能源市场将有大改革
专家讨论能源市场供需关系变动的两大原因。
Hints:
OPEC
Chatham House
John Mitchell
主持：shenyubin
校对：cryforwhat
翻译&注解：cjsfight
答疑：赤_月
口语点评：Mornight
口语节目链接：http://bulo.hujiang.com/menu/2120/item/669831/http://t1.g.hjfile.cn/listen/201210/201210140604507039633.mp3The idea that supplies of natural gas could be running ahead of demand would have been inconceivable a few years back. Indeed, these new unconventional reserves are bringing about a transformation of the world energy market as profound as happened back in the 70s - that's when the cartel of oil-rich nations OPEC was formed, and oil prices increased sharply. And it isn't just the supply side that's changing,demand in the developed world certainly for oil is for the first time levelling off. That's according to a new report from the think tank Chatham House. One of its authors, John Mitchell, told me this is a time of great upheaval in the industry.
"I think there're two big changes underway. One is on the demand side. And we see this most clearly in the United States where the combination of high prices which go straight through to the consumers and strong policies on energy efficiency in vehicles guarantee a market for the manufactures of efficient cars and lorries and trucks andthe rest of it. They are the capacitor's role now. We have to think of the transformed market as one which is no longer reserved in the privileged monopoly of the oil industry. So that is a big change and that is replicated in Europe and Japan. And the effect is that, for the oil industry, those countries become no-growth markets that the oil consumption of those countries is likely to decline because the climate change policies we have now will prove to be inadequate. They will have to be strengthened as their inadequacy becomes more evident."几年前我们从未想过天然气会供过于求。但目前，这些新的非常规能源储备正给世界能源市场带来深远的转变，正如上世纪70年代，石油富足国家联盟成立石油输出国组织之时，油价飞速攀升。不仅仅供给方面在变化，发达国家对石油的需求也有史以来第一次趋平发展。这一数据来源于查塔姆研究所智囊团的一个最新报告。作者之一的约翰·米切尔告诉我这是产业发生巨大变动的时候。
“我认为目前有两点巨大变化。一方面是需求方。这一点最明显的例子在美国，美国的消费者深感油价飞涨，同时美国出台严格的机动车能效政策，这些都促使美国制造市场生产出高效能的轿车、卡车以及其他的。他们现在扮演了电容器的角色。我们应转变思路，因为目前的市场已经不再被石油产业所垄断。所以这是一个巨大的变革，这在欧洲和日本都有体现。对这些国家的石油产业来说，市场不再增长，石油消费很可能因为气候变化政策的不足而下降，因为随着不足越来越明显，气候变化政策将会得到加强。”
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