德国总理默克尔在政治舞台的重要性
LOOK around Europe, and one leader stands above all the rest:Angela Merkel.In France Francisco Hollande has given up thepresence that his country leads the
continent. David Cameron,triumphantly re-elected, is turning Britain into little
England.Matte Renzi is preoccupied with Italy's comatose economy.
环顾欧洲，在各国领导人中，安格拉·默克尔一峰高耸。奥朗德已然放弃了法国引领欧洲大陆的主张，再次胜选的卡梅伦正在把大不列颠变成小英格兰，伦齐一门心思都用在了意大利奄奄一息的经济上面。
By contrast, in her ten years in office, Mrs Merkel has grown taller with
every upheaval. In the debtcrisis, she began as a ditherer but in the end held
the euro zone together; over Ukraine, shecorralled Europeans into imposing
sanctions on Russia (its president, Vladimir Putin, thinks she isthe only
European leader worth talking to); and over migration she has boldly upheld
Europeanvalues, almost alone in her commitment to welcoming refugees.
相比之下，在她执政的这十年中，每逢动荡，默克尔都要长高一些。在债务危机中，一开始，她还是是犹豫不决者，但最终却将欧元区团结在了一起;在乌克兰问题上，她欧洲人抱起团来对俄罗斯实施了制裁(俄总统普京认为，她是唯一一位值得对话的欧洲领导人);在移民问题上，她勇敢地坚守了欧洲价值观，匹马单枪地做出了欢迎难民的承诺。
It has become fashionable to see this as a progression from prudence and
predominance torashness and calamity. Critics assert that, with her welcoming
attitude to asylum-seekers, MrsMerkel has caused a flood that will both wreck
Europe and, long before, also bring about her ownpolitical demise. Both
arguments are wrong, as well as profoundly unfair. Mrs Merkel is moreformidable
than many assume. And that is just as well: given the European Union's
manychallenges, she is more than ever the indispensable European.
将此视为是一个从谨慎和卓越到鲁莽和灾难的演变已经成为时尚。批评者断言，由于她对难民的欢迎态度，默克尔带来了一场将同时摧毁欧洲和她的政治生命的洪水。这两种观点既是非常不公平的，也是错误的。默克尔不仅比众人想象的还要强大;而且，鉴于欧盟所面临的众多挑战，她比以往更是一位不可或缺的欧洲人。
Why Mutti matters
为什么说大妈至关重要
Mrs Merkel's predominance in part reflects the importance of Germany—the
EU's largest economyand its mightiest exporter, with sound public finances and
historically low unemployment. She isalso the longest-serving leader in the
EU.
默克尔的一峰高耸部分地反映了德国，这个有着有着牢固的公共财政和史上最低失业率的欧盟最大经济体和最强大出口国的重要性。她还是欧盟中服务时间最长的领导人。
Her personal qualities count for much, too. She has defended Germany's
interests without losingsight of Europe's; she has risked German money to save
the euro, while keeping septicemicGermans onside; and she has earned the respect
of her fellow leaders even after bruising fightswith them. Most impressively
(and alone among center-right leaders in Europe), she has done thiswithout
pandering to anti-EU and anti-immigrant populists. For all the EU's flaws, she
does nottreat it as a punchbag, but rather as a pillar of peace and
prosperity.
她的个人品质也起了很大的作用。她在没有忽视欧洲利益的前提下保护了德国的利益;她在拿德国的钱冒险去拯救欧元的同时，也让心存疑虑的德国人没有逾越雷池一步;她赢得了其他领导人的尊重，即便是在同他们有过激烈的争吵之后。给人印象最深的一点(在欧洲的中右翼领导人中只有她自己如此)是，她是在没有取悦反对欧盟和反对移民的民粹主义者的前提下做到这一点的。尽管欧盟有着这样和那样的缺陷，她也没有把它当成是一个出气筒，而是把它看做是和平与繁荣的一块基石。
Mrs Merkel is far from perfect. She is not given to great oratory or grand
visions. She can be botha political chameleon who adopts left-wing policies to
occupy the center-ground, and a scorpionwho quietly eliminates potential rivals.
Her natural caution has given rise to a German neologism,merkeln (“to merkel”,
or put off big decisions). Her timidity in handling the euro's woesdeepened the
crisis unnecessarily; she has spurned the risk-sharing that the euro area needs
tothrive.
默克尔还远非完美。她生来就不会长篇大论，也没有得到高瞻远瞩的能力。在政治上，她可以同时是一条采纳中左翼政策以占领中间派阵地的变色龙和一只悄悄地消灭潜在对手的蝎子。她的这种天生谨慎给德语带来了一个新名词——merkeln(推迟重大决定)。她在处理欧元危机中的谨小慎微不必要地加深了危机;她抛弃了欧元区繁荣兴旺所需要的风险共担。
Ironically it is boldness, not timidity, that has brought Mrs Merkel the
greatest challenge of hertime in office. Her staunch refusal to place an upper
limit on the number of refugees that Germanycan absorb has caused growing
consternation at home and criticism abroad. As Germanmunicipalities protest, her
political allies are denouncing her and eastern European countries areaccusing
her of “moral imperialism”. With Multidimensional fading, there is even talk of
her losingpower.
具有讽刺意味的是，正是这种大胆而不是谨慎给默克尔带来了执政期间最大的挑战。她对于给德国能够接收的难民数量设置上限的严词拒绝引发了国内日渐严重的恐慌和国外的批评。由于一些德国城市的抗议，她的政治对手正在诋毁她，东欧各国也在指责她的“道德帝国主义”。随着欢迎文化的退潮，甚至出现了她将被迫下台的说法。
The doubts are overblown. Critics are wrong to assume that Mrs Merkel is
about to be toppled.Grumbling aside, she remains the dominant figure of her
Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Arecent poll found that 82% of CDU members
approve of her leadership and 81% want her to runfor a fourth term as chancellor
at the election due in 2017. The electoral maths favors anotherCDU-led
government. Mrs Merkel is unlikely to go unless she chooses to.
这些担忧未免过虑了。认为默克尔会被掀翻的批评者错了。把各种抱怨之声放在一边，她仍然是她的基民盟的主导人物。一份最新民调发现，在基民盟成员中，82%的人赞同她的领导，81%的人希望她在2017年的大选中竞选第四个总理任期。选举数据青睐的是由基民盟领导的另一个政府。默克尔不可能去领导这个政府，除非她选择这样做。
And the naysayers are wrong to suggest she has lost her way on migration.
Quite the opposite.During the crisis the Lutheran pastor's daughter has found a
forceful political and moral calling.Mrs Merkel did not cause the onrush of
migrants, as her critics maintain. The migrants werecoming anyway: she acted to
avert a humanitarian disaster. Fences will not hold back the flow.Mrs Merkel can
neither stop the wars that drive people out of their homes nor set the policies
ofthe countries they pass through. Her critics offer no plausible alternative.
Short of overturninginternational and European law, and watching refugees drown
or die of exposure, EU countriesmust process the claims of asylum-seekers. The
question is: will the process be orderly orchaotic?
另外，认为她在移民问题上迷失了方向的批评者也错了。事实恰恰相反。危机期间，这位路德会牧师的女儿找到了一种强大的政治和道德召唤。默克尔没有像她的批评者所坚称的那样带来移民洪水。移民是无论如何都要来的：她为了避免了一场人道主义灾难采取了行动。堤坝挡不住洪水，默克尔既不可能让使得人们背井离乡的战争停止，也无法给难民途经的国家设定政策。她的批评者没有拿出令人信服的替代方案。既然不能违背国际社会和欧洲的法律，又不能眼看着难民溺水而亡或者是死于日晒雨淋，欧盟国家就必须处理难民的请求。问题是：这个过程会是有序的?还是混乱的?
Under Mrs Merkel, a four-part policy is taking shape: unapologetic-ally
absorb refugees at home;share the burden across Europe and beyond; strengthen
controls and the processing of asylum-seekers at Europe's external borders; and
negotiate with transit countries.
在默克尔的领导下，一项从四个方面同时推进的政策正在成形：在国内，不道歉地接收难民;同欧洲各国以及欧洲以外的国家分担负担;在欧洲各国的内部边界，强化控制和处理;同难民途经的各个国家进行谈判。
This approach is principled and, in the long run, it is the only one that
can work. Of course itcomes with drawbacks and risks. There are likely to be
less-than-principled deals, particularly withTurkey: turning a blind eye to the
erosion of civil liberties and the disturbing election victory ofPresident Recep
Tayyip Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development (AK) party, and
otherconcessions, in the hope that he will agree to act as Europe's
gatekeeper.
这是一个原则鲜明的策略，而且，从长期来看，它是唯一能够发挥作用的策略。当然，这个策略本身还存在着各种缺陷和风险。不可能有原则再少一些的应对之策了，尤其是在与土耳其打交道上面：不能再抱着该国总统埃尔多安会同意充当欧洲守门员的侥幸心理，对侵犯公民自由的行为和他领导的执政党——正义和发展党令人不安的选举胜利和其他各种妥协让步视若无睹了。
And there is no denying that the mass influx of refugees is aggravating
many of Europe's otherlooming problems: it is fraying relations between Germany
and eastern European countries justwhen solidarity is vital to contain Russia's
aggression; it is adding to the burdens of Greece,already crushed by years of
austerity and never far from leaving the euro; it is bringing Brexit fromthe EU
closer, too, by giving voters more reasons to leave in Mr Cameron's promised
in/outreferendum; and it is stoking populism everywhere.
另一个不容否认的事实是，难民洪水正在加剧欧洲的其他一些迫在眉睫的问题：它在团结一心对遏制俄罗斯入侵起着至关重要作用的时刻正在离间德国与东欧各国的关系;它正在给已经被多年的紧缩所压垮并且永远也不会距离脱离欧元很远的希腊增添负担;它正在让英国距离脱离欧盟又近了一步，因为它给了选民更多的理由在卡梅伦所承诺的全民公决中选择离开而;它正在激起欧洲各地的民粹主义。
Stormy weather
天气恶劣
This is Europe's biggest crisis in a generation. If integration once seemed
inexorable, the pressingquestion now is how to stop the EU from fraying. Mrs
Merkel did not cause this grim reality, butshe is the continent's best hope for
dealing with it. It is in Europe's best interests to help thechancellor rather
than leave her to confront the crisis alone. After a decade in power,
politiciansusually retire, lose touch or are overthrown. But, without Mrs
Merkel, it is hard to see Europemastering its destructive forces.
这是欧洲在一代人时间中所遭遇的最大危机。如果说融合一度看上去不可阻挡，那么，当前的紧迫问题就是如何阻止欧盟分崩离析。默克尔没有造成这一严峻的事实，但是，她是欧洲大陆应对它的最佳希望。帮助她，而不是让她单枪匹马地去面对这场危机是欧洲的利益之所在。执政10年后，政客一般是退休、失去洞察力或是被推翻。但是，没有了默克尔，欧洲要想控制自身的各种破坏性力量就难了。
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