美国取消与埃及的联合军演(2/2)
概述：埃及可能愿意承担失去美国援助的风险，但并不想破坏与美方的关系。Hints:
Tarek Radwan
Rafik Hariri Center
Egypt / Egyptian
Abdel Fattah al-Sissi /Sissi
Daniel Serwer
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http://t1.g.hjfile.cn/listen/201308/201308240940075252802.mp3Tarek Radwan, associate director for research at Washington's Rafik Hariri Center, calls that a positive step. But he says the United States' ability to affect the behavior of Egypt's armed forces is fading.
"Because the engagement with Egypt has been so limited and so narrowly focused, we have very few options, and thereby have very little influence over what's going to happen now. The last semblance of assertive action that we can take is to, in fact, suspend military aid."
Egypt's military leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, was probably willing to risk losing the U.S. aid, according to Daniel Serwer, a scholar at Washington's Middle East Institute, because Egypt's neighbors are making much bigger donations.
"I think General Sissi, before this crackdown, must have calculated, 'I lose the American assistance.' And what he calculated was that this was an existential struggle between him and the Muslim Brotherhood, and that he had to do this in order to survive."
But Tarek Radwan says a stoppage of aid could have some impact. He does not believe the Egyptian military wants to jeopardize relations with Washington.
"The aid is not only about the money. It's about the relationship itself. It's about the ability to engage with the United States, and cutting that off would begin a sense of isolation that I don't think even the Egyptian military would be very comfortable with."
As the crisis continues in Egypt, Mr. Obama's policies are likely to evolve further.塔雷克•拉德万是华盛顿拉菲克•哈里里研究中心的副主任，他称那是积极有效的举措，但美国影响埃及军队的能力逐渐变弱了：“因为我们与埃及的联系十分有限并且只集中在极少的几个方面，所以我们选择余地不多，无法对未来的事态发展施加有力影响。我们最终能采取的看似武断的行动就是中止军事援助。”
丹尼尔•瑟沃尔是华盛顿中东研究所的学者，他说，因为埃及邻国将提供更多捐赠，所以埃及军事领袖塞西将军很有可能愿意承担失去美国援助的风险：“我想，塞西将军在这次制裁之前一定已经盘算过‘失去美国援助’的情况。他考虑的是，这是他和穆斯林兄弟会之间关乎存亡的斗争，为了生存他必须这么做。”
但塔雷克•拉德万表示停止援助会产生一定影响。他认为埃及军方不想破坏与美方的关系：“援助不仅仅关乎资金，还与两国关系本身息息相关。援助关系到与美国建立良好关系的能力，切断与美国的关系意味着被孤立。我认为埃及军方是不想被孤立的。”
随着埃及危机的发展，奥巴马总统的政策很可能也会进一步改变。
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