外媒看中国：中国政府如何营救股市！
导读：这篇经济学人的文章点评了中国政府营救股市的举措，并例举最近的研究分析利弊。本篇第一部分是该文章的双语阅读;
第二部分是经济方面重要的单词、词组解析，以及介绍如何考生如何将这篇文章中的词语和知识点运用到托福、雅思、GRE等作文考试中。
文章原文如下：
New research suggests it is debt, not frothy asset prices, that should
worry regulators most
新研究发现，最让监管者担心的是债务，而非膨胀的资产价格。
WHEN Chinese shares plunged earlier this month, the government tried
frantically to limit the damage. It pumped cash into the market, capped
short-selling and ordered share buy-backs. Although China was unusually heavy-handed, it was hardly the first country to try to bolster stock prices for
fear of the economic harm a crash could bring. Alan Greenspan, as chairman of
the Federal Reserve, famously created the “Greenspan put” by giving investors
the impression he would cut interest rates to stop stockmarket routs.
中国股市本月早些时候遭遇暴跌，政府疯狂扑救以控制损失。政府还向市场注入资金，限制卖空，号召股份回购。虽然这次中国实行了超乎寻常的严厉手段，但它绝不是第一个为避免崩溃带来的经济损失而努力稳住股价的国家。美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘早就发明了著名的“格林斯潘对策”，即给投资者造成他将降息的印象从而达到阻止股票崩盘的目的。
The underlying rationale for these interventions is an idea that until
recently received surprisingly little scrutiny—namely, that stockmarket busts
are very damaging for the economy. The link seems clear enough in the case of
the crash of 1929, which led in short order to the Depression. But it is also
easy to point to contrary examples. The bursting of America’s dotcom bubble in
2000 wiped out $5 trillion in market value, equivalent to half of GDP. Yet it
was followed by a shallow recession.
这些干预背后的依据是一个最近才受到审视的理论，即股市受挫对于经济具有非常大的杀伤力。1929年由于股市崩盘而立即导致了经济大萧条，这两者之间的关系显露无疑。但是想找到反例也易如反掌。美国2000年互联网泡沫的破裂导致五万亿美元的市值蒸发，相当于当时国内生产总值的一半。然而随之而来的仅仅是轻微的经济衰退。
Not all bubbles, it would appear, are equally bad. According to two new
papers*, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from
disastrous ones is debt. In many cases, though certainly not all, stockmarket
manias fall into the less worrying category.
如此看来，并非所有泡沫都同样恶劣。根据最新的两篇论文*，无伤大雅的市场热度和灾难性的市场膨胀，两者的关键区别在于债务。很多时候，股票市场的狂热属于不那么让人担忧的行列，但这不是绝对的。
【精美词语解析、运用】
plunge: fall suddenly and uncontrollably 骤降 (n. / v.)
类似的词还有： plumet (n. / v.), slump (n. / v.), downturn (只是下降，程度没有以上词严重)
frantically: 指的是狂热地，疯狂地，形容词是frantic。文中还出现了名词形式的疯狂、狂热frenzy，mania。They made
a frantic search for the missing child; Recently the frenzy for Apple products
emerged again after the company released some new features on their press
conference.
heavy-handed: 严厉的手段、重拳、重压。比如作文中写道教会对人民的反抗施以重压：The churches made
heavy-handed efforts to muzzle social protests.
bolster: bolster the price 就是我们中文中经常提到的提振价格，bolster这个词很好用，比如振奋信心bolster
someone’s confidence，这个词核心意思是support or strengthen。He wished to bolster up his
theories with hard data 他想用硬数据来支持自己的理论。
underlying rationale背后的原理、依据，这个词在GRE的analytical writing中好用上手。
damaging: 有害的。借此机会我们总结一下有害的单词，damaging, harmful, detrimental, unfavorable,
destructive, malign, adverse, unhealthy, undesirable, disatrous.
这些词可以在很多作文题目中帮我们说清立场，比如“政府对科研的管控是有害的” The government’s control over science is
detrimental; “逆境成长地更快“ People who are in adverse environment evolve at a faster
pace. “群龙无首对于一个队伍来说杀伤力巨大” Leaderless is extremely destructive to a team.
“模仿别人对自己的成长并无益处” Imitation turns out to be unfavorable to one’s own growth.
scrutiny: 审视、审查。“重新审查我们的审美观是有必要的” It is necessary to make a scrutiny once
again at our aesthetics.
in short order: 马上，立即。After the chaos the organization took actions in
short order. Lead in short order to 立即导致了…的发生
contrary examples: 反例。原文用的句子放在我们自己的作文里也很好用，可以作为我们划分两个观点的分水岭：It is also easy
to point to contrary examples.
the crucial variable that separates Element A from Element B is C:
这是一个很有用的句型，在分析性作文中我们可以用这句话指出A和B的不同点是C。在任何作文里，我们可以用这句话来表示我们要分情况讨论：“无所限制的科学发展和健康的科学发展之间的区别是对道德原则的遵守。”
A crucial variable that separates healthy science development from unguided ones
is the adherence to moral principles.
Writing for the National Bureau of Economic Research, Oscar Jorda, Moritz
Schularick and Alan Taylor examine bubbles in housing and equity markets over
the past 140 years. The most dangerous, they conclude, are housing bubbles
fuelled by credit booms. The least troublesome are equity bubbles that do not
rely on debt. Five years after the bursting of a debt-laden housing bubble, the
authors find, GDP per person is nearly 8% lower than after a “normal” recession
(ie, one that is not accompanied by a financial crisis). In contrast, five years
after a stockmarket crash, GDP per person is only 1% or so lower. If the stock
bubble comes alongside a big rise in debt, the damage to GDP per person is 4%.
The paper does not explain why housing bubbles are more costly, but a fair
inference is that, whereas equity investments tend to be concentrated among the
rich, plenty of people lower down the income ladder have wealth tied up in
housing.
在为美国国家经济研究局撰写论文中，Oscar Jorda，Moritz Schularick和Alan
Taylor检验了过去140年房屋和股票市场的泡沫。他们的结论是，最危险的是由信贷繁荣带来的房产泡沫，表现最好的是不依赖借债的股票泡沫。他们发现，债务累累的房屋泡沫破裂五年后，人均GDP比“正常的”经济衰退(比如不伴随着金融危机的衰退)后要低将近8%
。相较而言，股市崩盘五年后，人均GDP只下跌1%左右。如果股市泡沫同债务上升一同发生，人均GDP则要损失4%。该论文没有解释为什么房市泡沫代价最昂贵，但是合理的推论是，股票投资更加集中于富人中间，收入较低的人们大多将财富捆绑在房屋上。
That makes sense. Stockmarket routs typically harm the economy via the
“wealth effect”. When people see that their assets are worth substantially less
than before, they spend less, leading to weaker demand and, ultimately, weaker
investment. Debt can make this worse. Those who have borrowed to invest may be
forced to sell assets to avoid defaulting, further depressing prices and wealth.
Banks that have lent to investors or accepted shares as collateral will also
suffer losses. That forces them to rein in their lending, harming the economy
even more.
这很有道理。股市崩盘主要通过“财富效应”损害经济。当人们看到自己资产大幅缩水后，他们花费得就少了，需求也随之减少，最终投资减少。债务却能使其雪上加霜。贷款投资的人可能被迫出卖资产以避免违约，这更进一步得压低了价格和财富。给投资者贷款或者接受股票作为抵押物的银行也会蒙受损失。于是银行不得不拉紧钱袋，这会让经济遭受更大的损害。
In a paper for the Centre for Economic Policy Research, Markus Brunnermeier
and Isabel Schnabel take an even longer view, examining 400 years of asset-price
bubbles. Be it tulips, land, housing, derivatives or shares, they find that the
consequences of a bursting bubble depend less on the type of asset than on how
it is financed. High leverage is the telltale sign of trouble.
在为美国国家经济研究局的经济政策研究的论文中，Markus Brunnermeier和Isabel
Schnabel看得更长远，他们检验了过去四百年的资产价格泡沫。他们发现，无论是郁金香、土地、房产、金融衍生品还是股票的泡沫，破碎后的结果更多取决于融资方式而不是资产类型。资产负债率高是问题的明显特征。
What does this mean for central banks? Before the financial crisis, the
debate boiled down to “leaning versus cleaning”. Activist sorts argued that the
monetary guardians should lean against the wind by raising interest rates when
asset bubbles grew. The opposing camp, exemplified by Mr Greenspan, countered
that it was too difficult to spot bubbles in advance and too costly to tighten
monetary policy erroneously, so it was best to wait for them to burst before
cutting rates to help clean up the mess.
这对央行意味着什么?金融危机前，讨论的核心是“逆势操作还是泡沫破碎后的清扫”。激进派认为货币监控者在泡沫膨胀的时候应当加息逆行操作。而以格林斯潘为代表的反对派则认为提前鉴别泡沫过于困难，若错误地收紧货币政策则后果严重，所以最好在泡沫破裂后再降息清理残局。
fuel: cause… to burn more intensely 助长、激化。这个词在作文中可以轻松运用：由第三次工业革命带来的科技创新
technology innovation fuelled by the Third Industrial Revolution;
由手机组件的成本降低而扩大了手机普及率 the growing popularity of cellphone fuelled by the lower
cost of its parts. 由于电脑知识的普及而导致的互联网繁荣 The internet boom fuelled by the
widespread computer knowledge。
the bursting of a bubble: 泡沫的破碎。如今“泡沫”这个词在经济学里非常火热，房产泡沫 housing bubble,
股市泡沫 stockmarket bubble, 信贷泡沫 credit bubble。
debt-laden: 非常生动形象的“负债累累”一词。laden表示布满…， 我们可以活用这个词：他的评论意味深长 His comments
were laden with deep meaning;油脂多多的一餐 a fat-laden meal; 烟雾缭绕 smoke-laden air;
以科技装备的军队 technology-laden military.
lower down the income ladder: 收入阶层低一点的，说法很形象，会为作文加分哦。社会底层的人 people lower
down the social ladder; The social ladder is like Mount Everest: Lots of people
try to climb, but few reach the top.
Wealth
effect：就像文中解释的一样，是人们对于财富的信心最终影响花费习惯。人们看到自己在股市中的钱大幅缩水后，认为自己不如以前富有，便开始节省开支，不愿消费，其实人们投在股市里的钱即使增值，他们也很可能用来继续投资，而不是消费，但是因为信心更足，人们消费开始放宽松，进一步刺激经济增长，这就是财富效应。如果你在某篇作文里需要用“刺激经济增长的最重要一步是让国民有信心”，那么你可以用上Wealth
effect来impress考官。
depress: 压制 depress prices and wealth，反义词 encourage, spur,
stimulate。刺激经济一揽子方案 stimulus package。
high leverage: leverage
杠杆效应、企业负债率，即企业的负债以期望企业的效益超出借债的成本。如果企业负债率高，最终权益效益低于借债的成本，那企业面临着高风险。
telltale sign：顾名思义就是一眼能看出来的信号。
boil down to: 归根结底，归结于。在作文开头，我们有时需要解析一下作文考题，指出考题的根本含义是什么，就可以用这个词组。The
debate of “should rich countries pay more for environmental damage” boiled down
to the argument if rich countries should carry more responsibilities.
tighten monetary policy: 收紧货币政策;放宽货币政策： loosen monetary policy
Shifting the focus to debt changes the terms of the debate. As Frederic
Mishkin of Columbia University has written, policymakers must distinguish
between bubbles inflated purely by exuberance and those pumped up by debt. The
latter are also easier to identify: credit issuance is abnormally fast and
underwriting standards slip. In such circumstances, regardless of the level of
asset prices, the case for intervention is strong.
关注点转移到债务上面，这让整个辩论发生了变化。正如哥伦比亚大学的Frederic
Mishkin所写的，政策制定者必须辨别由市场热情而催生的泡沫和由债务导致的泡沫。后者更容易辨别：信贷发行异常便捷，贷款审批的标准下降。这种情况下，无论资产价格的程度如何，都应当进行干预。
That still leaves the question of what central banks should do after a
stockmarket bubble has burst. Those that come to the rescue of collapsing
markets are stoking moral hazard. Investors, believing that the central bank
will always provide a backstop, are more likely to take unwarranted risks, as
American ones did in response to the Greenspan put. Nevertheless, given that
stockmarket bubbles accompanied by lots of debt, as in China, can cause severe
economic damage, letting them burst without any succour is not a good option
either.
央行在股市泡沫破碎后应当如何行动的问题仍然悬而未解。营救崩溃中的市场的央行让道德风险更进一步激化。相信央行会提供后盾的投资者则更容易接受不合理的风险，就像美国人对格林斯潘对策做出的反应一样。尽管如此，因为股市泡沫伴随大量债款，例如中国的股市，可以让经济严重受挫，所以不实施任何救助让泡沫自行破裂也并不是一个好的选择。
Over to the finance minister
交给财长
One option is to boost the broader economy through a spurt in government
spending. Direct intervention to prevent the stockmarket from falling is more
problematic, since it gums up price signals, preventing overvalued shares from
returning to more reasonable levels. Halting stocks from trading, as seen
recently with nearly half of listed Chinese companies, does not eliminate the
problem but simply masks it. It was as if America had enacted a moratorium on
selling homes after the subprime crisis.
有一个更大范围内振兴经济的方法，即政府消费的骤增。直接干预股市的崩盘更加问题重重，因为这会扰乱价格信号，被高估的股票无法返回到正常的水平上。不让股票交易，正如股市上将近一半的中国公司最近所经历的那样，仅仅是掩藏事实，而并没有解决问题，假同美国在次贷危机之后出台停止售房的法令一样。
Intriguingly, China’s interventions did put one strand of academic theory
into practice. Roger Farmer of UCLA has argued that central banks should buy
stocks to keep falling markets at reasonable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios. The
Chinese central bank did this by providing cash to a stock-buying fund.
Crucially, Mr Farmer says that central banks should then sell their holdings
when PE ratios climb too high. That sounds like wishful thinking. In China as in
other countries, the central bank often seems more intent on laying a floor for
stocks than erecting a ceiling.
有趣的是，中国的干预确实将一派学术理论运用到实践中。加州大学洛杉矶分校的Roger
Farmer曾说央行应当购买股票以保证下滑的市场处于合理的市盈率上。中国央行将资金注入到一个股票购买基金中，也做到了这一点。Farmer先生强调，至关重要的一步是央行会在PE比率攀爬过高的时候出售手中的股票。这听起来过于一厢情愿。因为如同其他国家一样，中国的央行更倾向于为股票设置下限而非上限。
【精美词汇解析、运用】
inflate/pump: 记得我们在上一篇学得fuel吗?这两个词在这种语境下可以作为fuel的替换词，因为三个词都有催生的意思。
exuberance: 热情、生机勃勃，这是一个非常正面的词，youthful exuberance
年轻有生机。在形容市场的热情的时候，这个词和frenzy, mania有类似的意思，但程度没有那么强烈。
underwriting standard: 指贷款条件。
stoke: 是真正的“火上浇油”的意思： add coal or other solid fuel to a fire; encourage or
incite. 肯德基的肉料供应又被发现了新问题，这让民众的怒火更胜。The meat supply for KFC was found problematic
once again, which stoked the public’s anger.
moral hazard: 道德风险。企业的经营不应当走在道德风险的边缘上 Corporations should not place their
operations on the verge of moral hazard.
spurt: 井喷。
halt: 停止，比stop
更加形象，更有“骤然停止”的意思。curb是一个类似的词，本意是路边的石头或者马路牙子，于是有了控制的意思(有了马路牙子汽车、马车就不能上去横冲直撞)，curb
spending，Chinese government will curb its support for the stockmarket.
subprime crisis: 次贷危机，是2008年金融危机的起因。
wishful thinking: 这个词很有意思，是指想得很美好，所以潜台词就是想得太美、一厢情愿、事实往往没有这么美好。除了文中的用法，还可以用来自嘲：I told myself I
would make a great new year resolution, I hope it is not wishful thinking.
我告诉自己我要新年新气象，但我希望这不只是口头上说说好听。
laying a floor, erect a
ceiling：这是英语中对上限下限一个很形象的说法。比如一个销售人员说“我的工资是靠佣金的，我能销售多少就能赚多少，工资没有上限”就是There is no
ceiling on my earnings.
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