因，克林顿政府、布什政府、以及奥巴马政府都拒绝正式地把中国列为货币操纵国。
对奥巴马政府来说，一个原因是，最近中国在允许人民币对美元升值上已有显著的进步，使中国进口产品变得相对较贵，而美国出口产品则具有相对较大的竞争力。现在1美元可以兑换6.25元人民币，低于奥巴马上台时的6.8元。
政府官员通过频繁的幕后谈判，多次督促中国做出更多的努力：允许人民币进一步升值、保护美国公司的知识产权、改革自己的金融体系、公平对待那些可能希望到中国投资的公司，以及很多其他问题。
奥巴马政府还向世界贸易组织提交了针对中国的新贸易投诉，并成立了一个专门负责贸易事务的小组来确保各国都按规则行事。
奥巴马政府也表扬了中国的进步。财政部长蒂莫西·F·盖特纳(Timothy F. Geithner)今年说，“我认为，中国在汇率方面及在对外方面所做努力的累计效应是非常显著、也非常有前景的”。
国会努力推出更强硬的措施，不断提交两党议案来惩罚像中国这样操纵本国货币的国家。
纽约民主党议员查尔斯·E.·舒默(Charles E. Schumer)是去年一个针对中国议案的共同发起人之一，他在一份声明中说，“把戏该结束了，到了制止（他们）钻空子、否则（让他们）面临严重后果的时候了。中国在货币问题上一直半真半假，不守诺言，因此通过这条法案在经济上是当务之急。”
经济和外交政策专家称，另一个原因是，对中国采取更强硬的行动或许并不会使美国经济变得更强，却会使这两个国家对峙。
布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的理查德·C.·布什三世(Richard C. Bush III)在最近的一次分析中写道，“最坏的情况是，罗姆尼决定在汇率问题上与北京一决雌雄，从而引发一场对两败俱伤的贸易战，导致两国经济增长放缓、失业率上升，而且会给美国造成通货膨胀和更高的利率”。
将中国列为货币操纵国并不会自动启动关税、制裁或者其他贸易行动。但这一举动却能表明美国将采取这些措施的意图，而中国反过来可能会采取报复措施。北京也许会停止批准与诸如通用电气 (General Electric)或波音(Boeing)这样的美国公司的合同。中国自己也可能启动课税或关税。
经济学家指出，激怒中国将威胁到美国与其增长最快的出口市场之一之间的贸易关系。中国在美国的投资也一直在增长。
纽约一家研究公司荣鼎咨询(Rhodium Group)在上个月发布的一份报告结尾这样写道，“与外国长期投资者比如德国或日本相比，现在中国在美国还是一个小雇主，但中国投资所能创造的就业机会的潜力巨大。如果来自中国的投资按预期增长，中国公司将在2020年雇用20万至40万美国人”，目前中国在美投资雇用的劳动力人数为2.7万。
更广地说，如果美国针对中国采取制裁或征收关税，其他一些低收入国家（不少这些国家也从事货币操纵）可能会来填补市场空缺，经济学家称。
圣路易斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)在最近一份研究中总结写道，“更低的美国对华贸易赤字，由于被与其他国家更高的双边贸易赤字所抵消，并不能提供人们所期待的实质性就业增长”。
除了经济顾虑之外，还有不容忽视的外交政策顾虑。把中国列为货币操纵国可能会给中美关系带来阴影。
几个月来，中国官员已经暗地流露出对新美国政府可能会给他们贴上操纵国标签的想法的不满。
本月国际货币基金组织和世界银行全体会议在东京举行，会上中国人民银行副行长易纲发言，特别强调了中国做出的进步。他说，比如，中国的经常账户盈余已经从2007年占经济产量的10.1%降至目前的2.1%。
易纲指出，“这主要是由结构因素驱动的，包括实际汇率较大幅度的升值。面对全球经济的不确定性，中国政府将继续采取有效措施，稳定经济增长，加快转变经济增长方式。”
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