2013年中国出境游9大重要发展
In the year that just ended, China has consolidated its position as the No.1 global tourism source market in terms of both number of trips and money spent on international travel. There have at the same time been further profound changes in the framework of outbound travel from Mainland China and in the behaviour of the travellers themselves.在刚刚结束的一年中，无论是从游客数量还是从国际旅游开支上来看，中国都巩固了其作为全球最大旅游客源市场的地位。同时，在中国大陆出境游框架以及游客自身行为方面出现了一些深远的变化。
Here is a look back at nine important developments in China’s outbound tourism in the year 2013:
下面我们一起来回顾一下2013年中国出境游的九大重要发展：
1. Quantitative growth
2. New push factor pollution
3. New push factor overcrowding
4. Encouragement by new Chinese Government
5. Visa policy dominos starting to fall
6. Move towards more self-organised trips
7. Move towards new destinations
8. Chinese investors shopping spree
9. Major players enter the scene
1. Quantitative growth continued in 2013. With more than 72 million border crossings reported for the first nine months of 2013 alone, the total number will probably land somewhere between the 95 million my institute COTRI forecast at the beginning of 2013 and the 98 million CTA (China Tourism Academy) recently predicted. Spending will have jumped to more than 120 billion US$, high above the 80something billion US$ spent by Germans and US-Americans respectively. Chinese statistics stay however as opaque as ever, who and what exactly is included or excluded in these numbers remains a secret. In any case the importance of the Chinese source market for an increasing number of destinations is not to be doubted, even if you allow some margin of error in the numbers.
1. 2013年出境游人数继续增长。据报道，单是2013年前9个月出境旅游就超过7,200万人次，全年的出境游客数量将可能在9,500万到9,800万之间，前者是我所在的中国出境游研究所（COTRI）在2013年初所做的预测，后者则是中国旅游研究院（China Tourism Academy，简称CTA）最近的预测数据。旅游支出将上涨，突破1,200亿美元，高于德国和美国游客的花销，这两国游客分别支出了约800亿美元。不过，中国的统计数字向来缺乏透明度，我们仍不清楚：这些数字中究竟哪些人以及哪些花费被计入其中，哪些又被排除在外。但无论就哪一方面来说，就算数字有一定的偏差，中国客源市场对越来越多的旅游目的地而言意义均非同小可，这点毋庸置疑。
2. Pollution has been worsening for many years in China, but 2013 moved air pollution from the level of irritating to the level of plainly unbearable. Particulate matter intensities never seen before on this planet are no longer just a problem of Northeast and North China, in recent months East and South China also suffered heavily. In October, in Harbin the police officially declared that they would not fine motorists for crossing a red light as the traffic lights could not be seen anymore in the smog and in December Shanghai and Xian reported health-threatening air for days on end. In Hong Kong big posters showing the Hong Kong island skyline in the sun, they had to be erected on the Kowloon side to give Mainland visitors a background for the obligatory photo which on most days of the year is no longer possible to have, the real skyline across the harbour being barely visible. Together with food scandals and other environmental problems, pollution has developed into a major push factor, driving former domestic tourists out of their country whenever they can afford it.
2. 多年来中国的环境污染一直在不断恶化，但2013年的空气污染达到了简直不堪忍受的程度。可吸入颗粒浓度之高在地球上前所未有，而这不再仅仅是令东北和华北地区头痛的问题了，最近几个月，华东和华南地区也深受其害。去年10月，哈尔滨警察正式宣布不再对闯红灯的汽车司机处以罚款，因为雾霾天里已看不到交通灯了；去年12月，上海和西安报道，出现了连续多日的空气污染，对身体健康构成威胁。在香港，一系列大型海报刻画了阳光下的港岛轮廓，这些海报不得不竖立在九龙一侧好让大陆游客们了解这必须一睹的景象——一年中大多数时间里都不复得见，而海港上空真正的天际线几乎难以察觉。与食品安全丑闻和其他环境问题一起，污染已经逐渐成为一个主要的推动因素，驱使以前选择国内景区的游客一旦经济条件允许就会毫不犹豫地踏出国门。
3. A second new push factor concerns overcrowding. The October 2013 Golden Week of collective holidays was even by the official Chinese media criticised as a “Golden Mess”. The railway system alone had to carry 70 million people around the country in a single week. Ignoring regulations in the new tourism law, many sights, including the Forbidden City in Beijing, sold many more tickets than there carrying capacity should allow them and highways turned into giant parking lots. Even outside this period of travel madness, natural and man-made attractions suffer from overcrowding, again pushing Chinese tourists more and more to destinations beyond the border – in some cases however only to meet the same Chinese crowds in Phuket or on Jeju Island.
3. 新出现的第二个推动因素与拥挤有关。2013年的十一黄金周甚至被中国官方媒体批评为“乱作一团的黄金周”。单是铁路系统就不得不于一周之内在全国各地发送7,000万客流。无视新《旅游法》中的规定，包括北京故宫在内的许多景点都一味地出售门票，远远超过了其承载能力。高速公路也变成了一个个大停车场。甚至避开这段出游高峰，自然和人文景区的接待能力也不堪重负，因而再一次将中国游客进一步推向国外——不过在有些情况下不过是换个地点（如普吉岛或济州岛）邂逅同样的中国游客潮。
4. The Chinese government policy changed dramatically in 2013, with the new leadership for the first time explicitly supporting Chinese outbound tourism in front of international audiences. The new tourism law, which came into effect on October 1st, further changed the rules of the game by trying to end the worst practices of subsidising below-cost package tour offers with income from forced shopping and poor quality services. In many destinations the number of package tour arrivals fell in the last quarter of 2013 as a result, with longer staying individual visitors making up most of the losses. New Zealand for instance suffered in October and November 2013, as arrival numbers dropped by 12% and 16% YoY respectively, with short-stay holiday group visas down by 41 per cent. However, long-stay group holiday visas were up 14 per cent and individual visitor visas up by 70 per cent.
4. 2013年中国政府做出了巨大政策调整，新一届领导班子首次在国际观众面前明确支持中国的出境旅游。2013年10月1日生效的新旅游法，取缔了用强制消费和劣质服务贴补低于成本价的旅行团费的恶劣做法，从而进一步改变了游戏规则。因此，2013年最后一季度，许多旅游目的地的接团数量出现下降，而逗留时间更长的散客弥补了大部分损失。例如，去年的十月和十一月，新西兰就大受影响，接团数量分别同比下降12%和16%，短期团体旅游签证减少了41%。不过，长期团体旅游签证增加了14%，个人旅游签证更是猛增70%。
5. For a long time security concerns triumphed over the demands of the tourism industry to lower the barriers of entry for Chinese visitors. 2013 witnessed the first dominos falling with some destinations like the holiday island republics Maldives, Seychelles and Mauritius entering into visa waiver agreements with China, Thailand followed in the last days of the year. About 40 countries and regions mostly in Africa and South-East Asia already offer visa on arrival for Chinese, bigger countries including UK and Germany started to differentiate between regular visitors and first-time visa applicants or to issue residence permits for investors.
5. 很长一段时间以来，在降低中国游客的入境门槛方面，安全考虑压倒旅游业需求而占了上风。2013年见证了第一批多米诺骨牌的倒下：假日岛共和国马尔代夫、塞舌尔和毛里求斯与中国达成了免签证协议；年末最后几天泰国也追随加入了这一行列。大约40个国家和地区（主要在非洲和东南亚）为中国旅客提供落地签证，而更大一点的国家（包括英国和德国在内）则开始区别对待常旅客和首次申请签证的人，或者为投资者颁发居留许可。
6. Off-the-shelf package tours became decisively unfashionable in 2013, with self-organised trips or customised tours organised by tour operators gaining ground. Depending on one’s definition and the kind of destination, on average about a third of the market is no longer hostage to the tour operator and the tour guide. Moreover many of the package tour members feel bad about doing the less prestigious thing, another change accelerating in the last year.
6. 2013年，现成的跟团游产品已变得过时，自助游或者旅行社提供的定制游开始占领市场。取决于定义和目的地类型，通常大约三分之一的市场已经不再寻求旅行社和导游帮忙了。此外，许多跟团游客对于一些意义不大的行程安排感到不满，这一变化在去年也出现了加速发展。
7. Exotic location have gained popularity, for instance in 2012 Nepal had already recorded 71,861 Chinese tourist arrivals, among whom 64,275, almost 90%, were first time visitors. This trend is witnessed not only by countries less in the limelight of Chinese travel but also by smaller cities within popular destination countries. To gain prestige, a trip to Phuket or to Paris is not enough anymore among more experienced travellers.
7. 充满异国风情的地方受到欢迎。例如，2012年尼泊尔接待了71,861名中国游客，其中64,275人是首次前来，几乎占到了九成比例。见证了这一趋势的不仅有对中国游客而言较冷门的国家，还有热门国度里的一些较小城市。在资深旅行者当中，普吉岛或巴黎之行已不足以赢来欣羡的目光。
8. If outbound travel can be seen as an investment in personal self-esteem and social capital within one’s own peer group, Chinese investors take the term more and more literally. Solid numbers are hard to come by, but invest they have. 2013 certainly witnessed the highest ever level of Chinese outbound investment into real estate, including tourism infrastructure. The case of the billionaire tea trader Lam Kok (Hao Lin), who crashed just before Christmas together with his son in a helicopter accident in France on the day of celebrating the 40 million US$ acquisition of a 16th century Bordeaux chateau and vineyard, brought the activities of Chinese investors to the attention of the world press. The chateau was supposed to be turned into a resort offering the best wines and teas in the world.
8. 如果出境游可以被视为在“小伙伴”中间对个人自尊以及社交资本进行的一种投资，那么中国人对“投资”的理解越来越接近其本义。很难获得坚实的数字，但他们的确在大量买进。2013年，中国人的境外房地产投资无疑达到了有史以来的最高水平，其中包括对旅游基础设施的投资。圣诞节前夕，中国茶叶大亨、亿万富翁郝琳斥资4,000万美元收购了波尔多地区一个16世纪的酒庄和葡萄园，在当日的庆祝活动上他与儿子搭乘直升机视察酒庄不幸坠机身亡。此事使得全球媒体关注中国投资者的一举一动。该酒庄本来计划被打造成一个旅游胜地，提供全球最好的葡萄酒和茶叶。
9. 2013 finally witnessed the entry of many major players who had been watching the market before. International hotel groups, cruise ship companies, credit card issuers and other companies which are traditionally not directly involved in providing tourism services all started to take serious money into their hands to create “China-centric” offers for Chinese overseas travellers, many of which will see the light of day in 2014. Chinese companies were not to be left behind, with UnionPay credit cards starting to push into the market beyond the traditional shops frequented by Chinese tourists and Maotai liquor acquired a distribution network in Europe for the expressed purpose of selling not to European customers but to the Chinese on the move abroad.
9. 最后，2013年许多一直驻足观望的商业巨头纷纷参与进来。国际酒店集团、邮轮公司、信用卡发卡机构以及其他通常不直接参与提供旅游服务的公司都开始认真对待这些送上门的钱，为海外中国游客（2014年会新增一大批）提供“以中国为中心”的服务。中国公司也不甘落后，在中国游客经常光顾的传统店铺之外，银联信用卡开始进军新市场；茅台酒在欧洲取得了一个分销网络，声称瞄准的不是欧洲顾客而是不断涌出国门的中国消费者。
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