【NPR新闻】十年后，你是否和今天一样？(2/3)
简介：
参与方式：全文听写
Hints:
Daniel Gilbert
不同说话者换行即可~http://t1.g.hjfile.cn/listen/201301/201301051214485938531.mp3He and his colleagues wanted to investigate this idea, but first they had to figure out how. One thing they could do was just ask people how much do you think you'll change in the next decade, then wait around to see if people's predictions were right.
The problem with that is, it takes ten years.
So Gilbert says they came up with a much quicker approach. The researchers got almost 20,000 people to take some surveys. There were questions about their personality traits, their core values, and preferences. Some people were asked to look back on how they changed over the last ten years. Others were asked to predict how they thought they would change in the next decade. Then the scientists crunched the data.
We're able to determine whether, for example, 40-year-olds looking backwards remember changing more than 30-year-olds looking forwards predict they will change.
They found that people underestimated how much they will change in the future. People just didn't recognize how much their seemingly essential selves would shift and grow. And this was true whether they were in their teen years or middle-aged like Gilbert.他和他的同事们想要调查这个计划，但是首先他们需要知道如何实施。其中一点他们可以做的只是咨询人们未来十年你认为你会如何改变，然后静静等待来确认大家的预言是否正确。
而问题在于，这需要花费10年的时间来完成。
因此Gilbert说他们想到了一个更快速的方法。研究员们让将近2万人来做些调查。调查的问题包含个人特点，核心价值观，和喜好。一些人会被要求回顾他们在过去的10年里如何改变。另一些被要求预言未来10年他们会如何改变。然后科学家们对这些收集的数据进行处理。
我们能够确定，例如，是否40多岁的回顾改变的程度要大于30多岁的预估自己将会改变的程度。
他们发现人们普遍低估了他们未来改变的程度。人们只是无法认识到他们看来似乎本质的自我也会变化和成长。并且无论对于青少年或者像Gilbert这样的中年都是不争的事实。
——译文来自: quenelleamy
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